Flash Flood Warning 24, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
940 AM MST THU AUG 2 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN EAST OF ARIZONA WELL INTO NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL CONTINUE A MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE
STATE WITH DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE KFGZ SOUNDING SHOWED SLIGHT DRYING IN THE LAST 24
HOURS (0.97 VS 0.88 INCHES PWAT). HOWEVER...BOTH THE TUCSON AND
PHOENIX SOUNDINGS SHOWED ABOUT 0.20 INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN CAPE. THE REMNANTS FROM A LARGE
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER SONORA LAST EVENING ARE MOVING NORTHWARD
OVER WESTERN ARIZONA THIS MORNING. BLYTHE SHOWED AN 11 DEGREE F JUMP
IN DEWPOINT TEMPERATURE FROM 8 TO 9 AM WITH A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND.
WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO DAY TO INCREASE POPS OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION OF OUR CWA TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF NORTHERN AZ FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN AROUND 18Z AND MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. MVFR CEILINGS AND/OR
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. EXPECT GRADUALLY
DECREASING STORM COVERAGE FROM 00-04Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DEEPER MOISTURE HAS MOVED INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA. EXPECT INCREASED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF A LINE FROM FREDONIA TO BLACK CANYON CITY. THREATS TO
OPERATIONS ARE HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING. AREAS EAST OF THIS LINE ARE
A BIT DRIER AND SHOULD SEE A GUSTY CHARACTER TO THE AFTERNOON
WINDS.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. THE GREATEST STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE
ACROSS NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC.........MAS
AVIATION.......AT
FIRE WEATHER...DL

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
558 AM MST FRI AUG 2 2013

AZZ004>018-037>040-030700-
KAIBAB PLATEAU-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-
COCONINO PLATEAU-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-CHINLE VALLEY-
CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-
OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-BLACK MESA AREA-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
558 AM MST FRI AUG 2 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...
NORTHERN GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN
ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AMPLE MOISTURE REMAINS OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT IN NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL
ARIZONA WITH LESS COVERAGE IN WESTERN COCONINO COUNTY AND WESTERN
YAVAPAI COUNTY. WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL RESULT IN SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. LOCALIZED
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY PERSISTENT STORMS...AS WELL AS
HAIL AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

MONSOON MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA RESULTING IN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1220 PM MST FRI AUG 02 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 SE PAGE               36.85N 111.39W
08/01/2013                   COCONINO           AZ   PARK SERVICE

            FLASH FLOODING REPORTED IN ANTELOPE CANYON

&&

EVENT NUMBER FGZ1300065

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