Flash Flood Warning 37, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
325 PM MST THU AUG 29 2013

.SYNOPSIS...DEEP MONSOON MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER ARIZONA
THROUGH SUNDAY. A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING VERY
HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS INTO ARIZONA AND PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FROM LABOR DAY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL MONSOON ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE THIS
AFTERNOON...STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA...
THROUGH EAST CENTRAL AZ AND INTO NEW MEXICO. MOISTURE VALUES HAVE
CREPT UP EVEN MORE THAN WHAT THEY WERE THIS MORNING...OVER ONE INCH
ON THE MOGOLLON RIM AND CLOSE TO 2 INCHES IN FAR SW YAVAPAI COUNTY.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM THE FLAGSTAFF AREA
WESTWARD...AND THIS IS WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF SOME LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...INCLUDING YAVAPAI AND
WESTERN COCONINO. STORM DEVELOPING IN WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND APACHE
COUNTY AZ ARE ALSO PUSHING WESTWARD...AND MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE WINSLOW AND FLAGSTAFF AREAS BY MID EVENING.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE TROUGH LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE REGION WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PERSISTING. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY...SOME WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. BY SUNDAY...SOME DRIER AIR IS
FORECAST TO WORK INTO THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA...INCLUDING THE WHITE MTNS AND GILA COUNTY. WE DECREASED RAIN
CHANCES SOMEWHAT IN THIS AREA...BUT LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO ADJUST
DOWNWARD EVEN MORE. THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF STORMS WILL SHIFT TO THE
AREA FROM AROUND FLAGSTAFF NORTHWARD.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...WITH A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER
AZ. THE EXTREME MOISTURE LEVELS WE HAVE TODAY WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE BRINGING US BACK TO A MORE NORMAL MONSOON PRECIPITATION
PATTERN BY WEDNESDAY. EXPECT A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION..FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE
THIS EVENING THROUGH 04Z...WITH MVFR/ISOLATED IFR IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS. EXPECT ISOLATED -SHRA/TSRA CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.  STORMS
WILL REDEVELOP AFT 18Z FRIDAY...MOST NUMEROUS SOUTH AND WEST OF A
LINE FROM KPGA TO KSOW. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC.....JJ
AVIATION...BK

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1045 AM MST THU AUG 29 2013

AZZ004>018-037>040-300600-
KAIBAB PLATEAU-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-
COCONINO PLATEAU-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-CHINLE VALLEY-
CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-
OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-BLACK MESA AREA-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
1045 AM MST THU AUG 29 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...
NORTHERN GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN
ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. THE
MAIN THREATS WILL BE FROM LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AND ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS
IN EFFECT FOR YAVAPAI COUNTY UNTIL 11 PM MST. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA INCREASING
COVERAGE FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP...AND
MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THIS WEEKEND. THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE FROM HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.