Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
339 PM EDT SUN SEP 1 2013

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH TOMORROW. SEVERAL
RIPPLES NOTED IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TODAY ENHANCING CONVECTION.
SHORT TERM HIRES MODELS NOT HANDLING CURRENT CONVECTION WELL. GOOD
MOISTURE...AND INSTABILITY NOTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...CAPES
APPROACHING 2000...AS AN OUT FLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS MORNINGS
CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH GA...AIDED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM CARROLLTON TO ATLANTA TO ATHENS.
THIS LINE WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING. HRRR
HINTING AT ANOTHER LINE DEVELOPING OVER EASTER AL JUST BEFORE
SUNSET IMPACTING PORTIONS OF WEST AND CENTRAL GA THROUGH LATE
EVENING...WITH THE AREA ALREADY WORKED OVER AM NOT BITING ON THIS
SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW CONVECTION SHIFTING
TO THE SOUTH SIDE OF ATL TO AHN AFTER 4-5PM AND IMPACTING CSG-MCN
BETWEEN 6-9 PM.

MODELS SHOWING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LINGERING OVERNIGHT...AND
ISOLATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE. ECMWF/GFS/NAM ALL
SHOWING MCS POSSIBLE BY 12Z MONDAY NOW AND HAVE CONTINUED CHANCE
POPS ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FEATURE. WEAK SURFACE
FRONT CONTINUES TO APPROACH NORTH GEORGIA TOMORROW AND WITH GOOD
MOISTURE AND INCREASING INSTABILITY ONCE AGAIN EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY.

CONTINUED TO USE A BIAS CORRECTED BLEND OF GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS...ALTHOUGH MAX
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS THAT ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP IN RAIN SOAKED AREAS TONIGHT.

ATWELL

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO THE EXTENDED. DID RAISE TEMPERATURES FOR
SATURDAY/SUNDAY A DEGREE OR SO BUT STILL LOOKING LIKE THE COOLEST
DAYS OF EXTENDED PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM EDT SUN SEP 1 2013/
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED BEGINS WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO...
TROUGHING DOWN THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S...WITH THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE
ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT BUT AS THE FRONT PUSHES TOWARD THE
COAST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...DRIER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND IT
AND PUSHES PRECIP CHANCES INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH GEORGIA. DRIEST
DAY LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST OFF THE
COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES MOST OF THE STATE. HOWEVER...ON
THURSDAY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND LOOKS
TO PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT THAT WHEN COMBINED WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFTING
IS ENOUGH TO WARRANT SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS. ECMWF IS A LITTLE STRONGER WITH THIS SHORTWAVE
INITIALLY BUT BOTH MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THIS
FEATURE ON FRIDAY. AS WE PUSH INTO THE WEEKEND...THE GFS IS
DEFINITELY THE WETTER OF THE TWO MODELS SO COMPROMISED ON THIS
UNCERTAINTY BY PAINTING GENERALLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
AREA ON SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPS...TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPS...AND EVEN WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPS WILL ONLY DROP A
COUPLE OF DEGREES BUT SHOULD BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. THE MORE
NOTICEABLE CHANGE WILL BE IN OVERNIGHT LOWS...LIKELY DROPPING AT
LEAST 5 DEGREES BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY
IS A BIT FAR OUT THERE BUT WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE STRONG
SHORTWAVE /INCREASED CLOUDINESS/...RIGHT NOW THAT LOOKS TO BE THE
COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD.

TDP

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 203 PM EDT SUN SEP 1 2013/
AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
LINE OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE ATL TO AHN TAF SITES WILL
SLOWLY SINK TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THIS EVENING. ANTICIPATE STORMS
WILL BE SOUTH OF ATL AFTER 20Z AND IMPACT CSG/MCN 20-24Z. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION WITH MVFR AND WIND GUSTS
TO NEAR 30KTS EXPECTED. LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP TOWARD MORNING
AIDED BY THE SATURATED GROUND WITH IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME. WEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS...VISIBILITY.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS OVERNIGHT...CONVECTIVE TIMING.

ATWELL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          70  90  72  90 /  40  30  30  30
ATLANTA         73  90  74  90 /  40  40  30  30
BLAIRSVILLE     66  84  68  84 /  30  50  30  20
CARTERSVILLE    71  89  71  90 /  40  40  40  20
COLUMBUS        75  93  74  90 /  50  40  30  30
GAINESVILLE     69  88  73  89 /  40  40  30  20
MACON           71  91  72  91 /  50  40  40  30
ROME            70  90  72  90 /  40  50  40  20
PEACHTREE CITY  69  90  71  89 /  40  40  30  30
VIDALIA         74  93  74  90 /  40  30  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...ATWELL
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...ATWELL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1155 AM EDT SUN SEP 1 2013

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-021600-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
1155 AM EDT SUN SEP 1 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE
EXPECTED IN NORTH GEORGIA. THE COMBINATION OF INCOMING REMNANTS OF
A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MOVING SOUTH OUT OF TENNESSEE AND A
WEAK DISTURBANCE PUSHING INTO NORTH GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON...IN
CONCERT WITH ENHANCED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES. TRAINING CELLS MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
THREATS AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALTHOUGH SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS WILL
EXIST. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES. BY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE PUSHES TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
513 PM EDT SUN SEP 1 2013

GAZ067>069-078-079-012200-
513 PM EDT SUN SEP 1 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS
IN TALBOT...PIKE...MERIWETHER...UPSON AND HARRIS COUNTIES UNTIL 600
PM EDT...

AT 512 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM DURAND TO THE ROCK...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15
MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS TALBOT...PIKE...MERIWETHER...UPSON AND HARRIS COUNTIES THROUGH
600 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE
ATWATER...LIFSEY SPRINGS...MEANSVILLE...MOLENA...RALEIGH...HARRIS
CITY...STOVALL...IMLAC...WOODBURY...DURAND...THE ROCK...CREST...PINE
MOUNTAIN-CALLAWAY GARDENS...HANNAHS MILL AND WARM SPRINGS. HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3287 8486 3299 8486 3308 8424 3304 8425
      3303 8427 3299 8427 3299 8412 3281 8412
      3280 8415 3278 8416 3272 8482 3287 8491
TIME...MOT...LOC 2114Z 334DEG 12KT 3291 8482 3293 8464
          3297 8429

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