Areal Flood Advisory 21, NWS Grand Forks, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
634 PM CDT SUN AUG 25 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT SUN AUG 25 2013

WILL UPDATE AVIATION DISCUSSION...NO CHANGES TO GRIDS WITH STORMS
DEVELOPING IN HUBBARD COUNTY ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT SUN AUG 25 2013

FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PERIODIC PCPN CHANCES AND
TEMPERATURES/HEAT INDICES. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ALTHOUGH
DIFFERENCES IN SURFACE LOW PLACEMENT TONIGHT AND MONDAY WILL
DETERMINE FAVORED LOCATION FOR CONVECTION AND WILL USE BLEND FOR
FORECAST.

FOR TONIGHT MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH BOUNDARY PLACEMENT BY
EVENING FROM SURFACE LOW NEAR ND/SD BORDER AREA EASTWARD. THIS
AREA CURRENTLY STRONGLY CAPPED SO CONVECTIVE INITIATION MAY TAKE
SOME TIME. APPEARS TO BE A WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE IN CENTRAL SD WHICH
MAY AID IN DEVELOPMENT ALTHOUGH FEATURE LOOKS WEAK AND CAP STRONG.
WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT HIGHEST POPS IN THIS AREA. APPEARS TO BE
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE LIFTING NE THROUGH WYOMING. THIS FEATURE MAY
LIFT INTO NORTHERN FA LATER TONIGHT HOWEVER WITH MORE STABLE
AIRMASS WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOT EXPECTING ANY PCPN WITH
THIS FEATURE. DOES NOT LOOK TO BE ANY CHANGE IN AIRMASS WITH UPPER
RIDGE IN PLACE SO WILL BE ANOTHER WARM MUGGY NIGHT ACROSS MOST OF
THE FA.

ANOTHER WAVE OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN CA/NEVADA TO RIDE OVER UPPER PERIPHERY OF
PERSISTENT RIDGE AFFECTING THE FA LATER TOMORROW. MODELS HAVE BEEN
DIFFERING ON ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW/BOUNDARY PLACEMENT FROM RUN TO
RUN. FOR THIS WILL KEEP PRETTY CLOSE TO CURRENT POP LAYOUT. COLUMN
REMAINS VERY WARM AND HUMID AND WILL CONTINUE THE NEED TO MONITOR
FOR ANY POTENTIAL HEAT ADVISORY AREAS.

WILL LIKELY SEE SOME PCPN WORKING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS PORTION
OF FA MONDAY EVENING LIKELY WINDING DOWN LATER IN THE NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT SUN AUG 25 2013

LOOKS TO BE A BREAK IN SHORT WAVE ACTIVITY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AND WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY. WILL CONTINUE WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM... /WED NIGHT THROUGH SUN/
LONG TERM MODELS TODAY CONTINUE THE TREND OF WEAK/FLATTENED RIDGE
OVER NORTHERN TIER OF CONUS HAVING A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA...RESULTING IN CONSALL SOLUTION GIVING LONG PERIOD
OF LOW POPS. THE GEM CONTINUES TO BE SLIGHTLY DRIER THAN
ECMWF/GFS...WHICH SEEMS MORE REASONABLE WITH STRESSED CROPS
RESULTING IN LOWER ET RATES THIS SUMMER. BEST CHANCE OF ANY
CONVECTION WOULD BE WED NIGHT INTO THU TIMEFRAME AS MODELS ARE
SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT WITH A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SD AND SRN
MN. CONFIDENCE IS LOW FROM THU NIGHT ON. TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN THIS WEEKEND...BUT STILL A GOOD 5 DEG ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT SUN AUG 25 2013

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT...BUT FOR NOW HAVE LEFT IT OUT.
ALSO SOME CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE NEAR KBJI THIS EVENING...BUT HAVE
LEFT IT OUT FOR NOW.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ052-053.

MN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ029>032-040.

&&

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...SPEICHER/VOELKER
AVIATION...DK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
659 AM CDT SUN AUG 25 2013

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-261200-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH-EDDY-NELSON-GRAND FORKS-
GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-RICHLAND-
WESTERN WALSH-
659 AM CDT SUN AUG 25 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IS POSSIBLE TODAY ROUGHLY SOUTH AND
EAST OF A LINE FROM BLACKMER NORTH DAKOTA TO DORAN MINNESOTA TO
OYLEN MINNESOTA. THE STORMS WILL BE MOSTLY LIKELY AFTER THE
NOON HOUR AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND PRODUCE THE THEREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS.

ALSO THE HEAT INDEX WILL MAY APPROACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA IN
GRANT COUNTY MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE HEAT INDEX MAY AGAIN APPROACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA MONDAY
AFTERNOON  AND EVENING OVER GRANT COUNTY MINNESOTA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

HOPPES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
424 PM CDT SUN AUG 25 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     HAIL             7 S WARROAD             48.81N 95.32W
08/24/2013  M1.00 INCH       ROSEAU             MN   PUBLIC

0737 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 E ROSEAU              48.85N 95.70W
08/24/2013                   ROSEAU             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            REPORT OF MULTIPLE 20-30 FT TREES DOWN. TIME ESTIMATED
            FROM RADAR.

0740 PM     HAIL             4 S SALOL               48.81N 95.57W
08/24/2013  M2.00 INCH       ROSEAU             MN   BROADCAST MEDIA

            PUBLIC FACEBOOK REPORT RELAYED VIA MEDIA PARTNER.

0810 PM     HAIL             2 SW WARROAD            48.89N 95.35W
08/24/2013  E1.00 INCH       ROSEAU             MN   PUBLIC

            QUARTER OR SLIGHTLY LARGER SIZED HAIL JUST AFTER 8 PM

0815 PM     HAIL             7 WSW WARROAD           48.87N 95.46W
08/24/2013  E1.50 INCH       ROSEAU             MN   PUBLIC

            INFORMATION PASSED TO NWS VIA RELATIVES

0340 AM     TSTM WND DMG     6 NE VALLEY CITY        46.98N 97.92W
08/25/2013                   BARNES             ND   PUBLIC

            HAIL AND WIND CAUSED SOME CROP DAMAGE. HAIL SIZE UNKNOWN.

0353 AM     TSTM WND GST     FARGO                   46.88N 96.82W
08/25/2013  M59.00 MPH       CASS               ND   ASOS

0355 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 W KRAGNES             46.99N 96.79W
08/25/2013                   CLAY               MN   PUBLIC

            GRAIN BIN UNDER CONSTRUCTION WAS BLOWN OVER. LARGE HAIL
            TO NEAR GOLFBALL SIZE ALSO REPORTED VIA KVLY FACEBOOK
            PAGE.

0455 AM     HAIL             1 E CALLAWAY            46.98N 95.89W
08/25/2013  E1.00 INCH       BECKER             MN   PUBLIC

            ESTIMATED HAIL OF AT LEAST QUARTER SIZE. SEVERAL BRANCHES
            DOWN.

&&

DKELLENB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
631 PM CDT SUN AUG 25 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     HAIL             LAKE GEORGE             47.20N 94.99W
08/25/2013  E1.00 INCH       HUBBARD            MN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORT RELAYED FROM BELTRAMI COUNTY EM

&&

DKELLENB

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