Flash Flood Warning 47, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
410 AM MST TUE SEP 10 13

.SYNOPSIS...THE WET MONSOON WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS WESTERN ARIZONA AND
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT. SHARPLY LOWER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FROM THURSDAY ONWARD AS DRIER AIR
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...RADAR AND AT IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOW
SCATTERED SHOWERS EAST OF I-17 AND HIGHWAY 89 DUE TO THE NORTHWARD
MOVEMENT OF A SHORTWAVE. THE LARGER SCALE UPPER LOW IS SITTING OVER
NW ARIZONA. WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY NOW IS ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. AREAS OF FOG EXIST...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND SHOULD COME AND GO THROUGH MID MORNING.

PROGS HOLD THE UPPER LOW OVER NW ARIZONA THROUGH TONIGHT. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS WEST OF A LINE FROM KAYENTA TO
HOLBROOK THRU SHOW LOW GIVEN THE RAINFALL OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS AND
TODAYS EXPECTED PRECIP AMOUNTS. PROGS ARE BRINGING IN DRIER AIR
THIS AFTERNOON TO EASTERN AZ BEHIND THE WAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH. EXPECT ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE GREATEST RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS
WESTERN AZ THROUGH THIS EVENING.

WEDNESDAY...PROGS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE
INTO UTAH AND ALLOW DRIER AIR TO SLOWLY INVADE WESTERN ARIZONA.
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL LINGER FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE EVENING.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
PROGS ARE MOVING THE UPPER LOW CIRCULATION AWAY FROM AZ BUT KEEP A
WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. DEEP
NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ALOFT THEN MOVES FOR THE WEEKEND AND PUSHES
ANY REMAINING MOISTURE TO THE NEW MEXICO LINE. AT THIS TIME WE
EXPECT SCATTERED DAYTIME STORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE RIM THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AND THEN JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORM FOR EASTERN AZ FOR
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION....FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...EXPECT AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM NORTHWARD THIS MORNING PRODUCING
INTERMITTENT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL AFFECT NORTHERN
AZ EAST OF A LINE FROM KOV7 TO KPAN...ISOLD SHRA/TSRA TO THE WEST OF
THE LINE UNTIL 15Z. INCREASING SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE EXPECTED FROM
15Z-18Z...SHRA/TSRA WILL BECOME NUMEROUS. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY. HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE ISOLD IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES.
SHRA/TSRA DECREASING TO SCT ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER BREAKS IN
THE CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO DEVELOP
AND LINGER THROUGH DAY BREAK.  AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH TODAY 11 AM MST THROUGH 11 PM MST
AZ ZONES 004>009-012-013-015-016-018-037>040.

&&

PUBLIC.....DL
AVIATION...TEC

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
330 AM MST TUE SEP 10 2013

AZZ004>018-037>040-110700-
KAIBAB PLATEAU-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-
COCONINO PLATEAU-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-CHINLE VALLEY-
CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-
OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-BLACK MESA AREA-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
330 AM MST TUE SEP 10 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...
NORTHERN GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN
ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT TODAY FROM 11 AM THROUGH 11 PM MST
FOR AREAS WEST OF A LINE FROM KAYENTA TO HOLBROOK THROUGH SHOW LOW.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY AND AND
SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.
LOOK FOR DECREASING MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE ACROSS
WESTERN ARIZONA STARTING THURSDAY. MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BE PUSHED
SLOWLY EASTWARD WITH TIME THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.