Alert archive / Georgia / Special Weather Statements in 2013

Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

September 2, 2013Washington County, Georgia

NWS Atlanta, GA issued this special weather statement at Sep 2, 2013, 2:44 PM EDT for Washington County, Georgia. It was in force for 31 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Sep 2, 2013, 2:44 PM EDT (18:44 UTC)
Expired: Sep 2, 2013, 3:15 PM EDT
In force: 31 min
Issued by: NWS Atlanta, GA

County Washington County, GA

The radar

The Robins AFB radar (KJGX), 43 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:44 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Peachtre/Fal Fld, GA (KFFC), launched 12:00Z, 6.7 hours before the alert went out and 153 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1494 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -38 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 523 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 8 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -106 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: -101 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Atlanta, GA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Sep 2, 1:55 PM EDT, 49 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Sep 2, 1:55 PM EDT, 49 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
155 PM EDT MON SEP 2 2013

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE OF THE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS...EARLY
MORNING THUNDERSTORMS COMPLEX DISSIPATING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA BUT
SHOULD SEE RE-DEVELOPMENT LATER ACROSS THE NORTH. GOOD MORNING
SUNSHINE OVER THE SOUTH IS ALLOWING FOR GOOD DE-STABILIZATION THERE
AND WE SHOULD SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA AS
WELL. OVERALL NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
THEMES.

20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 737 AM EDT MON SEP 2 2013/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM EDT MON SEP 2 2013/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM BEGINS WITH UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY...WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO THAT IS JUST ABOUT CLOSED OFF. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
WILL BE OCCLUDING TODAY AS THE FRONT /CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE OZARKS AND SOUTHERN PLAINS/ SHIFTS EAST. THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE FRONT WILL LOSE SOME OF ITS OOMPH TODAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO OCCLUDE...BUT WILL STILL BE STRONG ENOUGH
TO PUSH INTO THE SOUTHEAST BY TUESDAY MORNING WITH DRIER AIR
FILTERING IN BEHIND IT. SYNOPTIC MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN
THE MASS FIELDS THOUGH OF COURSE THERE ARE MINOR DIFFERENCES IN
DETAILS. AS A NOTE...HIRES MODELS NOT HANDLING CURRENT CONVECTION
VERY WELL /ALL WRF MEMBERS HAD CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL
GEORGIA AT AFD TIME WHERE THERE IS NONE/.

AMPLE SURFACE MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY AND ONCE AGAIN
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO NEAR AND POSSIBLY JUST ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS...LEADING TO CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG
THIS AFTERNOON. DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTERMITTENT...SMALL
AMPLITUDE WAVES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUE TO TRIGGER
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH ONE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX NEAR THE TENNESSEE/MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA CORNER AT AFD TIME.
SO BETWEEN LEFTOVER SURFACE BOUNDARIES FROM YESTERDAY...INCREASING
INSTABILITY...AND THE APPROACHING FRONT...HAVE KEPT TREND OF LIKELY
POPS NORTH TODAY AND HIGH CHANCE ELSEWHERE. 00Z KFFC SOUNDING HAD PW
VALUE OF 1.95...BETWEEN 75TH AND 99TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...AND BUFR SOUNDINGS KEEP PLENTIFUL MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN
THROUGH MONDAY /NAM HAS PW VALUES INCREASING TO OVER 2 INCHES MONDAY
WHEREAS GFS KEEPS PW AROUND 1.75/. AS WITH THE PAST FEW DAYS...
LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS TODAY BUT AN
ISOLATED DOWNBURST CANNOT BE RULED OUT. LUCKILY THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN TO KEEP STORMS MOVING AND
THUS THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT TO A MINIMUM BUT SOME AREAS COULD
STILL SEE A GOOD DRENCHING.

FOR TUESDAY...SYNOPTIC MODELS INCREASE CAPES EVEN MORE THAN TODAY...
BUT THIS WILL BE COMPETING WITH THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH /MORE
SPECIFICALLY THE LACK THEREOF/ OF THE COLD FRONT. THE INCREASING
INSTABILITY AND PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT POINT TO AN INCREASED
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SEVERE CONVECTION...BUT EVEN WITH THE FRONT
NEARBY THERE IS NO SHEAR TO SPEAK OF. DRY AIR INTRUSION ALOFT /VERY
DRY ABOVE 500MB/ WILL BE NOSING IN AS EARLY AS 15Z TUESDAY ACROSS
THE METRO AREA AND POINTS NORTH AND BY 21Z ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA.
SO WITH ALL THAT...CONFIDENCE NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH AT THIS POINT
WITH THE TUESDAY FORECAST. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
NORTH...DIMINISHING FROM THERE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE METRO AREA AND POINTS SOUTH.

TOOK THE TYPICAL BIAS-ADJUSTED BLEND FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM BUT AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE WEEKEND...TEMPS WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND RAIN.

TDP

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE STATE EARLIER DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY AND DRIER AIR HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. MODELS
AGREE THAT THE BOUNDARY STALLS SOMEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE KEPT THE NORTH DRY WITH ONLY LOW
POPS FOR CENTRAL. MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN ON FRIDAY WITH LOW
LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND GENERAL EAST COAST TROUGHING ALOFT. HAVE
INCLUDED POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY BUT
SHOWING A MAINLY DIURNAL TREND. MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPERATURES BUT DAYTIME HIGHS SEEM TO BE NEAR NORMAL. A BIT
COOLER AT NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK MAINLY NORTH.

41

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
PATCH OF IFR CEILINGS AROUND METRO ATLANTA IS FINALLY STARTING TO
BREAK UP. I EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION AS
THIS LAST REMNANT OF THIS MORNING/S AREA OF HEAVY RAIN DISSIPATES.
WE MAY SEE SOME VERY BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH 19/20Z AS THE
CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPS. CHANCES FOR THUNDER LOOK SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...BUT WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST ISOLATED/SCATTERED
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 00Z. RIGHT NOW MODELS ARE NOT INDICATING ANY
WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CEILINGS TOMORROW MORNING...BUT AREAS WHERE
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION FALLS INTO THIS EVENING MAY SEE SOME
ISSUES 08-15Z. WINDS STAY SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON WINDS...MEDIUM OTHER ELEMENTS.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          90  70  90  70 /  60  40  30  10
ATLANTA         88  72  88  72 /  70  40  30  10
BLAIRSVILLE     83  66  84  63 /  60  50  20  10
CARTERSVILLE    88  70  89  66 /  90  50  20  10
COLUMBUS        91  73  91  75 /  50  40  40  20
GAINESVILLE     87  70  88  68 /  70  50  30  10
MACON           90  71  91  71 /  50  40  40  20
ROME            89  69  89  67 /  70  50  20  10
PEACHTREE CITY  88  70  88  70 /  60  40  30  10
VIDALIA         91  73  91  73 /  50  30  40  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...20

Hazardous weather outlook, Sep 2, 11:55 AM EDT, 2 hours 49 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1155 AM EDT MON SEP 2 2013

GAZ039-051-060>062-069-071>076-078>086-089>098-102>113-030400-
BALDWIN-BIBB-BLECKLEY-CHATTAHOOCHEE-CRAWFORD-CRISP-DODGE-DOOLY-
EMANUEL-GLASCOCK-HANCOCK-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-
LAURENS-MACON-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MUSCOGEE-PEACH-PULASKI-
PUTNAM-SCHLEY-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-
TOOMBS-TREUTLEN-TWIGGS-UPSON-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-
WILCOX-WILKES-WILKINSON-
1155 AM EDT MON SEP 2 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA...EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
REMNANTS OF OVERNIGHT STORMS ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA WILL PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR NEW DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...PARTICULARLY IN THOSE AREAS WHICH SEE SUNSHINE THIS
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...HOWEVER...OVERALL CHANCES WILL BE DECREASING EACH
DAY THROUGH FRIDAY. BY THE WEEKEND...TYPICAL AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE AS ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE INCREASES
ACROSS THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>038-041>050-052>059-066>068-
070-030400-
BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-
CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DOUGLAS-FANNIN-
FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GORDON-GREENE-GWINNETT-HALL-HARALSON-
HEARD-HENRY-JACKSON-JASPER-LAMAR-LUMPKIN-MADISON-MERIWETHER-
MORGAN-MURRAY-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-ROCKDALE-SOUTH FULTON-SPALDING-TOWNS-TROUP-
UNION-WALKER-WALTON-WHITE-WHITFIELD-
1155 AM EDT MON SEP 2 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA...EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA...NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...NORTHEAST GEORGIA...NORTHWEST GEORGIA AND WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

AN OVERNIGHT COMPLEX OF STORMS HAS LEFT A CLOUD SHIELD ACROSS MUCH
OF NORTHERN GEORGIA. AS A RESULT...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE A MUCH
MORE DIFFICULT TIME DESTABILIZING DURING AFTERNOON HEATING.
THEREFORE...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ON THE LOW
SIDE. HOWEVER...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PUSHING INTO NORTH
GEORGIA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND SOME MODELS ARE REDEVELOPING
SOME STORMS ACROSS EXTREME NORTH GEORGIA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOP TODAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE ON THE DECREASE OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH TUESDAY BEING THE BEST CHANCE AS DRIER AIR
FILTERS IN BEHIND THE APPROACHING FRONT. BY THE WEEKEND...TYPICAL
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE AS ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION AND THE REMNANT FRONT ALONG
THE GULF COAST WASHES OUT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Sep 2, 2:11 PM EDT, 33 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
211 PM EDT MON SEP 2 2013

GAZ097-021845-
211 PM EDT MON SEP 2 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 35 MPH WINDS
IN LAURENS COUNTY UNTIL 245 PM EDT...

AT 206 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER MONTROSE...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
LAURENS COUNTY THROUGH 245 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS
STORM INCLUDE MONTROSE...DUDLEY...HARLOW...MINTER...BREWTON...EAST
DUBLIN AND DUBLIN. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3235 8274 3247 8317 3253 8321 3260 8318
      3265 8310 3259 8267
TIME...MOT...LOC 1811Z 284DEG 17KT 3255 8309

Special weather statement, Sep 2, 2:44 PM EDT, 0 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
244 PM EDT MON SEP 2 2013

GAZ074-084-085-021915-
244 PM EDT MON SEP 2 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS
IN WASHINGTON...JOHNSON AND WILKINSON COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM EDT...

AT 240 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER TOOMSBORO...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
WASHINGTON...JOHNSON AND WILKINSON COUNTIES THROUGH 315 PM EDT. SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE TOOMSBORO...HEBRON...
OCONEE AND TENNILLE. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3271 8276 3281 8316 3297 8310 3295 8307
      3297 8307 3299 8305 3296 8270
TIME...MOT...LOC 1844Z 282DEG 17KT 3288 8302

The office that day

Everything else NWS Atlanta, GA issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Sep 2, 3:56 AM EDT	Special Weather Statement	FFC	Haralson	49 min
Sep 2, 4:47 AM EDT	Special Weather Statement	FFC	Haralson	28 min
Sep 2, 5:19 AM EDT	Special Weather Statement	FFC	Haralson	26 min
Sep 2, 5:50 AM EDT	Special Weather Statement	FFC	Douglas, Haralson	25 min
Sep 2, 6:03 AM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	FFC	Haralson	6 hr
Sep 2, 6:21 AM EDT	Special Weather Statement	FFC	Douglas	24 min
Sep 2, 7:31 AM EDT	Special Weather Statement	FFC	Coweta	29 min
Sep 2, 2:11 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	FFC	Laurens	34 min
Sep 2, 3:07 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	FFC	Johnson	38 min
Sep 2, 3:11 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FFC	Johnson, Washington	49 min
Sep 2, 3:41 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FFC	Emanuel, Jefferson, Johnson	49 min
Sep 2, 4:28 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	FFC	Montgomery, Treutlen	32 min
Sep 2, 4:30 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	FFC	Crisp	30 min
Sep 2, 5:02 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	FFC	Crisp, Wilcox	28 min
Sep 2, 5:32 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	FFC	Telfair, Wilcox	43 min
Sep 2, 6:12 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	FFC	Telfair	48 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Georgia, 2013 Every special weather statement in 2013

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.