Severe Thunderstorm Warning 4, NWS Grand Forks, ND

052 
WWUS53 KFGF 190449
SVSFGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1149 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

MNC029-087-107-119-190515-
/O.CON.KFGF.SV.W.0004.000000T0000Z-130519T0515Z/
MAHNOMEN MN-NORMAN MN-CLEARWATER MN-POLK MN-
1149 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
POLK...WEST CENTRAL CLEARWATER...NORTHEASTERN NORMAN AND NORTHERN
MAHNOMEN COUNTIES UNTIL 1215 AM CDT...

AT 1146 PM CDT...A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM FERTILE TO 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CLEARBROOK...AND
MOVING TO THE SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...DAMAGE TO VEHICLES AND CROPS IS POSSIBLE.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  WINGER AROUND 1155 PM CDT.
  RINDAL AROUND MIDNIGHT CDT.
  FLAMING AROUND 1210 AM CDT.
  RANUM AND LENGBY AROUND 1215 AM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
ARE OCCURRING WITH THE STORMS. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. LIGHTNING
KILLS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO
BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 4743 9638 4761 9630 4775 9544 4748 9554
TIME...MOT...LOC 0449Z 042DEG 15KT 4750 9627 4762 9552

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...<50MPH

$$
SPEICHER

164 
WWUS53 KFGF 190512
SVSFGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1212 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

MNC029-087-107-119-190523-
/O.EXP.KFGF.SV.W.0004.000000T0000Z-130519T0515Z/
MAHNOMEN MN-NORMAN MN-CLEARWATER MN-POLK MN-
1212 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN POLK...WEST
CENTRAL CLEARWATER...NORTHEASTERN NORMAN AND NORTHERN MAHNOMEN
COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 1215 AM CDT...

THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR
PROPERTY.

LAT...LON 4743 9638 4761 9630 4775 9544 4748 9554
TIME...MOT...LOC 0513Z 042DEG 15KT 4742 9637 4755 9562

$$

TG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1006 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1006 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX APPROACHING FROM THE WEST IS SLOWING DOWN
(WAS MOVING AROUND 20 KNOTS AN HOUR AGO...NOW MOVING AROUND 10
KNOTS). THIS IS CAUSING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...BUT ALSO MEANS THAT
THIS COMPLEX MAY NOT QUITE MAKE IT INTO THE FA. SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW IS INCREASING AS THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS
EAST...AND THIS IS LIKELY HALTING THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THIS
COMPLEX. 01Z HRRR STALLS THIS COMPLEX AND ACTUALLY DISSIPATES THE
ACTIVITY. THE MAIN FOCUS OVERNIGHT APPEARS THAT IT WILL COME FROM
THE SOUTH ALONG WITH INTENSE MOISTURE ADVECTION. SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED
POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ABOVE THINKING. THE SEVERE THREAT STILL
APPEARS LIMITED FOR THIS FA. THE STORMS JUST WEST OF THE FA ARE
SEVERE...BUT THE SLOWING MOVEMENT WILL LIKELY WEAKEN THESE STORMS.
THE LOW LEVEL JET FOR LATER TONIGHT IS ONLY AROUND 25-30
KNOTS...AND ANY SEVERE THREAT GIVEN THE WEAKER INSTABILITY SHOULD
BE LIMITED.

THE MAIN CONCERN IS LIKELY FLASH FLOOD/HEAVY RAIN GIVEN THE SLOW
STORM MOVEMENT ALONG WITH PWATS APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES. WILL
MENTION LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN IN THE GRIDS...BUT A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IS NOT NEEDED IF THE ACTIVITY FROM THE WEST FALLS APART
BEFORE THE SOUTHERN ACTIVITY MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

ALL EYES ON ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTN-EVE IN SE
ND-WCNTRL MN. SFC MAP SHOWS A BROAD SFC LOW IN THE MOBRIDGE SD
AREA WITH A BOUNDARY (COULD BE CALLED A WARM FRONT) FROM MOBRIDGE
TO OAKES THEN TO VALLEY CITY THEN TO HILLSBORO THEN EAST TO NORTH
OF DTL-PKD-BRD THEN INTO FAR NW WISCONSIN. IN FAR SE ND AND
ADJACENT PARTS OF WCNTRL CLOUDS CLEARED OUT ENOUGH TODAY FOR SFC
HEATING AND TEMPS IN THE 77 TO 81 DEGREE RANGE. SATELLITE SHOWS
WHAT APPEARS TO BE A CUMULUS CLOUD BOUNDARY FROM HILLSBORO TO
ALONG CLAY-NORMAN CO LINE TO NORTH OF PARK RAPIDS. SOUTH WINDS
SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE NR 10-13 KTS WHILE NORTH WINDS 5-8 KTS
NORTH OF THIS FEATURE. SPC SHOWS LITTLE CIN AND 1500 J/KG CAPE AND
SUFFICIENT BULK SHEAR. BUT UPPER LEVELS DONT SHOW ANY BIG THING TO
SET STUFF OFF. 17-18Z HRRR REFLECTIVITY DOES SHOW ONE CELL TRYING
TO GET GOING IN NORMAN CO. MN 22-23Z PD BUT THEN IT DISSIPATES
THIS EVE.

MUCH OF NORTHEAST SD HAS SEEN HIGH CLOUDS TODAY AND DEW PTS IN THE
50S AND SPC DOES HAVE SOME SFC BASED CIN IN THIS REGION. THUS MAY
BE HARD TO GET ANYTHING GOING THERE. BUT HRRR WANTS TO GENERATE
SOME ACTIVITY AXN-STC AREA BY 03Z.

ALSO SOME STORMS NR BLACK HILLS IN WRN SD. SOME WRF MODELS
INDICATE THIS AREA ORGANIZING MUCH LIKE LAST EVENING AND MOVING
EAST-NORTHEAST INTO SE ND-WCNTRL MN OVERNIGHT. SO VARIOUS
SCENERIOS TO PLAY OUT.

OVERALL WOULD EXPECT ORGANIZATION OF SOME ACTIVITY THIS EVE IN
ND/SD/MN BORDER REGIONS AND THEN SPREAD NORTH AND EAST TONIGHT SO
WILL STICK WITH HIGH POPS TONIGHT THOUGH CONFIDENCE AT ANY ONE
HOUR IS LOW. ALSO QPF AMOUNT IS NOT CERTAIN. PLUS ONLY AREA THAT
MUCH MORE THAN 1 INCH OF RAIN LAST NIGHT WAS EASTERN OTTER TAIL
COUNTY WITH 0.50 TO 1 INCH NRN WILKIN-SE CLAY INTO WADENA
COUNTIES. THIS AREA COULD TAKE THE RAIN. OTHERWISE...RAIN AMOUNTS
IN THE VALLEY WERE MOSTLY 0.50 OR LESS WITH A FEW EXCEPTIONS. WITH
UNCERTAINITY IN HOW THINGS WILL PLAY OUT TONIGHT DID NOT FEEL
CONFIDENT IN ISSUING ANY FLASH FLOOD WATCHES FOR OUR FCST AREA.

MODELS ACTUALLY BRING IN HIGHER PWAT (1.6) INTO AREA SUN AFTN-NIGH IN
GENERAL RAINFALL AROUND THE UPPER LOW IN SD AND THIS IS IN WHEN
MOST WIDESPREAD HEAVIER RAINFALL MAY OCCUR. THUS IF TRUE...GIVES
US TIME TO SEE WHAT FALLS THIS EVE BEFORE ISSUING ANY HEADLINES.
KEPT HIGH POPS SUNDAY INTO SUN NIGHT MOST ALL AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

UPR LOW AND SFC LOW WILL BE OVER SRN SD MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH
MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND INTO ND/NW MN MON-TUES PERIOD WITH
GENERAL RAINFALL. KEPT POPS HIGH.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE BEEN MOST CONSISTENT IN
BEGINNING TO MOVE THE STACKED NRN PLAINS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EWD
IN THE MID WEEK PERIOD. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY SHOWS THE
TAPPERING OFF OF VERY LIGHT RAIN WITH PERSISTENT NORTH-EASTERLY
BLAYER WINDS. INTRUDING DRY AIR FROM WRN ONT SHUD LEAD TO MARKEDLY
DIMINISHING CLOUD CLOVER WED EVENING. INCREASING HIGH PRESSURE
OVER WRN ONT AND THE LK SUPERIOR AREA ON THURS AND FRI SHUD SWING
WINDS FROM THE SOOUH EAST AND KEEP AN OVERALL DRYING AIRMASS OVR
THE RRV AND MOST OF MINNESOTA. A WARMIG RIDGE ALOFT AND INCREASED
LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN MT DOES INCREASE THE RISK FOR SCT SHOWERS
AND TSTMS INTO EASTERN ND BY LATE FRIDAY AND ACROSS THE FA BY
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 716 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

IFR/LIFR CIGS AFFECTING KBJI AND KDVL...WITH MVFR CIGS AFFECTING
KTVF AND KGFK...AS THESE SITE ARE WITHIN LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW.
NOT IF THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. MOST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS AND/OR SHOWERS
WILL MOVE THROUGH THESE SITES...WHICH SHOULD BRIEFLY RAISE CIGS.
UNTIL THEN...EXPECT THE LOWER CIGS TO CONTINUE. CIGS SHOULD LOWER
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH SHOWER CHANCES INCREASING. FOR
KFAR...EXPECT THUNDER CHANCES TO INCRASE BY MIDNIGHT...ALONG WITH
LOWERING CIGS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

WHEN NCRFC RAN THE MODEL TODAY USING 24 HOUR QPF IT BROUGHT SEVERAL
POINTS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. THESE INCLUDE FARGO/SABIN/DILWORTH/HAWLEY
AND HENDRUM. SINCE THESE RISES ARE BASED ON FORECAST PCPN WENT AHEAD
AND ISSUED A RIVER POINT FLOOD WATCH FOR THESE 5 POINTS. THE FORECAST
QPF ALSO BROUGHT WAHPETON/EAST GRAND FORKS AND OSLO BACK ABOVE
ACTION STAGE SO ISSUED RIVER STATEMENTS ON THESE. ONLY DRAYTON AND
PEMBINA REMAIN IN A FLOOD STATEMENT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE/GUST
AVIATION...TG
HYDROLOGY...GODON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
709 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-191215-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH-EDDY-NELSON-GRAND FORKS-
GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-RICHLAND-
WESTERN WALSH-
709 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

...SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING. LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT MORE WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES. SOME STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 200 AFTER 4PM.
THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THERE
WILL ALSO BE THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
HOWEVER THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
623 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

MNZ022-023-027-028-190030-
EAST BECKER MN-MAHNOMEN MN-SOUTH CLEARWATER MN-WEST BECKER MN-
623 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN CLEARWATER...
NORTHERN BECKER AND SOUTHEASTERN MAHNOMEN COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM
CDT...

AT 619 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
THUNDERSTORM 15 MILES NORTHEAST OF DETROIT LAKES.  THE STORM WAS
NEARLY STATIONARY.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER IS EXPECTED WITH THE STORM.

THE STORM WILL BE NEAR...
ZERKEL...TULABY LAKE AND NAYTAHWAUSH AROUND 730 PM CDT.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IF THE STORMS INTENSIFY AND BECOME
SEVERE...OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4734 9537 4695 9522 4700 9581 4720 9585
TIME...MOT...LOC 2323Z 180DEG 0KT 4698 9563

SPEICHER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
757 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0733 PM     HAIL             11 W TWO INLETS         47.05N 95.45W
05/18/2013  E0.75 INCH       BECKER             MN   PUBLIC

&&

TGRAFENA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
921 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0725 PM     HAIL             15 W TWO INLETS         47.05N 95.54W
05/18/2013  E1.00 INCH       BECKER             MN   PUBLIC

            AT TAMARAC RESORT ON ROUND LAKE

&&

TGRAFENA