Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
646 AM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
/ISSUED 344 AM EST SUN DEC 22 2013/
LINE OF STRONG STORMS IS PUSHING INTO NORTHWEST GEORGIA THIS MORNING
AND ALTHOUGH THERE HAVE NOT BEEN SEVERE STORMS WITH THIS LINE
RECENTLY ACROSS ALABAMA...THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS WITH THIS LINE. MESOANALYSIS IS SHOWING DECENT LOW
LEVEL SHEAR WITH THE SYSTEM OF AROUND 45KTS...HOWEVER MUCAPE IS ON
THE LOWER SIDE WITH LESS THAN 500 J/KG. INITIALLY THE MAIN THREAT
APPEARS TO BE ACROSS NORTHWEST GEORGIA WITH DAMAGING WINDS REMAINING
THE MAIN THREAT. AN ISOLATED EMBEDDED QLCS TORNADO THOUGH CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AND REMEMBER THESE CAN BE QUICK TO SPIN UP. BY THIS
AFTERNOON...GUIDANCE IS INDICATING AN INCREASE IN CAPE WITH A
DECREASE IN LOW LEVEL SHEAR. THE THREAT FOR THIS AFTERNOON REMAINS
GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS AND THE THREAT WILL EXTEND INTO THE REST OF
NORTH AND PARTS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA FOR THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT...THE
RAIN WITH THIS FRONT IS SLOW TO EXIT ONCE IT MOVES INTO THE MIDDLE
PART OF THE CWA. MODELS ARE IN GOOD CONSENSUS WITH THE AXIS OF
BETTER RAINFALL SETTING UP ACROSS CSG TO ATL TO AHN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. BASED ON THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF
RAIN AND FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE CONTINUED THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH...SEE THE HYDRO SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. FINALLY WILL START
TO SEE THE RAIN EXIT NORTH GEORGIA MONDAY AND MOST OF CENTRAL
GEORGIA BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR MOST OF NORTH GEORGIA...WILL NOT SEE MUCH OF A TEMPERATURE
CHANGE TODAY FOR THE HIGHS COMPARED TO THIS MORNING. THE MORE
NOTICEABLE CHANGE WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA WHERE SOME AREAS
WILL CLIMB INTO THE 80S. HAVE ALREADY BROKEN THE RECORD HIGH FOR
TODAY AT ATL. IT APPEARS THAT THE RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
ARE ALSO IN JEOPARDY AT ALL OF THE CLIMATE STATIONS. WILL FINALLY
START TO SEE A COOL DOWN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WITH SOME
AREAS EXPECTED TO SEE MORE THAN A 15 DEGREE TEMPERATURE CHANGE
BETWEEN THE HIGHS TODAY AND MONDAY.

11

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
/ISSUED 344 AM EST SUN DEC 22 2013/
MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM. THE CURRENT
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE CWA WILL EXIT MONDAY NIGHT AND BY 06Z TUE
THE PRECIP WILL BE OUT OF THE CWA. A LONG WAVE TROUGH TRIES TO SET
UP OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. AT THE MOST THERE COULD BE A FEW MORE
CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA...OTHERWISE IT WILL
REMAIN DRY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE
WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL REINFORCE THE COLDER AIR THROUGH
CHRISTMAS...THEN THERE WILL BE A SLOW MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES
INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS INTO A MORE ZONAL
PATTERN.

17

HYDROLOGY...
/ISSUED 344 AM EST SUN DEC 22 2013/
AS THE RAIN MOVES INTO THE STATE TODAY IT WILL MOVE THROUGH NW
GEORGIA BUT IS FORECAST TO SETTLE OVER AN AREA FROM COLUMBUS TO
ATLANTA TO ATHENS. GFS BUFR SOUNDING IS INDICATING AROUND 1.76 FOR
PW AT ATL THIS EVENING. LOOKING AT PW CLIMATOLOGY...THIS IS ABOVE
THE MAX OBSERVED VALUE FOR THE MONTH...THUS THERE IS PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. WIDESPREAD 2 TO 3 INCHES
OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA...MAINLY IN THE CSG TO ATL TO AHN AREA...AND THUS HAVE
CONTINUED THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH THAT IS IN EFFECT. HAVE EXTENDED
IT SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN GEORGIA TO CATCH SOME OF THE
HIGHER POTENTIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR 12-22

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      70 1918     28 1989     61 2011     11 1960
   KATL      70 1889     25 1989     59 1879     11 1989
                                                    1960
   KCSG      76 1990     31 1989     62 2011     16 1960
   KMCN      80 1970     35 1935     62 2011     15 1976

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
WINDS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT ATL WILL BE RIGHT AROUND 180 BUT
FOR THE MOST PART THE TREND WILL BE ON THE SSW SIDE BEFORE
BECOMING W BY THIS EVENING. LINE OF STRONGER STORMS WILL MOVE INTO
ATL AREA IN THE 13-14Z TIME FRAME. ONCE THE RAIN MOVES IN...WILL
REMAIN FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. TSRA WILL BE SCATTERED WITHIN
THE RAIN AREA AND REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CIGS
HAVENT BEEN QUITE AS LOW AS EXPECTED SO HAVE MAINLY KEPT THEM MVFR
THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOME IFR POSSIBLE.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          72  54  58  33 / 100 100  80  10
ATLANTA         72  52  56  30 / 100 100  80  10
BLAIRSVILLE     66  49  52  24 / 100  80  70  10
CARTERSVILLE    72  50  55  27 / 100  80  70  10
COLUMBUS        76  56  60  34 / 100 100  80  10
GAINESVILLE     69  53  57  31 / 100 100  80  10
MACON           76  59  64  33 /  70 100 100  10
ROME            70  48  54  26 / 100  60  50  10
PEACHTREE CITY  73  52  58  30 / 100 100  80  10
VIDALIA         81  66  67  40 /  20  60  90  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BUTTS...CARROLL...CATOOSA...
CHATTAHOOCHEE...CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...
COWETA...CRAWFORD...DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...DOUGLAS...FANNIN...
FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...GORDON...GREENE...
GWINNETT...HALL...HARALSON...HARRIS...HEARD...HENRY...JACKSON...
JASPER...LAMAR...LUMPKIN...MADISON...MARION...MERIWETHER...
MONROE...MORGAN...MURRAY...MUSCOGEE...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...
OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PICKENS...PIKE...POLK...
PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...STEWART...TALBOT...
TAYLOR...TOWNS...TROUP...UNION...UPSON...WALKER...WALTON...
WHITE...WHITFIELD.

&&

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...11

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
322 AM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-230830-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
322 AM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...
ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS.
HEAVY RAIN THAT COULD PRODUCE FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND
CREEKS.

DISCUSSION...
A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MARGINALLY UNSTABLE TODAY HOWEVER
SHEAR WILL BE STRONG. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED...A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE TODAY. THE THREAT
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHES TONIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE
STABILIZES.

IN ADDITION...DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM...MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS A LARGE PART OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA TODAY AND TONIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE LIKELY
FROM WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA INTO NORTHEAST GEORGIA WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH AND
PARTS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA FOR INCREASED POTENTIAL OF FLOODING ON
RIVERS...CREEKS AND STREAMS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE THREAT OF FLOODING OF RIVERS...CREEKS AND STREAMS WILL
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE STORM SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION. WHILE
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON MONDAY WILL BE LIGHT...RUNOFF FROM
THE HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY COULD PRODUCE RIVER
FLOODING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AND THIS WILL BRING DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST INFORMATION TODAY FOR POSSIBLE
ACTIVATION ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
806 AM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

GAZ020-021-030>032-041>043-052-221400-
806 AM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HEAVY RAIN IN POLK...PAULDING...
BARTOW...CARROLL...CHEROKEE...COBB...DOUGLAS...HARALSON AND HEARD
COUNTIES UNTIL 900 AM EST...

AT 756 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN FROM CANTON THROUGH DALLAS
TO CARROLLTON. THE STORMS WERE MOVING NORTHEAST 40 MPH. THE AREA
OF RAIN WAS MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
POLK...PAULDING...BARTOW...CARROLL...CHEROKEE...COBB...DOUGLAS...
HARALSON AND HEARD COUNTIES...INCLUDING AREAS AROUND BILL
ARP...WINSTON...HANNAH...FAIRPLAY...SEATON LAKE...TREASURE
LAKE...ABILENE...CLEM...BOWDON JUNCTION...JOHN TANNER STATE
PARK...CARROLLTON...MOUNT ZION...VILLA RICA...TEMPLE AND BREMEN.

DRIVERS SHOULD USE CAUTION AS INTENSE RAINFALL WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITIES. TEMPORARY STREET FLOODING AND PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS IS ALSO LIKELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3410 8517 3408 8516 3410 8505 3418 8504
      3441 8466 3441 8459 3438 8458 3438 8426
      3363 8474 3344 8492 3346 8498 3343 8501
      3336 8499 3313 8524 3396 8540
TIME...MOT...LOC 1301Z 230DEG 35KT 3374 8504

16