River Flood Warning 14, NWS Grand Forks, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
347 PM CDT THU APR 25 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT THU APR 25 2013

HIGH PRESSURE OVER IOWA WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE FCST AREA
THIS AFTN-EVE. LOW CLOUDS OVER ERN FCST AREA DID BREAK UP EARLY TO
MID AFTN...AND JUST SOME CIRRUS MOVING THROUGH. TEMPS UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S REGION...COLDEST SPOT LANGDON.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS SHORT WAVE OVER ERN MONTANA AT 20Z AND THIS WILL
MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST THRU SRN ND THIS EVENING AND INTO CNTRL MN
LATER TONIGHT. SOME MID CLOUDS WITH THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH. GFS/NAM HAVE A FEW SPITS OF PRECIP WITH THIS
FEATURE BUT MAINTAINED DRY FCST AS MOISTURE IS LIMITED TO AOA 8000
FT.

FRIDAY TO SEE A GOOD DEAL OF SUN WITH A LIGHT WEST WIND AND 925 MB
TEMPS IN THE 3 TO 5C RANGE AND WITH 925 MB TEMPS RISING TO 3 TO
12C AT 925 MB. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO WARM TEMPS 8 TO 12 DEG
ABOVE TODAYS LEVELS WITH LOWER TO MID 50S IN MOST AREAS...THOUGH
SOME DEEP SNOWPACK AREAS MAY HANG TOUGH IN THE UPPER 40S CANDO-LANGDON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT THU APR 25 2013

NEXT LOW MOVES INTO CNTRL SASK SATURDAY WITH A GOOD SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WIND GRADIENT SETTING UP LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE PSBL BUT OTHERWISE WITH GOOD MIXING AND
925 MB TEMPS RISING WELL INTO THE TEENS THE IDEA OF LOWER TO MID
60S STILL SEEM REASONABLE...WITH A FEW UPR 50S IN DEEP SNOWPACK
CANDO-LANGDON.

AS LOW MOVES NORTH OF THE BORDER SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY A TROUGH
WILL MOVE THROUGH. MOISTURE LIMITED BUT DOES APPEAR A BIT BETTER
MOISTURE FOR A FEW SHOWERS PSBL SUN AFTN IN THE FAR EASTERN FCST
AREA.

LOOKING AT GOOD SYNERGY AMONG GFS/ECMWF/GEM DURING SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY FORECAST PERIOD BEGINNING WITH APPROACHING
CYCLONE NORTH OF BORDER LATER MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SOME MONDAY OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NOW WOULD
EXIST EAST OF THE VALLEY WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND
SPEED CONVERGENCE OVER NW MINNESOTA COINCIDENT WITH NEGATIVE
SHOWALTERS. AMOUNT OF WRAPAROUND ON TUESDAY STILL IN DOUBT...HAVE
LOW POPS IN THERE FOR THAT TIME PERIOD. WHAT IS MORE CERTAIN IS A
COOL DOWN FOR LAST TWO DAYS OF THE EXTENDED AS BROAD UPPER TROUGH
CARVES OUT AND BRINGS 850 MB TEMPS IN THE VICINITY OF -10C OVER
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER TO PREVAIL
MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT THU APR 25 2013

WEAK COOL FRONT/TROUGH TO SWING THROUGH KDVL LATER TONIGHT
REACHING THE VALLEY AND POINTS EAST FRI MORNING. MAIN THRUST IS TO
VEER WINDS FROM SOUTH TO WEST...NO PCPN IS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE
JUST MID CLOUD ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
OVERALL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT THU APR 25 2013

RIVER FORECAST UPDATES CONTINUE AS RIVERS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
RISE...BUT RISES WILL PICK UP RAPIDLY IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS AS
TEMPERATURES WARM. MAY NEED TO CONSIDER AREAL FLOOD WATCHES FRI
AFTN INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE RAPID SNOW MELT WILL CAUASE A RUSH OF
WATER INTO THE DITCHES...STREAMS...RIVERS AND LAKES...ESP OVER
DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND THE MINNESOTA TREE AREA WHERE DEEP SNOWCOVER
STILL EXISTS.  NO CHANGE ATTM FOR FARGO AND LEFT 38-40 FT CREST
PREDICTION. ALTHOUGH MODELS PAST 24 HRS HAVE GREATLY BACKED OFF ON
MODERATE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM POSSIBILITIES IN THE SOUTHERN BASIN
MON NIGHT IT DOES APPEAR TO BE A LESS OF A THREAT WITH 12Z RUNS.
BUT STILL WANT TO WAIT ANOTHER DAY TO SEE THE IMPACT OF ANY WILD
RICE RUNOFF AND TO SOLIDIFY MODEL CHANGES BEFORE MAKING FARGO
CREST CHANGES.

AS RUNOFF RAMPS UP EXPECT NEW RIVER POINT FLOOD WARNINGS/STATEMENTS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE BASIN TO BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...WJB/RIDDLE
AVIATION...WJB
HYDROLOGY...HOPPES/RIDDLE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
618 AM CDT THU APR 25 2013

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-261130-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH-EDDY-NELSON-GRAND FORKS-
GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-RICHLAND-
WESTERN WALSH-
618 AM CDT THU APR 25 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SPRING SNOW MELT RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE SOUTHERN RED
RIVER AND ITS TRIBUTARIES. REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS AND
STATEMENTS FOR DETAILED INFORMATION ON SPECIFIC LOCATIONS.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SPRING SNOW MELT RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE RED RIVER
AND ITS TRIBUTARIES. REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS AND
STATEMENTS FOR DETAILED INFORMATION ON SPECIFIC LOCATIONS.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.