Alert archive / Georgia / Special Weather Statements in 2013

Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

December 29, 2013Telfair County, Georgia

NWS Atlanta, GA issued this special weather statement at Dec 29, 2013, 4:30 AM EST for Telfair County, Georgia. It was in force for 30 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Dec 29, 2013, 4:30 AM EST (09:30 UTC)
Expired
Dec 29, 2013, 5:00 AM EST
In force
30 min
Issued by
NWS Atlanta, GA

County Telfair County, GA

The radar

The Robins AFB radar (KJGX), 85 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 09:34 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Atlanta, GA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Dec 29, 4:17 AM EST, 13 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Dec 29, 4:17 AM EST, 13 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
417 AM EST SUN DEC 29 2013

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND BECOMES
ABSORBED INTO THE NORTHERN SHORT WAVE BY THIS AFTERNOON...THE
SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA INTO THE CAROLINAS SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK AND CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA.  SHORT
TERM MODELS HAVE INITIALIZED PRETTY WELL AND ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT. BULK OF THE MODERATE RAIN IS CONFINED TO EAST GEORGIA
THIS MORNING...AND THUNDER IS GENERALLY NEAR THE SURFACE LOW WHERE
BEST INSTABILITY /MUCAPES 300-500/ IS LOCATED.  EXPECT LOW TO BE
EXITING EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS MORNING...AND WILL KEEP ISOLATED
THUNDER IN UNTIL 9AM.  WRAPAROUND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW
WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH
GEORGIA...GENERALLY FROM THE ATLANTA METROPOLITAN AREA AND
NORTHWARD...BUT THIS TOO SHOULD START TO DIMINISH RAPIDLY BETWEEN
8-10AM.  LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH
SCATTERING OF CLOUDS BY MIDDAY AND CLEARING BY THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOVING THE MORNING RAIN
OUT OF THE AREA AND KEEPING ANY WRAPAROUND MOISTURE NORTH OF THE
AREA LATER THIS EVENING WHEN TEMPERATURES IN NORTH GEORGIA DROP INTO
THE 30S.  GIVEN THIS AM CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO DROP ANY MENTION OF
WINTRY PRECIP ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA TONIGHT.  WINDS WILL BE TRICKY
THIS MORNING AS MODELS SHOWING A SHARP SHIFT FROM EAST TO NORTHWEST
OR WEST AS SURFACE LOW TREKS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH WEST
WINDS CONTINUING THIS AFTERNOON...WITH 925MB WINDS NEAR 20KT EXPECT
THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTS ACROSS THE AREA TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH MONDAY
WHEN NEXT SHORT WAVE APPROACHES NORTHWEST GEORGIA BY LATE
AFTERNOON.  MODELS DIVERGE ON WHETHER BEST MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS
NORTH OR SOUTH GEORGIA...HOWEVER THEY ARE CONSISTENT IN BRINGING THE
VORT LOBE ACROSS NORTHWEST GEORGIA BY LATE AFTERNOON. EVEN WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR THIS TIME AND ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR
SITUATION.

TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND UPON HOW LONG CLOUDS LINGER THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE AREA...AND WHILE GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE IN LINE HAVE
GENERALLY LEANED ON THE COOLER SIDE FOR TODAY WITH A BLEND TONIGHT
AND MONDAY...WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME MORE SEASONAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

ATWELL

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE
TRAVERSING THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT AND REESTABLISHING A NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT FOR TUESDAY. MODELS AGREE ON A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
ASSOCIATED LIGHT RAIN WITH THIS DISTURBANCE ACROSS SOUTH AND
PARTS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA MONDAY NIGHT... HOWEVER... COULD SEE SOME
PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTH
GEORGIA... SO WILL MENTION THIS POSSIBILITY THERE. SHOULD CLEAR
OUT ON TUESDAY IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING DISTURBANCE WITH DRY HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE
ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND THEREFORE RAIN CHANCES FOR THURSDAY...
WITH ECMWF TAPPING INTO SUFFICIENT GULF MOISTURE TO SPREAD
WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY.
THE GFS SHOWS A DRY REINFORCING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH NO QPF
ON THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO COMPROMISE AND SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING. BOTH MODELS AGREE ANY
LINGERING MOISTURE WILL DEPART EAST THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE THE
COLDER AIR ARRIVES THURSDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT... DRY
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THROUGH SATURDAY. /39

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA THE PAST 24 HOURS... AND
AN ADDITIONAL 1/2 TO 1 INCH IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL
GEORGIA THROUGH LATE MORNING. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COMBINED WITH
WET SOIL CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL STREAM-FLOWS WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN ADDITIONAL MINOR FLOODING ALONG SOME AREA CREEKS AND RIVERS.
THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED FOR NORTH AND WEST CENTRAL
GEORGIA THIS MORNING... AND WILL END BY THIS AFTERNOON FOR EAST
CENTRAL GEORGIA AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST.
THEREFORE... THE FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 1
PM THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE CONTINUED RISES ON SOME CREEKS AND
RIVERS. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED AT 108 AM EST SUN DEC 29 2013/
06Z UPDATE...
IFR/LIFR OVERNIGHT WITH RA/-RA EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY
EAST THROUGH 11-12Z AND SHIFT SHARPLY OUT OF WEST TO NORTHWEST AS
SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA. EXPECT
RAIN TO END QUICKLY AS WINDS SHIFTS/LOW PASSES. WINDS WILL BE
5-10KTS OUT OF THE EAST INITIALLY AND 10-14KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
OUT OF THE WEST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS/VISIBILITIES WILL
IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR AFTER 18Z

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

ATWELL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          56  39  55  33 /  70   0  10  10
ATLANTA         54  39  52  33 /  60   0  10  10
BLAIRSVILLE     48  35  47  25 /  70   5  20  20
CARTERSVILLE    51  36  48  28 /  60   5  20  10
COLUMBUS        57  40  57  36 /  50   0  10  10
GAINESVILLE     52  38  50  32 /  70   0  10  10
MACON           61  39  59  37 /  50   0  10  20
ROME            50  36  47  27 /  60   5  20  20
PEACHTREE CITY  56  37  54  30 /  50   0  10  10
VIDALIA         63  44  62  41 /  70   5  10  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BIBB...BLECKLEY...BUTTS...
CHATTAHOOCHEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COWETA...CRAWFORD...CRISP...
DEKALB...DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...FAYETTE...FORSYTH...
GLASCOCK...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...HANCOCK...HARRIS...HENRY...
HOUSTON...JACKSON...JASPER...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...
LAMAR...LAURENS...MACON...MADISON...MARION...MERIWETHER...
MONROE...MONTGOMERY...MORGAN...MUSCOGEE...NEWTON...NORTH
FULTON...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PEACH...PIKE...PULASKI...PUTNAM...
ROCKDALE...SCHLEY...SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...STEWART...SUMTER...
TALBOT...TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...
TROUP...TWIGGS...UPSON...WALTON...WARREN...WASHINGTON...
WEBSTER...WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKES...WILKINSON.

&&

SHORT TERM...ATWELL
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...ATWELL
Hazardous weather outlook, Dec 29, 3:24 AM EST, 1 hour 6 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
324 AM EST SUN DEC 29 2013

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-301030-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
324 AM EST SUN DEC 29 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN ENDING THIS MORNING...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS MORNING...
...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL
GEORGIA THROUGH MID MORNING...

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...
MAIN THREAT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING ALONG AREA CREEKS
AND RIVERS FROM HEAVY RAINS THAT OCCURRED EARLY THIS MORNING.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CORDELE TO DUBLIN TO LOUISVILLE.

DISCUSSION...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHWEST GEORGIA WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA
THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS MORNING... WHILE MAINLY
LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. THE RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO
EAST BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 AND 3
INCHES HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...
AND AN ADDITIONAL 1/2 TO 1 INCH IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF EAST
CENTRAL GEORGIA THROUGH LATE MORNING. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
COMBINED WITH WET SOIL CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL STREAM FLOWS
COULD RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING ALONG SOME CREEKS AND RIVERS.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA
THROUGH MID MORNING AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. NO STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

ALTHOUGH THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN WILL END THIS MORNING... MINOR
FLOODING ALONG SOME AREA CREEKS AND RIVERS MAY CONTINUE ON MONDAY.
OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Dec 29, 4:30 AM EST, 0 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
430 AM EST SUN DEC 29 2013

GAZ110-291000-
430 AM EST SUN DEC 29 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MPH WINDS IN TELFAIR COUNTY UNTIL
500 AM EST...

AT 422 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM MILAN TO 6 MILES SOUTH OF
TEMPERANCE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS LINE OF STORMS HAS EXHIBITED AREAS OF
LOCALIZED...WEAK ROTATION...BUT NOTHING STRONG ENOUGH TO INDICATE THE
PRESENCE OF A TORNADO AT 422 AM EST. STILL...THE ENVIRONMENT ALONG
THIS LINE SUGGESTS AN ENHANCED RISK OF A BRIEF...GENERALLY
WEAK...TORNADO FORMING. WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AS
THE LINE MOVES ACROSS TELFAIR COUNTY THROUGH 500 AM EST.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE TEMPERANCE...
MILAN...CHINA HILL...HELENA...WORKMORE...HELENA...MCRAE AND SCOTLAND.

EVERYONE IN THIS AREA IS URGED TO REMAIN INDOORS AND BE ALERT TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE AND WEAK TORNADOES THAT FORM AND
DISSIPATE RAPIDLY. ONCE THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVES EAST OF YOUR
AREA...THE RISK OF TORNADO FORMATION WILL DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY.

&&

LAT...LON 3180 8309 3180 8314 3185 8318 3194 8317
      3212 8294 3214 8296 3215 8294 3213 8294
      3211 8290 3208 8288 3205 8281 3201 8276
      3192 8279 3179 8307
TIME...MOT...LOC 0929Z 241DEG 29KT 3204 8306 3195 8308
          3184 8312

The office that day

Everything else NWS Atlanta, GA issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Dec 28, 9:44 PM ESTRiver Flood WarningFFCClarke, Greene, Oconee3 days
Dec 29, 5:02 AM ESTRiver Flood WarningFFCJones25 hr
Dec 29, 9:22 AM ESTRiver Flood WarningFFCBibb, Houston, Jones, Monroe, Twiggs56 hr
Dec 29, 9:22 AM ESTRiver Flood WarningFFCPutnam7 hr
Dec 29, 9:22 AM ESTRiver Flood WarningFFCBaldwin, Washington, Wilkinson23 hr
Dec 29, 4:27 PM ESTRiver Flood WarningFFCTaliaferro, Wilkes38 hr

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Georgia, 2013Every special weather statement in 2013

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.