High Wind Watch 2, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
950 AM MST SAT APR 13 2013

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES TODAY
BUT WITH LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE
OVER THE WESTERN STATES. FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE WEST. THIS WILL BRING
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND GRADUALLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO
NORTHERN ARIZONA. WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE STRONG AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...RESULTING IN AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST OVER NORTHEAST ARIZONA. ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED...MAINLY ON TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WESTERLY FLOW IS INCREASING ACROSS NORTHERN AZ THIS
MORNING...WITH SFC WINDS ALREADY PICKING UP. STILL EXPECTING MILD
TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGHS 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE MID-APRIL
NORMS...AND A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. TODAYS FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
NO UPDATES NEEDED. MODEL TRENDS INDICATE ANOTHER WINDY DAY
SUNDAY...BUT NOT QUITE AS WINDY AS EARLIER ANTICIPATED. WIND GUSTS
MAY NOT REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA (40+ MPH GUSTS) OVER A WIDESPREAD
AREA. HOWEVER...MONDAY LOOKS VERY WINDY OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA. WILL LIKELY NEED AN ADVISORY FOR MOST ZONES WITH HIGH WIND
WARNING CRITERIA GUSTS (58+ MPH) POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF EAST
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST AZ...INCLUDING SHOW LOW...SAINT JOHNS...
WINSLOW. WILL CONSIDER A HIGH WIND WATCH IN THESE AREAS WITH THIS
AFTERNOONS PACKAGE.

.PREV DISCUSSION...(330 AM MST)...
FORECAST MODELS IN NEAR PERFECT AGREEMENT IN MOVING A COLD TROUGH
ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. FOR
TODAY...THE FIRST HINT OF THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS. THE MAIN
IMPACT FOR ARIZONA WILL BE AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH
WITH GUST NEAR 40 MPH. OTHERWISE...THE MOISTURE OBSERVED ON FRIDAY
WILL PUSH INTO NEW MEXICO WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS TO CONTEND
WITH. MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WESTERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER ARIZONA
AS THE COLD TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED...WITH
SOME LOCALIZED GUSTS CLOSE TO 60 MPH OVER THE LITTLE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY ON MONDAY. THIS COULD LEAD TO TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES FOR
NORTHEAST ARIZONA WITH THE HIGH WINDS AND AREAS OF DENSE BLOWING
DUST. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TOWARD THE ARIZONA/UTAH BORDER THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE MOST RECENT MODEL
FORECASTS HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND TOWARD A SHARPER AND COLDER
TROUGH AFFECTING ARIZONA. LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM NORTHWARD IF THIS TREND CONTINUES. WE
HAVE ADJUSTED THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS UPWARD ACCORDINGLY.
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY HAVE ALSO BEEN LOWERED A BIT BUT WILL BE
LOWERED FURTHER IF THE SHARP TROUGH SOLUTION CONTINUES. LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER ROUND OF 40+ MPH GUSTS ON TUESDAY FOR EASTERN ARIZONA WITH
LESS WIND BY WEDNESDAY...BUT STAY TUNED AS THIS COULD CHANGE AS WE
GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY...SUSTAINED 15 TO 20 KTS GUSTING 25 TO 35 KTS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THIS
WEEKEND. ON SUNDAY...A SEASONABLY STRONG PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE INTO
THE WESTERN STATES BRINGING STRONG WINDS TO NORTHERN ARIZONA.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ON SUNDAY FOR MOST
FIRE WEATHER ZONES NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE PACIFIC LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO ARIZONA ON MONDAY WITH CONTINUED STRONG WINDS AND LOW CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE UTAH BORDER REGION ON MONDAY. BY
TUESDAY...STRONG WINDS CONTINUE WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS
INCREASING ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM PRESCOTT TO WINDOW ROCK.
ON WEDNESDAY THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST AND THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH WITH BREEZY DAY TIME NORTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA. ARIZONA FIRE
ZONES...AZZ109/110/112-114/140.

&&

PUBLIC.........JJ / MCCOLLUM
AVIATION.......BOHLIN
FIRE WEATHER...MAS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>