Flash Flood Warning 45, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

914 
WGUS75 KFGZ 082102
FFSFGZ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
202 PM MST SUN SEP 8 2013

AZC005-082109-
/O.EXP.KFGZ.FF.W.0045.000000T0000Z-130908T2100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
COCONINO AZ-
202 PM MST SUN SEP 8 2013

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 200 PM MST FOR EXTREME
NORTH CENTRAL COCONINO COUNTY...

THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR ANTELOPE CANYON NEAR PAGE HAS EXPIRED
AS RECENT HEAVY RAINS HAVE ENDED ON THE DRAINAGE. ANY FLOOD FLOWS
WILL BE SUBSIDING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
TONIGHT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL. 

LAT...LON 3694 11144 3692 11136 3686 11137 3686 11144

$$

DJO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
930 AM MST SUN SEP 8 2013

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH A WET PATTERN LASTING THROUGH MID WEEK.
SOME AREAS MAY RECEIVE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND EXPAND IN AREA ACROSS NRN AZ THIS
MORNING. SO FAR...PCPN RATES AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN VERY
LIGHT. GIVEN THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND VERY STABLE SOUNDING IT
MAY BE DIFFICULT TO GENERATE MUCH STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS THE
REGION...HOWEVER THE COVERAGE AND DURATION OF RAINFALL EXPECTED TODAY
COULD STILL RESULT IN FLOODING POTENTIAL.

WITH RAIN COVERAGE EXPANDING WILL UPDATE POPS FOR THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION (345 AM)...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS
ARIZONA THIS MORNING BETWEEN THE CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE AND WEAK
TROUGHING DEVELOPING JUST TO OUR WEST. THE PLUME OF HIGHER
PRECIPITABLE WATER WITH VALUES FROM 1" TO AROUND 1.5" EXTENDS FROM
MEXICO ACROSS ARIZONA AND INTO SOUTHERN UTAH. IN ADDITION...WEAK
TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN AZ MAY BRING SOME LIFT TO THE
REGION TODAY. INSTABILITY MAY STRUGGLE DUE TO COOL BOUNDARY LAYER AND
CLOUDS...BUT POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND
FLASH FLOODING TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING...MAINLY FOR
YAVAPAI...COCONINO...NRN GILA COUNTIES. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS.

THE WEAK TROUGH WILL LINGER JUST WEST OF THE STATE THROUGH MIDWEEK
BEFORE SLOWLY LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY STILL LOOK WET...WITH A POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...PINPOINTING THE AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN THREAT
IS TRICKY AS SOME MODELS CONTINUE TO SHIFT THE AXIS OF HIGHEST PW
INTO FAR EASTERN AZ OR NEW MEXICO AS EARLY AS LATE MONDAY. FOR THIS
REASON...WE WILL LET LATER SHIFTS DETERMINE THE NEED FOR FURTHER
FLOOD WATCHES BEYOND TONIGHT. WITH THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AROUND...
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
TUESDAY. AS THE TROUGH MOVES NORTHEASTWARD...DRIER AIR SHOULD MOVE
INTO THE REGION...DECREASING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...SCT-NMRS SHRA THIS MORNING WITH
SCT MVFR CONDITIONS. ACTIVITY FCST TO INCREASE AND BECOME NMRS BY
18Z ACROSS N AZ WITH LESS COVERAGE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. ISOLD
+TSRA ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLOUD DECKS WILL RANGE
FROM 3-7KFT IN MOST AREAS...BUT PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE AREAS WILL SEE
MORE PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS WITH BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS. SHRA/TSRA
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TODAY FROM
11 AM UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST FOR AZZ004>009-012-015-016-018-037-038.

&&

PUBLIC.....DB/JJ
AVIATION...MCS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
830 AM MST SUN SEP 8 2013

AZZ004>018-037>040-090330-
KAIBAB PLATEAU-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-
COCONINO PLATEAU-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-CHINLE VALLEY-
CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-
OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-BLACK MESA AREA-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
830 AM MST SUN SEP 8 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...
NORTHERN GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN
ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

DEEP MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION FROM MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY...WITH A
RISK OF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING. MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.