Flash Flood Warning 23, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

320 
WGUS75 KFGZ 012348
FFSFGZ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
448 PM MST THU AUG 1 2013

AZC005-020045-
/O.CON.KFGZ.FF.W.0023.000000T0000Z-130802T0045Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
COCONINO AZ-
448 PM MST THU AUG 1 2013

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM MST FOR NORTH
CENTRAL COCONINO COUNTY...

AT 442 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
HEAVY RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNING AREA AT THIS TIME. 
HOWEVER...FLOOD WATERS UPSTREAM OF HIGHWAY 98 ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT 
THE ANTELOPE CREEK DRAINAGE THROUGH THE NEXT HOUR.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO ANTELOPE
CANYON NEAR SR 98...PAGE...LE CHEE AND BIG FIVE

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING STREAMS AND DRAINAGES...
ANTELOPE CREEK...COLORADO RIVER...SAND WASH...KAIBITO CREEK AND PEACH
WASH.

&&

LAT...LON 3675 11148 3695 11147 3696 11133 3667 11122
      3662 11141

$$

MCS

426 
WGUS75 KFGZ 020044
FFSFGZ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
544 PM MST THU AUG 1 2013

AZC005-020052-
/O.EXP.KFGZ.FF.W.0023.000000T0000Z-130802T0045Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
COCONINO AZ-
544 PM MST THU AUG 1 2013

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 545 PM MST FOR NORTH
CENTRAL COCONINO COUNTY...

HEAVY RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNING AREA WITH ANY ELEVATED WATER 
LEVELS IN ANTELOPE CANYON EXPECTED TO RECEDE OVER THE NEXT HOUR.

LAT...LON 3675 11148 3695 11147 3696 11133 3667 11122
      3662 11141

$$

MCS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
925 PM MST WED JUL 31 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS A
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHEAST. DAYTIME THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY RELATIVE TO
COVERAGE SEEN THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WE UPDATED THE FORECAST GRIDS EARLIER THIS EVENING TO REFLECT
GREATER PRECIP CHANCES IN SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES TOWARD NORTHERN AZ FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. IN ADDITION...AN MCV IS APPARENT IN SOUTHWEST NAVAJO
COUNTY. WE RAISED OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN ANTICIPATION
OF THICK CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /330 PM MST/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED FROM
NEAR DESERT VIEW AT THE GRAND CANYON...MOGOLLON RIM...TO THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS TODAY. THE STORMS ARE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE LCR THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.

VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWED SEVERAL UPPER DISTURBANCES OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO THIS MORNING. THESE DISTURBANCES ARE MORNING NORTHWARD AND
MAY WELL CONTINUE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WELL INTO THE NIGHT OVER
NORTHERN ARIZONA. THE 17Z RUN OF THE HRRR SHOWED RAIN SHOWERS
RE-DEVELOPING OVER THE RIM COUNTRY LATE THIS EVENING. HAVE KEPT
CHANCE POPS GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER MUCH
OF NORTHERN ARIZONA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN EAST OF ARIZONA FOR THE NEXT WEEK. ARIZONA
WILL BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE HIGH WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE STATE. THE GFS AND EC ARE AT ODDS ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE
WILL MOVE OVER THE STATE AND IF/WHEN SIGNIFICANT DRYING WILL HAPPEN.
FORECAST LEANS MORE TOWARD THE EC GIVEN HOW IT HAS HANDLED THE
WETTER PATTERN SO FAR THIS SUMMER.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE EACH DAY ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN REMAIN FAIRLY CONSTANT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...MONSOON MOISTURE IS ON THE INCREASE.
AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF A
KPAN/KFLG/KRQE LINE. MVFR VISIBILITY MAY OCCUR IN AREAS OF
RAINFALL. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN ON THURSDAY AFTER 18Z
WITH THE ATTENDANT THREATS OF LOWERED VISIBILITY AND GUSTY WINDS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL PUSH BACK ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC.........AT/MAS
AVIATION.......AT
FIRE WEATHER...MCCOLLUM

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
525 AM MST THU AUG 1 2013

AZZ004>018-037>040-020700-
KAIBAB PLATEAU-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-
COCONINO PLATEAU-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-CHINLE VALLEY-
CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-
OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-BLACK MESA AREA-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
525 AM MST THU AUG 1 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...
NORTHERN GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN
ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

DEEP MONSOON MOISTURE HAS RETURNED TO NORTHERN ARIZONA. WEAK
STEERING FLOW WILL RESULT IN SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.  LOCALIZED FLOODING AND ENHANCED
RUNOFF WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY PERSISTENT STORMS...AS WELL AS HAIL
AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

FROM FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY WITH TYPICAL DAILY VARIATIONS IN THE DAILY THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE EXPECTED THEREAFTER. LOW TO MID GRADE MONSOON PATTERN LOOKS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.