Alert archive / North Dakota / River Flood Watches in 2013

River Flood Watch 21, NWS Grand Forks, ND

October 14, 2013Cass County, North Dakota; Clay County, Minnesota

NWS Grand Forks, ND issued this river flood watch at Oct 14, 2013, 9:49 AM CDT for Cass County, North Dakota; Clay County, Minnesota. It took effect at Oct 16, 2013, 8:42 PM CDT. It was in force for 24 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Oct 14, 2013, 9:49 AM CDT (14:49 UTC)
In effect from
Oct 16, 2013, 8:42 PM CDT
Expired
Oct 17, 2013, 8:42 PM CDT
In force
24 hr
Issued by
NWS Grand Forks, ND
Area
Storm-based polygon
Flood severity
None

Counties Clay County, MN, Cass County, ND

The radar

The Fargo/Grand Forks radar (KMVX), 66 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 14:50 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The river

Written for the forecast point Red River of the North at Fargo (FGON8). The gauge peaked at 18.12 ft at Oct 18, 2013, 3:00 AM CDT.

actionminormoderate15202510/1410/1510/1610/1710/1810/19
Action stage
17 ft
Minor stage
18 ft
Moderate stage
25 ft
Major stage
30 ft

This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests

Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 05054000, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

596 
WGUS63 KFGF 141449
FFAFGF


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA/GRAND FORKS ND
949 AM CDT MON OCT 14 2013

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS, ND HAS ISSUED A FLOOD
WATCH FOR THESE RIVER LOCATIONS IN MINNESOTA AND NORTH DAKOTA...

  * WAHPETON...ON THE RED RIVER...IN WILKIN AND RICHLAND COUNTIES
  * FARGO...ON THE RED RIVER...IN CLAY AND CASS COUNTIES
  * SABIN...ON THE SO BR BUFFALO RIVER...IN CLAY COUNTY
  * DILWORTH...ON THE BUFFALO RIVER...IN CLAY COUNTY

.ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM ENTERING THE PLAINS STATES WILL BRING MORE
RAINFALL TO THE REGION THROUGH TODAY AND TOMORROW. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR OVER 2 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. THIS 
WILL BE ON TOP OF ALREADY SATURATED SOIL. IF RAINFALL AMOUNTS REACH  
THE HIGHER END OF WHAT IS FORECAST...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR THE ADDITIONAL 
WATER TO SOAK INTO THE SOIL. RUNOFF FROM THE RAIN COULD BRING SOME POINTS 
TO MINOR FLOOD STAGE ALONG THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER AND PORTIONS OF THE 
WILD RICE...SOUTH BUFFALO...AND BUFFALO RIVERS.  

 THE SEGMENTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE RIVER FORECASTS FOR SELECTED
 LOCATIONS IN THE WATCH AREA...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN... 
 
 - DON'T TRAVEL THROUGH FLOODED AREAS!

 - PERSONS LIVING IN THE RED RIVER BASIN SHOULD MONITOR RIVER 
   LEVELS WHILE THE RIVER IS IN...OR NEAR...FLOOD.

 - LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TV 
   FOR THE LATEST UPDATES.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...GO TO THE AHPS/RIVER SECTION 
ON OUR WEB PAGE AT:      WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GRANDFORKS



&&

MNZ029-NDZ053-160249-
/O.NEW.KFGF.FL.A.0020.131016T0000Z-131019T1200Z/
/WHNN8.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
949 AM CDT MON OCT 14 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS, ND HAS ISSUED A
* FLOOD WATCH FOR
  THE RED RIVER AT WAHPETON
* FROM TUESDAY EVENING TO SATURDAY MORNING.
* AT  8:30 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 4.8 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...FLOOD STAGE MAY BE REACHED BY TUESDAY EVENING.


&&

DAILY 7 AM CDT/6 AM CST FORECAST STAGE IN FEET:

 DATE                TUE    WED    THU    FRI    SAT    SUN    MON
(MONTH/DAY)         10/15  10/16  10/17  10/18  10/19  10/20  10/21

RED RIVER
  WAHPETON           7.9   11.1   11.1    9.7    8.2    6.6    5.6


LAT...LON 4602 9672 4603 9641 4650 9663 4650 9684


$$

MNZ003-NDZ039-160249-
/O.NEW.KFGF.FL.A.0021.131017T0142Z-000000T0000Z/
/FGON8.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
949 AM CDT MON OCT 14 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS, ND HAS ISSUED A
* FLOOD WATCH FOR
  THE RED RIVER AT FARGO
* FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT  8:00 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 14.7 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 18.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...FLOOD STAGE MAY BE REACHED BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.


&&

DAILY 7 AM CDT/6 AM CST FORECAST STAGE IN FEET:

 DATE                TUE    WED    THU    FRI    SAT    SUN    MON
(MONTH/DAY)         10/15  10/16  10/17  10/18  10/19  10/20  10/21

RED RIVER
  FARGO             15.4   16.8   19.1   21.2   22.0   21.3   19.6


LAT...LON 4715 9673 4724 9683 4724 9694 4676 9689 4677 9671


$$

MNZ003-160249-
/O.NEW.KFGF.FL.A.0022.131016T0000Z-131020T0336Z/
/SABM5.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
949 AM CDT MON OCT 14 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS, ND HAS ISSUED A
* FLOOD WATCH FOR
  THE SO BR BUFFALO RIVER AT SABIN
* FROM TUESDAY EVENING TO SATURDAY EVENING.
* AT  8:45 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 6.6 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...FLOOD STAGE MAY BE REACHED BY TUESDAY EVENING.


&&

DAILY 7 AM CDT/6 AM CST FORECAST STAGE IN FEET:

 DATE                TUE    WED    THU    FRI    SAT    SUN    MON
(MONTH/DAY)         10/15  10/16  10/17  10/18  10/19  10/20  10/21

S. BUFFALO RIVER
  SABIN              9.3   13.5   13.9   12.7   10.9    9.5    8.6


LAT...LON 4663 9666 4663 9650 4686 9657 4689 9670


$$

MNZ003-160249-
/O.NEW.KFGF.FL.A.0023.131017T1700Z-131021T2136Z/
/DILM5.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
949 AM CDT MON OCT 14 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS, ND HAS ISSUED A
* FLOOD WATCH FOR
  THE BUFFALO RIVER NEAR DILWORTH
* FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO MONDAY OCTOBER 21.
* AT  8:30 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 4.8 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...FLOOD STAGE MAY BE REACHED BY THURSDAY EARLY AFTERNOON.


&&

DAILY 7 AM CDT/6 AM CST FORECAST STAGE IN FEET:

 DATE                TUE    WED    THU    FRI    SAT    SUN    MON
(MONTH/DAY)         10/15  10/16  10/17  10/18  10/19  10/20  10/21

BUFFALO RIVER
  DILWORTH           6.8   10.8   11.0   16.1   16.3   12.6    9.4


LAT...LON 4715 9682 4704 9681 4689 9669 4684 9652 4692 9650


$$
6 follow-up statements
834 
WGUS63 KFGF 150139
FFAFGF


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA/GRAND FORKS ND
839 PM CDT MON OCT 14 2013

...THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR THESE RIVER LOCATIONS IN 
MINNESOTA...NORTH DAKOTA...

  * WAHPETON...ON THE RED RIVER...IN WILKIN AND RICHLAND COUNTIES
  * FARGO...ON THE RED RIVER...IN CLAY AND CASS COUNTIES
  * SABIN...ON THE SO BR BUFFALO RIVER...IN CLAY COUNTY
  * DILWORTH...ON THE BUFFALO RIVER...IN CLAY COUNTY
  * ABERCROMBIE...ON THE WILD RICE RIVER (ND)...IN RICHLAND COUNTY

.ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM ENTERING THE PLAINS STATES WILL BRING MORE
RAINFALL TO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR OVER 2 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER
VALLEY. THIS WILL BE ON TOP OF ALREADY SATURATED SOIL. IF RAINFALL
AMOUNTS REACH THE HIGHER END OF WHAT IS FORECAST...IT WILL BE
DIFFICULT FOR THE ADDITIONAL WATER TO SOAK INTO THE SOIL. RUNOFF
FROM THE RAIN COULD BRING SOME POINTS TO MINOR FLOOD STAGE ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE RED RIVER...AND PORTIONS OF THE 
WILD RICE...SOUTH BUFFALO...AND BUFFALO RIVERS.

 THE SEGMENTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE RIVER FORECASTS FOR SELECTED
 LOCATIONS IN THE WATCH AREA...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN... 
 
 - DON'T TRAVEL THROUGH FLOODED AREAS!

 - PERSONS LIVING IN THE RED RIVER BASIN SHOULD MONITOR RIVER 
   LEVELS WHILE THE RIVER IS IN...OR NEAR...FLOOD.

 - LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TV 
   FOR THE LATEST UPDATES.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...GO TO THE AHPS/RIVER SECTION 
ON OUR WEB PAGE AT:      WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GRANDFORKS

THIS FORECAST DOES NOT ACCOUNT FOR ICE JAMS THAT CAN 
QUICKLY RAISE LOCAL RIVER LEVELS WITH LITTLE OR NO NOTICE.

&&

MNZ029-NDZ053-161339-
/O.CON.KFGF.FL.A.0020.131016T0500Z-131019T1200Z/
/WHNN8.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
839 PM CDT MON OCT 14 2013

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR
  THE RED RIVER AT WAHPETON
* FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY MORNING.
* AT 7:30 PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 5.1 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...FLOOD STAGE MAY BE REACHED BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&
 
DAILY 7 PM CDT/6 PM CST FORECAST STAGE IN FEET:

 DATE                TUE    WED    THU    FRI    SAT    SUN    MON
(MONTH/DAY)         10/15  10/16  10/17  10/18  10/19  10/20  10/21

RED RIVER
  WAHPETON           9.0   11.5   10.4    9.0    7.3    6.0    5.3


LAT...LON 4602 9672 4603 9641 4650 9663 4650 9684


$$

MNZ003-NDZ039-161339-
/O.CON.KFGF.FL.A.0021.131017T0142Z-000000T0000Z/
/FGON8.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
839 PM CDT MON OCT 14 2013

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR
  THE RED RIVER AT FARGO
* FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT 8:00 PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 15.1 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 18.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...FLOOD STAGE MAY BE REACHED BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&
 
DAILY 7 PM CDT/6 PM CST FORECAST STAGE IN FEET:

 DATE                TUE    WED    THU    FRI    SAT    SUN    MON
(MONTH/DAY)         10/15  10/16  10/17  10/18  10/19  10/20  10/21

RED RIVER
  FARGO             16.2   17.8   20.2   21.8   21.9   20.6   18.7


LAT...LON 4715 9673 4724 9683 4724 9694 4676 9689 4677 9671


$$

MNZ003-161339-
/O.CON.KFGF.FL.A.0022.131016T0000Z-131020T0336Z/
/SABM5.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
839 PM CDT MON OCT 14 2013

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR
  THE SO BR BUFFALO RIVER AT SABIN
* FROM TUESDAY EVENING TO SATURDAY EVENING.
* AT 7:45 PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 6.8 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...FLOOD STAGE MAY BE REACHED BY TUESDAY EVENING.

&&
 
DAILY 7 PM CDT/6 PM CST FORECAST STAGE IN FEET:

 DATE                TUE    WED    THU    FRI    SAT    SUN    MON
(MONTH/DAY)         10/15  10/16  10/17  10/18  10/19  10/20  10/21

S. BUFFALO RIVER
  SABIN             12.0   14.0   13.4   11.8   10.1    9.0     M 


LAT...LON 4663 9666 4663 9650 4686 9657 4689 9670


$$

MNZ003-161339-
/O.CON.KFGF.FL.A.0023.131017T1700Z-131021T2136Z/
/DILM5.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
839 PM CDT MON OCT 14 2013

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR
  THE BUFFALO RIVER NEAR DILWORTH
* FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO MONDAY OCTOBER 21.
* AT 7:30 PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 4.9 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...FLOOD STAGE MAY BE REACHED BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&
 
DAILY 7 PM CDT/6 PM CST FORECAST STAGE IN FEET:

 DATE                TUE    WED    THU    FRI    SAT    SUN    MON
(MONTH/DAY)         10/15  10/16  10/17  10/18  10/19  10/20  10/21

BUFFALO RIVER
  DILWORTH           9.9   10.2   13.6   16.5   14.6   10.8     M 


LAT...LON 4715 9682 4704 9681 4689 9669 4684 9652 4692 9650


$$

NDZ053-161339-
/O.CON.KFGF.FL.A.0024.131016T1900Z-131019T1900Z/
/ABRN8.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
839 PM CDT MON OCT 14 2013

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR
  THE WILD RICE RIVER (ND) AT ABERCROMBIE
* FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT  8:15 PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 1.4 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...FLOOD STAGE MAY BE REACHED BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&
 
DAILY 7 PM CDT/6 PM CST FORECAST STAGE IN FEET:

 DATE                TUE    WED    THU    FRI    SAT    SUN    MON
(MONTH/DAY)         10/15  10/16  10/17  10/18  10/19  10/20  10/21

WILD RICE RIVER
  ABERCROMBIE        7.1   10.5   10.9    8.9    7.0    6.5    6.4


LAT...LON 4611 9712 4612 9664 4663 9679 4663 9696


$$
424 
WGUS63 KFGF 151410
FFAFGF


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA/GRAND FORKS ND
910 AM CDT TUE OCT 15 2013

...THE FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED FOR THESE RIVER LOCATIONS IN NORTH 
DAKOTA...

  * ABERCROMBIE...ON THE WILD RICE RIVER (ND)...IN RICHLAND COUNTY

...THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR THESE RIVER LOCATIONS IN 
MINNESOTA...NORTH DAKOTA...

  * WAHPETON...ON THE RED RIVER...IN WILKIN AND RICHLAND COUNTIES
  * FARGO...ON THE RED RIVER...IN CLAY AND CASS COUNTIES
  * SABIN...ON THE SO BR BUFFALO RIVER...IN CLAY COUNTY
  * DILWORTH...ON THE BUFFALO RIVER...IN CLAY COUNTY

.ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS TO KEEP FOUR RIVER FORECAST POINTS IN FLOOD WATCH STATUS AT THIS TIME. 
IT IS NOW EVIDENT THAT THE WILD RICE RIVER AT ABERCROMBIE WILL PULL UP SHORT OF MINOR FLOOD. THUS
THE WATCH IS CANCELLED FOR THIS POINT. 

 THE SEGMENTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE RIVER FORECASTS FOR SELECTED
 LOCATIONS IN THE WATCH AREA...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN... 
 
 - DON'T TRAVEL THROUGH FLOODED AREAS!

 - PERSONS LIVING IN THE RED RIVER BASIN SHOULD MONITOR RIVER 
   LEVELS WHILE THE RIVER IS IN...OR NEAR...FLOOD.

 - LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TV 
   FOR THE LATEST UPDATES.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...GO TO THE AHPS/RIVER SECTION 
ON OUR WEB PAGE AT:      WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GRANDFORKS

&&

MNZ029-NDZ053-170210-
/O.CON.KFGF.FL.A.0020.131016T1017Z-131019T1200Z/
/WHNN8.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
910 AM CDT TUE OCT 15 2013

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR
  THE RED RIVER AT WAHPETON
* FROM LATE TONIGHT TO SATURDAY MORNING.
* AT  8:30 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 6.2 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...FLOOD STAGE MAY BE REACHED BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

DAILY 7 AM CDT/6 AM CST FORECAST STAGE IN FEET:

 DATE                WED    THU    FRI    SAT    SUN    MON    TUE
(MONTH/DAY)         10/16  10/17  10/18  10/19  10/20  10/21  10/22

RED RIVER
  WAHPETON          10.2   10.9    9.6    8.2    6.6    5.6    5.3


LAT...LON 4602 9672 4603 9641 4650 9663 4650 9684


$$

MNZ003-NDZ039-170210-
/O.CON.KFGF.FL.A.0021.131017T1312Z-000000T0000Z/
/FGON8.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
910 AM CDT TUE OCT 15 2013

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR
  THE RED RIVER AT FARGO
* FROM THURSDAY MORNING UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT  8:00 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 15.5 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 18.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...FLOOD STAGE MAY BE REACHED BY THURSDAY MID-MORNING.

&&

DAILY 7 AM CDT/6 AM CST FORECAST STAGE IN FEET:

 DATE                WED    THU    FRI    SAT    SUN    MON    TUE
(MONTH/DAY)         10/16  10/17  10/18  10/19  10/20  10/21  10/22

RED RIVER
  FARGO             16.6   17.9   19.7   20.9   20.7   19.3   17.7


LAT...LON 4715 9673 4724 9683 4724 9694 4676 9689 4677 9671


$$

MNZ003-170210-
/O.CON.KFGF.FL.A.0022.131016T0900Z-131020T0336Z/
/SABM5.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
910 AM CDT TUE OCT 15 2013

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR
  THE SO BR BUFFALO RIVER AT SABIN
* FROM LATE TONIGHT TO SATURDAY EVENING.
* AT  8:45 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.4 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...FLOOD STAGE MAY BE REACHED BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

DAILY 7 AM CDT/6 AM CST FORECAST STAGE IN FEET:

 DATE                WED    THU    FRI    SAT    SUN    MON    TUE
(MONTH/DAY)         10/16  10/17  10/18  10/19  10/20  10/21  10/22

S. BUFFALO RIVER
  SABIN             12.4   14.0   13.4   11.8   10.2    9.2    8.4


LAT...LON 4663 9666 4663 9650 4686 9657 4689 9670


$$

MNZ003-170210-
/O.CON.KFGF.FL.A.0023.131017T1500Z-131021T2136Z/
/DILM5.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
910 AM CDT TUE OCT 15 2013

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR
  THE BUFFALO RIVER NEAR DILWORTH
* FROM THURSDAY MORNING TO MONDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT  8:30 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 5.1 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...FLOOD STAGE MAY BE REACHED BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

DAILY 7 AM CDT/6 AM CST FORECAST STAGE IN FEET:

 DATE                WED    THU    FRI    SAT    SUN    MON    TUE
(MONTH/DAY)         10/16  10/17  10/18  10/19  10/20  10/21  10/22

BUFFALO RIVER
  DILWORTH           7.9   11.5   15.5   16.5   14.9   11.5    9.1


LAT...LON 4715 9682 4704 9681 4689 9669 4684 9652 4692 9650


$$

NDZ053-151440-
/O.CAN.KFGF.FL.A.0024.000000T0000Z-131019T1900Z/
/ABRN8.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
910 AM CDT TUE OCT 15 2013

THE FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE WILD RICE RIVER (ND) AT ABERCROMBIE
* AT  8:15 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 2.3 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO REACH A MAXIMUM STAGE OF 9.5 
  FEET BY THURSDAY EVENING.


&&

DAILY 7 AM CDT/6 AM CST FORECAST STAGE IN FEET:

 DATE                WED    THU    FRI    SAT    SUN    MON    TUE
(MONTH/DAY)         10/16  10/17  10/18  10/19  10/20  10/21  10/22

WILD RICE RIVER
  ABERCROMBIE        8.0    9.1    9.4    7.2    5.1    4.3    3.9


LAT...LON 4611 9712 4612 9664 4663 9679 4663 9696


$$
WJB
356 
WGUS63 KFGF 160233
FFAFGF


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA/GRAND FORKS ND
933 PM CDT TUE OCT 15 2013

...THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR THESE RIVER LOCATIONS IN 
MINNESOTA...NORTH DAKOTA...

  * FARGO...ON THE RED RIVER...IN CLAY AND CASS COUNTIES
  * SABIN...ON THE SO BR BUFFALO RIVER...IN CLAY COUNTY
  * DILWORTH...ON THE BUFFALO RIVER...IN CLAY COUNTY

.A FLOOD WATRCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE RED RIVER AT FARGO...THE
SOUTH BRANCH OF THE BUFFALO RIVER AT SABIN AND THE BUFFALO RIVER AT 
DILWORTH. 

 THE SEGMENTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE RIVER FORECASTS FOR SELECTED
 LOCATIONS IN THE WATCH AREA...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN... 
 
 - DON'T TRAVEL THROUGH FLOODED AREAS!

 - PERSONS LIVING IN THE RED RIVER BASIN SHOULD MONITOR RIVER 
   LEVELS WHILE THE RIVER IS IN...OR NEAR...FLOOD.

 - LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TV 
   FOR THE LATEST UPDATES.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...GO TO THE AHPS/RIVER SECTION 
ON OUR WEB PAGE AT: WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GRANDFORKS

THIS FORECAST DOES NOT ACCOUNT FOR ICE JAMS THAT CAN 
QUICKLY RAISE LOCAL RIVER LEVELS WITH LITTLE OR NO NOTICE.

&&

MNZ003-NDZ039-171433-
/O.CON.KFGF.FL.A.0021.131017T1312Z-000000T0000Z/
/FGON8.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
933 PM CDT TUE OCT 15 2013

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR
  THE RED RIVER AT FARGO
* FROM THURSDAY MORNING UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT 8:00 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 16.6 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 18.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...FLOOD STAGE MAY BE REACHED BY THURSDAY MID-MORNING.

&&
 
DAILY 7 PM CDT/6 PM CST FORECAST STAGE IN FEET:

 DATE                WED    THU    FRI    SAT    SUN    MON    TUE
(MONTH/DAY)         10/16  10/17  10/18  10/19  10/20  10/21  10/22

RED RIVER
  FARGO             17.2   18.8   20.4   21.0   20.1   18.4   17.0


LAT...LON 4715 9673 4724 9683 4724 9694 4676 9689 4677 9671


$$

MNZ003-171433-
/O.CON.KFGF.FL.A.0022.131016T1424Z-131020T0336Z/
/SABM5.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
933 PM CDT TUE OCT 15 2013

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR
  THE SO BR BUFFALO RIVER AT SABIN
* FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING TO SATURDAY EVENING.
* AT 8:45 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.9 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...FLOOD STAGE MAY BE REACHED BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&
 
DAILY 7 PM CDT/6 PM CST FORECAST STAGE IN FEET:

 DATE                WED    THU    FRI    SAT    SUN    MON    TUE
(MONTH/DAY)         10/16  10/17  10/18  10/19  10/20  10/21  10/22

S. BUFFALO RIVER
  SABIN             13.3   13.8   12.6   10.9    9.5    8.7    8.1


LAT...LON 4663 9666 4663 9650 4686 9657 4689 9670


$$

MNZ003-171433-
/O.CON.KFGF.FL.A.0023.131017T1654Z-131021T2136Z/
/DILM5.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
933 PM CDT TUE OCT 15 2013

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR
  THE BUFFALO RIVER NEAR DILWORTH
* FROM THURSDAY MORNING TO MONDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT 8:30 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 5.8 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...FLOOD STAGE MAY BE REACHED BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING.

&&
 
DAILY 7 PM CDT/6 PM CST FORECAST STAGE IN FEET:

 DATE                WED    THU    FRI    SAT    SUN    MON    TUE
(MONTH/DAY)         10/16  10/17  10/18  10/19  10/20  10/21  10/22

BUFFALO RIVER
  DILWORTH           9.0   13.3   16.3   16.1   13.3   10.1    8.3


LAT...LON 4715 9682 4704 9681 4689 9669 4684 9652 4692 9650


$$
827 
WGUS63 KFGF 161431
FFAFGF


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA/GRAND FORKS ND
931 AM CDT WED OCT 16 2013

...THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR THESE RIVER LOCATIONS IN 
MINNESOTA...NORTH DAKOTA...

  * FARGO...ON THE RED RIVER...IN CLAY AND CASS COUNTIES
  * SABIN...ON THE SO BR BUFFALO RIVER...IN CLAY COUNTY
  * DILWORTH...ON THE BUFFALO RIVER...IN CLAY COUNTY

 
 
.COLD TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT HAVE SLOWED THE RUNOFF...RIVER RESPONSE 
 EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES WARM...THEN 
 SLOW DOWN AGAIN OVERNIGHT.  PEAK FLOWS ARE EXPECTED TO COME IN 
 LOWER... HOWEVER...HIGHER FLOWS THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR SHOULD 
 CONTINUE FOR A LONGER DURATION... AS WATER MAKES ITS WAY
 THROUGH THE SYSTEM.  THEREFORE FLOOD WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE PAIR
 OF MINNESOTA TRIBUTARIES AS WELL AS FARGO.  

 THE SEGMENTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE RIVER FORECASTS FOR SELECTED
 LOCATIONS IN THE WATCH AREA...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN... 
 
 - DON'T TRAVEL THROUGH FLOODED AREAS!

 - PERSONS LIVING IN THE RED RIVER BASIN SHOULD MONITOR RIVER 
   LEVELS WHILE THE RIVER IS IN...OR NEAR...FLOOD.

 - LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TV 
   FOR THE LATEST UPDATES.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...GO TO THE AHPS/RIVER SECTION 
ON OUR WEB PAGE AT:      WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GRANDFORKS

&&

MNZ003-NDZ039-180231-
/O.CON.KFGF.FL.A.0021.131017T1200Z-000000T0000Z/
/FGON8.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
931 AM CDT WED OCT 16 2013

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR
  THE RED RIVER AT FARGO
* FROM THURSDAY MORNING UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT  8:00 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 17.2 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 18.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...FLOOD STAGE MAY BE REACHED BY THURSDAY MID-MORNING.

&&

DAILY 7 AM CDT/6 AM CST FORECAST STAGE IN FEET:

 DATE                THU    FRI    SAT    SUN    MON    TUE    WED
(MONTH/DAY)         10/17  10/18  10/19  10/20  10/21  10/22  10/23

RED RIVER
  FARGO             18.0   18.8   18.9   18.2   17.4   16.7   16.0


LAT...LON 4715 9673 4724 9683 4724 9694 4676 9689 4677 9671


$$

MNZ003-180230-
/O.CON.KFGF.FL.A.0022.131017T1500Z-131020T0336Z/
/SABM5.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
931 AM CDT WED OCT 16 2013

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR
  THE SO BR BUFFALO RIVER AT SABIN
* FROM THURSDAY MORNING TO SATURDAY EVENING.
* AT  8:45 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.6 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...FLOOD STAGE MAY BE REACHED BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

DAILY 7 AM CDT/6 AM CST FORECAST STAGE IN FEET:

 DATE                THU    FRI    SAT    SUN    MON    TUE    WED
(MONTH/DAY)         10/17  10/18  10/19  10/20  10/21  10/22  10/23

S. BUFFALO RIVER
  SABIN             11.9   12.5   12.3   11.9   11.1   10.1    8.9


LAT...LON 4663 9666 4663 9650 4686 9657 4689 9670


$$

MNZ003-180230-
/O.CON.KFGF.FL.A.0023.131018T1600Z-131021T2136Z/
/DILM5.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
931 AM CDT WED OCT 16 2013

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR
  THE BUFFALO RIVER NEAR DILWORTH
* FROM FRIDAY MORNING TO MONDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT  8:30 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.3 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...FLOOD STAGE MAY BE REACHED BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

DAILY 7 AM CDT/6 AM CST FORECAST STAGE IN FEET:

 DATE                THU    FRI    SAT    SUN    MON    TUE    WED
(MONTH/DAY)         10/17  10/18  10/19  10/20  10/21  10/22  10/23

BUFFALO RIVER
  DILWORTH           9.8   11.8   12.8   12.9   12.1   11.3   10.5


LAT...LON 4715 9682 4704 9681 4689 9669 4684 9652 4692 9650


$$
WJB
816 
WGUS63 KFGF 170237
FFAFGF


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA/GRAND FORKS ND
937 PM CDT WED OCT 16 2013

...THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR THESE RIVER LOCATIONS IN 
MINNESOTA...NORTH DAKOTA...

  * FARGO...ON THE RED RIVER...IN CLAY AND CASS COUNTIES
  * SABIN...ON THE SO BR BUFFALO RIVER...IN CLAY COUNTY
  * DILWORTH...ON THE BUFFALO RIVER...IN CLAY COUNTY

 
.A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR RIVERS AT FARGO...SABIN AND DILWORTH. 

 THE SEGMENTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE RIVER FORECASTS FOR SELECTED
 LOCATIONS IN THE WATCH AREA...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN... 
 
 - DON'T TRAVEL THROUGH FLOODED AREAS!

 - PERSONS LIVING IN THE RED RIVER BASIN SHOULD MONITOR RIVER 
   LEVELS WHILE THE RIVER IS IN...OR NEAR...FLOOD.

 - LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TV 
   FOR THE LATEST UPDATES.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...GO TO THE AHPS/RIVER SECTION 
ON OUR WEB PAGE AT: WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GRANDFORKS


&&

MNZ003-NDZ039-181437-
/O.CON.KFGF.FL.A.0021.131017T1800Z-000000T0000Z/
/FGON8.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
937 PM CDT WED OCT 16 2013

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR
  THE RED RIVER AT FARGO
* FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT 8:00 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 17.5 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 18.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...FLOOD STAGE MAY BE REACHED BY THURSDAY EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&
 
DAILY 7 PM CDT/6 PM CST FORECAST STAGE IN FEET:

 DATE                THU    FRI    SAT    SUN    MON    TUE    WED
(MONTH/DAY)         10/17  10/18  10/19  10/20  10/21  10/22  10/23

RED RIVER
  FARGO             18.1   18.7   18.3   17.7   16.9   16.3   15.9


LAT...LON 4715 9673 4724 9683 4724 9694 4676 9689 4677 9671


$$

MNZ003-181437-
/O.CON.KFGF.FL.A.0022.131018T0600Z-131020T0336Z/
/SABM5.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
937 PM CDT WED OCT 16 2013

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR
  THE SO BR BUFFALO RIVER AT SABIN
* FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY EVENING.
* AT 8:45 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 11.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...FLOOD STAGE MAY BE REACHED BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&
 
DAILY 7 PM CDT/6 PM CST FORECAST STAGE IN FEET:

 DATE                THU    FRI    SAT    SUN    MON    TUE    WED
(MONTH/DAY)         10/17  10/18  10/19  10/20  10/21  10/22  10/23

S. BUFFALO RIVER
  SABIN             11.8   12.3   12.0   11.4   10.6    9.5    8.5


LAT...LON 4663 9666 4663 9650 4686 9657 4689 9670


$$

MNZ003-181437-
/O.CON.KFGF.FL.A.0023.131018T1600Z-131021T2136Z/
/DILM5.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
937 PM CDT WED OCT 16 2013

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR
  THE BUFFALO RIVER NEAR DILWORTH
* FROM FRIDAY MORNING TO MONDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT 8:30 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.5 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...FLOOD STAGE MAY BE REACHED BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

&&
 
DAILY 7 PM CDT/6 PM CST FORECAST STAGE IN FEET:

 DATE                THU    FRI    SAT    SUN    MON    TUE    WED
(MONTH/DAY)         10/17  10/18  10/19  10/20  10/21  10/22  10/23

BUFFALO RIVER
  DILWORTH          10.8   12.3   13.0   12.5   11.7   10.9   10.0


LAT...LON 4715 9682 4704 9681 4689 9669 4684 9652 4692 9650


$$
526 
WGUS63 KFGF 171745
FFAFGF


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA/GRAND FORKS ND
1245 PM CDT THU OCT 17 2013

...THE FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED FOR THESE RIVER LOCATIONS IN 
MINNESOTA...NORTH DAKOTA...

.THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN SUPERSEDED BY A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE 
RED RIVER OF THE NORTH FORECAST POINT AT FARGO. 

 THE SEGMENTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE RIVER FORECASTS FOR SELECTED
 LOCATIONS IN THE WATCH AREA...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN... 
 
 - DON'T TRAVEL THROUGH FLOODED AREAS!

 - PERSONS LIVING IN THE RED RIVER BASIN SHOULD MONITOR RIVER 
   LEVELS WHILE THE RIVER IS IN...OR NEAR...FLOOD.

 - LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TV 
   FOR THE LATEST UPDATES.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...GO TO THE AHPS/RIVER SECTION 
ON OUR WEB PAGE AT:      WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GRANDFORKS

&&

MNZ003-NDZ039-171815-
/O.CAN.KFGF.FL.A.0021.131017T1800Z-000000T0000Z/
/FGON8.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
1245 PM CDT THU OCT 17 2013

THE FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE RED RIVER AT FARGO
* AT 12:00 PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 18.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO REACH A MAXIMUM STAGE OF 18.5 
  FEET BY FRIDAY EARLY AFTERNOON.
* THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN SUPERSEDED BY A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE 
  RED RIVER OF THE NORTH FORECAST POINT AT FARGO.

&&

DAILY 7 AM CDT/6 AM CST FORECAST STAGE IN FEET:

 DATE                FRI    SAT    SUN    MON    TUE    WED    THU
(MONTH/DAY)         10/18  10/19  10/20  10/21  10/22  10/23  10/24

RED RIVER
  FARGO             18.4   18.5   18.0   17.3   16.6   16.2   16.0


LAT...LON 4715 9673 4724 9683 4724 9694 4676 9689 4677 9671


$$
WJB

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this river flood watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood watch went out at Oct 14, 7:03 AM CDT, 2 hours 46 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 14, 7:03 AM CDT, 2 hours 46 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
703 AM CDT MON OCT 14 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 703 AM CDT MON OCT 14 2013

INITIAL BAND OF RAIN PROGRESSING INTO THE NORTHERN FA. THERE IS A
BREAK IN ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA...BUT THE NEXT AREA OF
RAINFALL IS APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH. MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS/WX FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS AND TIMING FROM 10Z
HRRR. MOST ASPECTS OF THE FORECAST APPEAR ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON OCT 14 2013

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THINKING FOR THE RAIN EVENT TODAY INTO TUESDAY.
UPPER LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. THE FRONTOGENESIS/WARM AIR ADVECTION LIGHT RAIN
(CURRENTLY ACROSS THE REGION) WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BY 12Z...WITH
STRONG 850MB FLOW TAKING OVER ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THERE
IS ALREADY AN AREA OF RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA THAT
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND INTO MUCH OF THE FA BY 18Z.
PERIODIC RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY UNTIL THE SYSTEM
PROPAGATES FAR ENOUGH EAST AND THE MOISTURE ADVECTION IS CUT OFF.
CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS HIGH...AND INCREASED POPS TO
NEAR 100% FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA INTO WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA WILL BE WITHIN THE STRONGEST FORCING
(FRONTOGENESIS...WARM AIR ADVECTION...DEFORMATION) WITH 2.00-2.50
INCHES OF RAINFALL EXPECTED. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL DECREASE TO THE
NORTH...AWAY FROM THE UPPER LOW AND STRONGEST FORCING. THE AREA
WHERE 2+ INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED HAS BEEN WET OVER THE PAST
COUPLE WEEKS...AND THE EXPECTED RAINFALL WOULD CAUSE A FEW RIVER
POINTS TO APPROACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE (SEE HYDRO SECTION). THE
OTHER CONCERN WILL BE WIND SPEEDS. EASTERLY WINDS TODAY COULD BE
BREEZY...BUT CROSS VALLEY WILL KEEP SPEEDS BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST...WINDS SHIFT NORTH. 00Z MODELS
INDICATE 925MB WINDS NEAR 35 KNOTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY ON
TUESDAY AS WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY...WHICH WILL BRING SPEEDS TO NEAR
ADVISORY CRITERIA. THIS IS STILL A DAY OUT AND WILL MONITOR FUTURE
MODEL RUNS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON OCT 14 2013

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WEAK RIDGING TUESDAY NIGHT COULD
LEAD TO FREEZING TEMPERATURES (DEPENDING ON CLEARING AND WIND
SPEEDS). A WEAK UPPER TROUGH COULD LEAD TO -RA WED NIGHT.

THURSDAY-SUNDAY...FROPA EARLY THURSDAY TO BRING COOLEST AIR OF
THE SEASON DOWN WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO NEGATIVE 2C TO 8C BY
FRIDAY MORNING. CYCLONIC FLOW AND CAA SHOULD GENERATE SOME RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS SO KEPT THE SCHC AND CHC POPS FOR THURS AND FRI
AFTERNOONS. AS 500MB TROUGH CONTINUES EAST A MODERATING THERMAL
PROFILE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO INCREASE SOME FOR THE
WEEKEND...NONETHELESS THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL BE BELOW MID
OCT NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 703 AM CDT MON OCT 14 2013

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE LOWERING CONDITIONS AS STEADY RAIN
MOVES INTO THE REGION TODAY. EXPECT AT LEAST IFR CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP IN ALL AREAS BY MID-AFTERNOON. EASTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE AND GUST TO AROUND 25KT AFTER 18Z AND CONTINUE TONIGHT
TURNING MORE NORTHEASTERLY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON OCT 14 2013

MOISTURE LADEN STORM SYSTEM TO PRODUCE A PROLONGED RAIN EVENT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN VALLEY WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIDE SPREAD
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 2.5 INCHES. GIVEN THE RECENT WET PERIOD OF
THE LAST MONTH OR SO WHERE THE AREA HAS RECEIVED 200 TO 300
PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL...4 TO 6 INCHES...SOILS ARE SATURATED AND
RUNOFF INTO THE RIVER SYSTEMS SHOULD OCCUR RATHER EFFICIENTLY.
THIS MAY ALLOW ENOUGH RUNOFF FOR LOCATIONS ALONG THE RED RIVER
FROM WAHPETON TO FARGO...THE BUFFALO RIVER BASIN IN MN AND THE
WILD RICE RIVER BASIN IN ND TO SEE RIVER RISES OVER FLOOD STAGE BY
MID WEEK. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN EXACTLY HOW MUCH RAINFALL WILL BE
ABSORBED INTO THE SOIL AND HOW MUCH WILL RUNOFF...GREATLY
AFFECTING ANY RISE IN RIVER LEVELS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/JK
AVIATION...TG
HYDROLOGY...JK
Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 14, 4:01 AM CDT, 5 hours 48 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
401 AM CDT MON OCT 14 2013

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-151200-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH-EDDY-NELSON-GRAND FORKS-
GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-RICHLAND-
WESTERN WALSH-
401 AM CDT MON OCT 14 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER
VALLEY...WHERE 2 TO 2.5 INCHES IS EXPECTED. THIS COULD CAUSE MINOR
LOW LAND FLOODING ISSUES. THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

RAIN WILL COME TO AN END ON TUESDAY. RUNOFF FROM THIS SYSTEM HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE MINOR RIVER FLOODING FOR LOCATIONS ALONG
THE RED RIVER FROM WAHPETON TO FARGO...THE BUFFALO RIVER BASIN IN
MINNESOTA...AND THE WILD RICE RIVER BASIN IN NORTH DAKOTA.

FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

RAINFALL REPORTS WILL BE APPRECIATED.

TG

The office that day

Everything else NWS Grand Forks, ND issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 14, 9:49 AM CDTRiver Flood WatchFGFRichland5 days
Oct 14, 9:54 AM CDTRiver Flood WatchFGFRichland5 days
Oct 14, 9:49 AM CDTRiver Flood WatchFGFClay6 days
Oct 14, 9:49 AM CDTRiver Flood WatchFGFClay7 days

Nearby

River Flood Watches in North Dakota, 2013River Flood Watches in Minnesota, 2013Every river flood watch in 2013

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.