Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
342 PM EDT FRI AUG 23 2013

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MUCH QUIETER PATTERN IN STORE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...FAR MORE
TYPICAL OF LATE FALL THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING...THAT SAID...
TEMPS WILL STILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE AS A RESULT OF A BUILDING
DAMMING EVENT /LOOKS LIKE DRY ONSET CLASSICAL CAD BUT PRETTY
TRANSIENT/. SO FOR THE OVERALL PATTERN...STRONG TROUGHING ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
UNDER THE UPSTREAM CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION
EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE STATE THIS
EVENING...WORKING ITS WAY SOUTH TOWARD THE COAST TONIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL TRANSLATE
EAST AND BEGIN RIDGING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD...AGAIN IN WHAT
LOOKS LIKE A DRY ONSET CLASSICAL CAD SCENARIO. WITH NO PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CAD AT ONSET...SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS WILL BE
MINIMIZED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF DRIER AIR MOVING AND AND THUS
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS.

CONVECTION ALREADY FIRING ACROSS THE AREA AT AFD TIME WILL CONTINUE
TO SAG SOUTH THIS EVENING...MINIMIZING THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING
WITH ANY INDIVIDUAL STORM. CONVECTION MAY LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT
ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES BUT THIS MAY BE A LITTLE HEAVY-HANDED. HAVE
BROUGHT CHANCE POPS BACK UP INTO THE METRO AREA ON SATURDAY BUT THIS
WILL HEAVILY DEPEND ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT PUSHES TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW AS WELL AS WHERE THE WEDGE FRONT SETS UP...AND HOW MUCH DRY
AIR PUSHES IN BEHIND IT. CERTAINLY BY SATURDAY NIGHT ENOUGH DRY AIR
HAS PUSHED IN TO WARRANT REMOVING POPS. KEPT TREND OF SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE POPS ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES ON SUNDAY.

TOOK A BIAS-ADJUSTED BLEND FOR TEMPS RESULTING IN GENERALLY MID 80S
TO NEAR 90 ON SATURDAY. GENERALLY ALL MOS GUIDANCE IS A COUPLE OF
DEGREES COOLER FOR SUNDAY AS A RESULT OF THE CAD BUT AM HESITANT TO
DROP TEMPS YET...AM NOT SURE HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER THERE WILL BE TO
LIMIT INSOLATION AND WE ARE STILL TALKING AUGUST SO SUN ANGLE STILL
HIGHER THAN EQUINOX TO CONTEND WITH. MAY SEE BIGGER IMPACTS INTO THE
BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED AS THE SURFACE HIGH STRENGTHENS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST...EVEN WITH THE LOSS OF THE PARENT HIGH. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SHOULD BE INCREASINGLY PLEASANT WITH THE DRY AIR FILTERING IN.

TDP

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LONG TERM FORECAST STILL LOOKS GOOD. HAVE MADE ONLY ONE TWEAK AND
THAT WAS TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOOKS
LIKE ANOTHER BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD AND APPROACH
THE NORTHEAST ZONES OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
UNTIL THEN...PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS DROPPING SIGNIFICANTLY
THROUGH THE WEEK AND THIS WILL SUPPORT MINIMAL POPS. MOISTURE
RETURNING BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS
INCLUDED BELOW.

41

&&

.PREVIOUS...
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
/ISSUED 348 AM EDT FRI AUG 23 2013/
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE S OF THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID U.S. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES SHOULD BE HIGHLY DIURNAL SATURDAY NIGHT AND DIMINISH WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK TO BE LIMITED
TO MAINLY CENTRAL GA ON SUNDAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE WITH THE
INFLUENCE OF DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE HAVING THE MOST AFFECT ON N
GA.

PRECIP CHANCES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK TO BE AS LOW AS WE HAVE
SEEN IN A LONG TIME WITH A GENERALLY DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE AREA AND
THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP
AMOUNTS AND CHANCES THAN THE EUROPEAN. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE NE
MOUNTAINS AND FAR S AS AREAS WHERE SMALL CHANCES COULD BE NEEDED.

GFS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH MOISTURE RETURN ON WEDNESDAY THAN THE
EUROPEAN FROM THE NNW FLOW ALOFT. GUIDANCE FROM HPC FAVORING LOW
POPS FOR N AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GA. A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND AGAIN THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
THE MOISTURE THAN THE EUROPEAN IN THE NNW FLOW ALOFT. HPC GUIDANCE
FAVORING LOW POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY.
BOTH MODELS INDICATING INCREASED MOISTURE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RUNNING NEAR TO AROUND 6 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
DURING THIS PERIOD.

BDL

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR EVERYWHERE THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT FORMER PROB30 TIMING AND
JUST CHANGED TO TEMPO AT ATL...WILL MONITOR FOR OTHER SITES.
EXPECT MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP AGAIN IN THE MORNING WITH WIND SHIFT TO
NE AFTER 06Z. MAY SEE LOWER CONDITIONS AGAIN AT MCN LIKE THIS
MORNING. CLEARING AFTER 14Z. ADDED ANOTHER PROB30 FOR ATL SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
MEDIUM ON VSBY SATURDAY MORNING.
HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

TDP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          69  85  67  84 /  30  30  20  10
ATLANTA         72  86  69  85 /  20  30  20  10
BLAIRSVILLE     64  80  64  81 /  20  30  10  10
CARTERSVILLE    68  87  68  87 /  20  20  20  10
COLUMBUS        73  89  71  88 /  30  30  20  30
GAINESVILLE     71  83  68  84 /  20  30  20  10
MACON           70  89  70  87 /  30  30  20  10
ROME            68  88  68  87 /  20  20  20  10
PEACHTREE CITY  68  86  67  86 /  20  30  20  10
VIDALIA         72  89  71  87 /  30  40  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...TDP
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...TDP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
420 PM EDT FRI AUG 23 2013

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-251000-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
420 PM EDT FRI AUG 23 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...
GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

DISCUSSION...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE A
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...
GUSTY WINDS AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING.

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS
ON WEDNESDAY AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
631 PM EDT FRI AUG 23 2013

GAZ078-089-232300-
631 PM EDT FRI AUG 23 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 45 MPH WINDS IN MUSCOGEE AND
HARRIS COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM EDT...

AT 627 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER FORTSON...MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 45 MPH ARE LIKELY AS THIS STORM MOVES ACROSS MUSCOGEE
AND HARRIS COUNTIES THROUGH 700 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF
THE STORM INCLUDE GOAT ROCK LAKE...MULBERRY GROVE...FORTSON...
CATAULA...FLAT ROCK...LAUREL HILLS...GREEN ISLAND HILLS...VISTA
TERRACE...COLUMBUS METROPOLITAN AIRPORT...HIGHLAND PARK...AVONDALE...
SAINT MARYS HILLS...BENNING PARK...BENNING HILLS AND CARTER ACRES.

&&

LAT...LON 3270 8508 3269 8486 3241 8485 3241 8488
      3240 8489 3240 8499 3243 8497 3246 8501
      3251 8501 3261 8509
TIME...MOT...LOC 2231Z 002DEG 11KT 3261 8497

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
700 PM EDT FRI AUG 23 2013

GAZ079-080-091-092-232330-
700 PM EDT FRI AUG 23 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 45 MPH WINDS
IN TALBOT...SCHLEY...MARION AND TAYLOR COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM EDT...

AT 655 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER BALDWINVILLE...MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 45 MPH ARE LIKELY AS THIS STORM MOVES ACROSS TALBOT...
SCHLEY...MARION AND TAYLOR COUNTIES THROUGH 730 PM EDT. SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM INCLUDE WESLEY CHURCH...
BALDWINVILLE...PO BIDDY CROSSROADS...PRATTSBURG...JUNCTION CITY...
HOWARD...FIVE POINTS...RUPERT...MAUK AND CHARING.

&&

LAT...LON 3240 8427 3239 8454 3271 8453 3272 8432
TIME...MOT...LOC 2300Z 357DEG 15KT 3263 8442

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
701 PM EDT FRI AUG 23 2013

GAZ074-085-232330-
701 PM EDT FRI AUG 23 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HEAVY RAIN IN WASHINGTON AND
JOHNSON COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM EDT...

AT 700 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER PRINGLE...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH.

RUNOFF FROM THESE STORMS WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS
AND STREAMS...URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES ACROSS
WASHINGTON AND JOHNSON COUNTIES...INCLUDING AREAS AROUND
RIDDLEVILLE...DAVISBORO...HARRISON...PRINGLE...DONOVAN...NEW HOME...
SPANN...MEEKS...KITE AND WRIGHTSVILLE. ADDITIONALLY...COUNTRY ROADS
AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS ARE SUBJECT TO
MINOR FLOODING.

THE HIGH RAIN TOTALS SEEN THUS FAR THIS SEASON HAS RESULTED IN
PERSISTENT WET SOILS FOR AREA TREES. THIS WILL ALLOW THESE TREES TO
FALL DUE TO WINDS MUCH LOWER THAN IN A TYPICAL SEASON...AS LOW AS 30
MPH IN SOME CASES.

&&

LAT...LON 3272 8245 3269 8250 3265 8247 3264 8251
      3258 8259 3255 8259 3256 8267 3261 8267
      3265 8277 3308 8279 3304 8260 3302 8255
      3295 8254 3292 8251 3282 8252 3276 8244
TIME...MOT...LOC 2301Z 339DEG 3KT 3284 8257

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
712 PM EDT FRI AUG 23 2013

GAZ074-085-232345-
712 PM EDT FRI AUG 23 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 45 MPH WINDS IN WASHINGTON AND
JOHNSON COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM EDT...

AT 709 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER PRINGLE...MOVING SOUTH AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 45 MPH ARE LIKELY AS THESE STORMS MOVE ACROSS
WASHINGTON AND JOHNSON COUNTIES THROUGH 745 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN
THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE TENNILLE...RIDDLEVILLE...HARRISON...
PRINGLE...NEW HOME...DONOVAN AND WRIGHTSVILLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3265 8256 3273 8285 3298 8283 3297 8257
TIME...MOT...LOC 2313Z 005DEG 18KT 3283 8266

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
734 PM EDT FRI AUG 23 2013

GAZ074-083>085-096-097-240000-
734 PM EDT FRI AUG 23 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 45 MPH WINDS IN WASHINGTON...
TWIGGS...LAURENS...JOHNSON...WILKINSON AND BLECKLEY COUNTIES UNTIL
800 PM EDT...

AT 728 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG GUST FRONT THAT STRETCHED FROM OCONEE TO TUCKERS
CROSSROAD...MOVING WEST AT 20 MPH. THIS GUST FRONT WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH ALONG ITS LEADING
EDGE.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM INCLUDE TUCKERS
CROSSROAD...LOVETT...BREWTON...OCONEE...TOOMSBORO...CHAPPELLS
MILL...NICKLESVILLE...MONTROSE...DUDLEY...MCINTYRE...ALLENTOWN AND
IRWINTON.

&&

LAT...LON 3260 8271 3246 8316 3283 8337 3298 8289
      3277 8287
TIME...MOT...LOC 2333Z 079DEG 19KT 3287 8299 3275 8299
          3265 8289