Severe Thunderstorm Warning 110, NWS Grand Forks, ND

886 
WWUS53 KFGF 090850
SVSFGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
350 AM CDT MON SEP 9 2013

NDC003-073-081-090915-
/O.CON.KFGF.SV.W.0110.000000T0000Z-130909T0915Z/
BARNES ND-RANSOM ND-SARGENT ND-
350 AM CDT MON SEP 9 2013

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH CENTRAL
SARGENT...RANSOM AND SOUTHEARN BARNES COUNTIES UNTIL 415 AM CDT...

AT 346 AM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM HASTINGS TO 7 MILES EAST OF FORT RANSOM TO COGSWELL...
AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...EXPECT CONSIDERABLE TREE DAMAGE. DAMAGE IS LIKELY TO MOBILE
         HOMES...ROOFS AND OUTBUILDINGS.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  GWINNER AND LISBON AROUND 355 AM CDT.
  MILNOR AND VENLO AROUND 405 AM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4634 9732 4602 9785 4649 9783 4668 9814
      4678 9781 4663 9770 4654 9734
TIME...MOT...LOC 0849Z 229DEG 55KT 4676 9808 4655 9773
          4617 9775

HAIL...0.88IN
WIND...70MPH

$$

DTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
236 AM CDT MON SEP 9 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 AM CDT MON SEP 9 2013

QUESTION STILL TO BE ANSWERED IS HOW MUCH RAIN AND WHERE. WILL
KEEP FLOOD WATCH GOING THOUGH NOT ENTIRELY THRILLED WITH IT DUE TO
VERY DRY CURRENT CONDITIONS. PER CURRENT RADAR AND OBS DOES APPEAR
SFC LOW NORTHWEST OF HURON SD WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO JUST SOUTH OF
ABERDEEN BY 12Z MON WITH A WEAK SFC REFLECTION OF A LOW SOUTH OF
BISMARCK. PER RADAR WOULD APPEAR A MORE STRATIFORM RAIN AREA MORE
ASSOC WITH 500 MB WAVE OVER ERN MONTANA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM
GARRISON-MINOT INTO DVL BASIN THEN INTO FAR NE ND/SRN MANITOBA
DURING THE EARLY MORNING. LOW LEVEL JET PROPELLING SOME EHANCED
STORMS IN NORTH CENTRAL SD AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD WITH LINE FORMING
A BIT EAST ALONG SD/ND BORDER NORTH OF ABERDEEN. BOW ECHO NR
EUREKA SD MOVING NORTHEAST AND THIS MAY IMPACT PARTS OF SE ND PRE-
DAWN. SO OVERALL IN TERMS OF RAINFALL RATES...MAIN FALL IN BAND NR
JAMESTOWN-MOBRIDGE NORTHEASTWARD....BUT LOW LEVEL JET AND 850 MB
INSTABILITY WEAKEN QUICKLY NORTH OF I-94. AT ANY RATE WILL HAVE
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS MANY AREAS THIS
MORNING...TAPERING OFF LATE MORNING-AFTN. 3 HR UPDATES WILL BE
ABLE TO FINE TUNE RAIN AREAS AND AMOUNTS.

500 MB TROUGH TO SWING THRU NRN ND TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY GIVING
RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS PER FCST AND DID NOT CHANGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 AM CDT MON SEP 9 2013

500 MB SHORT WAVE WILL EXIT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO NE MN...THEN HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRY WEDNESDAY. WED NIGHT LOWERED TEMPS FROM ALL BLEND
GUIDANCE AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIRMASS OVERHEAD SHOULD ALLOW
FOR LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S IN NE ND/NW MN.

THURSDAY-SUNDAY...DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE WORKING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN BRINGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
NEXT WEEKEND...WITH AN ASSOCIATED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SAT/SAT NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE SYSTEM...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT SUN SEP 8 2013

LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE OVER SOUTHERN VALLEY AND TVF/BJI WILL KEEP IFR
CIGS IN PLACE UNTIL INVERTED TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH SFC LOW OVER
SD MOVES THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. TIMING OF RAIN/TSTMS ACTIVITY
STILL IN QUESTION BUT MOST LIKELY POST TROF PASSAGE EARLY TO MID
MORNING. SHOULD SEE SHIFT TO NW WINDS BY AFTN...WITH CIGS RISING
TO MVFR. TIMING/CHANCE OF ACTIVITY OVER CNTRL ND MOVING INTO DVL
MORE CHALLENGING AS IT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST. WILL
DELAY UNTIL 10Z.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-
     024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ001>009-013>017-
     022>024-027>032-040.

&&

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/RIDDLE
AVIATION...SPEICHER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
338 PM CDT SUN SEP 8 2013

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-092045-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH-EDDY-NELSON-GRAND FORKS-
GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-RICHLAND-
WESTERN WALSH-
338 PM CDT SUN SEP 8 2013

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM CDT MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF A STORM
SYSTEM DUE TO MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A
STORM SYSTEM TO FORM AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY. SIGNIFICANT AREAL RAINFALL WITH AVERAGES OF 1.50 TO
2.00 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED. HOWEVER...ANY EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS...AND THE POSSIBLE TRAINING OF THE STORMS...COULD
PRODUCE LOCALLY 3.00 INCH OR HIGHER AMOUNTS LEADING TO FLOODING
ISSUES...DEPENDING ON COVERAGE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF MONDAY MORNING. QUIET
WEATHER WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

HOPKINS