Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
808 PM EDT TUE AUG 20 2013

.UPDATE...
CONVECTION BEGINNING TO FIRE MORE INTENSELY ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. A RELATIVELY UNSTABLE...NON WORKED OVER
ATMOSPHERE EXISTS IN THIS AREA. WITH THE APPROACHING SEA BREEZE
FROM THE EAST AND WEAK RIPPLE IN THE FLOW FROM THE
GULF...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INITIATED IN THIS AREA. AT THIS
TIME...HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH
THESE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. AS SUCH...I HAVE OPTED TO CARRY
LIKELY POPS THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. 12Z HIRES NMM SEEMS TO HAVE PEGGED THIS CONVECTION WELL. NO
OTHER UPDATES TO THE AFD ARE LIKELY TONIGHT AS THUNDERSTORMS ARE
INCREASING IN COVERAGE...SLIGHT TWEAKS TO POPS WILL BE MADE
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT DUE TO THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM EDT TUE AUG 20 2013/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
PERSISTENT PATTERN FOR THE SHORT TERM. THE CWA REMAINS IN A TROPICAL
FLOW OF MOISTURE. THE WEDGE SEEMS TO BE JUST SOUTH OF THE ATLANTA TO
ATHENS AREAS...BUT EXACT BOUNDARY REMAINS VAGUE. MUCH OF THE CWA HAS
EASTERLY WINDS AND NOT LOOKING FOR THE BOUNDARY TO MOVE MUCH DURING
THE SHORT TERM. HOWEVER THE AIR MASS HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE MENTION OF THUNDER FOR ALL
ZONES. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING
SINCE PICKING ONE AREA HAS BEEN DIFFICULT. UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF AND
MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...LEAVING THE CWA IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH WEAK
IMPULSES. HAVE INCLUDED LIKELY POPS AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
USED PERSISTENCE FOR TEMPERATURES...TWEAKED THE FORECAST LOWS UP A
DEGREE OR TWO. HIGHS WEDNESDAY VARIABLE DUE TO CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING
SHOWERS.

41

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERALL...MODELS STILL CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING DEEP PLUME OF
MOISTURE ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE WEEK. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR
CHANGES TO POPS AND WX GRIDS...AS WELL AS A FEW TWEAKS TO
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
AND SOLUTIONS. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON
TRACK...SO HAVE MADE FEW OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME. THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

31

/ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT TUE AUG 20 2013/
THE WET PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE EXTENDED...BUT IT DOES LOOK
LIKE THERE IS AN END IN SIGHT. THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
STILL OVER CENTRAL GA AND SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD
THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE FINALLY WASHING OUT. THIS FRONT WILL WEAKEN
THROUGH THE WEEK BUT IT WILL STILL ACT AS A GUIDE FOR GULF
MOISTURE TO MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THU/FRI.
WITH THE WEDGE WEAKENING ITS HOLD ON N GA...A MORE DIURNAL DRIVEN
CONVECTIVE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO TAKE OVER WED/THU AND CONTINUE
THROUGH DAY 7. THIS WILL BRING A MUCH WELCOMED BREAK IN THE
FLOODING CONCERNS. THE HEAVIEST RAIN RAIN STILL APPEARS TO BE IN
THE SHORT TERM WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINING OVER THE
REGION THROUGH WED/THU. PRECIPITABLE WATERS IN THE 1.5 TO 2.0
INCH RANGE ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THU WITH PWS FINALLY GETTING
BELOW 1.5 INCHES BY 00Z FRI AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES NORTH AND
EAST OF THE STATE. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE BOTH BEGINNING TO SHOW A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING SOUTH OUT OF THE GREAT LAKE
STATES FRI/SAT. THE GFS SHOWS A VERY DRY AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WITH THIS RIDGE BY SUNDAY. THE ECMWF SHOWS A
VERY SIMILAR PATTERN BUT STILL KEEPS IN A BIT MORE MOISTURE THAN
THE GFS. EITHER WAY...IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE A MUCH DRIER START
TO NEXT WEEK THAN WE HAVE SEE IN A WHILE.

01

.AVIATION... 00Z UPDATE...
CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT FOR CSG AND POSSIBLY MCN
TONIGHT AS A COMPLEX MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH. EXPECT THE CLUSTER
TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NORTH. OVERNIGHT STRATUS BUILDS BACK IN AND
WE WILL SEE IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW AM.
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON THUNDER SEEM TO MIGRATE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
TOMORROW DURING THE DAY. SOME GUIDANCE WANTS TO DROP THE CEILINGS
BELOW 400 FEET...DID NOT BITE ON THIS AS MOST OF THE SITES HAVE
NOT SEEN RAIN TODAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TS TIMING TOMORROW AND CEILING
HEIGHTS....HIGH ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

ARG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          69  82  70  87 /  60  60  60  30
ATLANTA         70  82  71  86 /  60  60  60  30
BLAIRSVILLE     67  78  65  84 /  60  60  60  40
CARTERSVILLE    69  83  69  87 /  60  60  60  30
COLUMBUS        72  87  73  90 /  60  60  60  30
GAINESVILLE     69  79  70  85 /  60  60  60  30
MACON           71  86  72  90 /  60  60  60  30
ROME            70  85  69  88 /  60  60  60  20
PEACHTREE CITY  69  83  70  87 /  60  60  60  30
VIDALIA         72  89  74  89 /  60  60  40  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BALDWIN...BIBB...BLECKLEY...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CRAWFORD...
CRISP...DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...GLASCOCK...HANCOCK...HOUSTON...
JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAURENS...MACON...MARION...
MONTGOMERY...PEACH...PULASKI...SCHLEY...STEWART...SUMTER...
TAYLOR...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...WARREN...
WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKINSON.

&&

SHORT TERM...ARG
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...ARG

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1103 PM EDT TUE AUG 20 2013

GAZ109-210345-
1103 PM EDT TUE AUG 20 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HEAVY RAIN IN DODGE COUNTY UNTIL
1145 PM EDT...

AT 1058 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER FIVE POINTS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.
THIS THUNDERSTORM IS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ACROSS DODGE COUNTY.
ALONG WITH THE RAIN...WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.  ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN AND AN
ADDITIONAL 1 INCH IS POSSIBLE.

RUNOFF FROM THESE STORMS WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS
AND STREAMS...URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES ACROSS
DODGE COUNTY...INCLUDING AREAS AROUND UNION...FIVE POINTS...
GODWINSVILLE...CHAUNCEY...ACHORD...EASTMAN...JAY BIRD SPRINGS...
PLAINFIELD AND CHESTER. ADDITIONALLY...COUNTRY ROADS AND FARMLANDS
ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS ARE SUBJECT TO MINOR FLOODING.

&&

LAT...LON 3210 8332 3242 8316 3223 8303 3215 8300
      3215 8298 3212 8294 3210 8297 3197 8316
TIME...MOT...LOC 0301Z 212DEG 15KT 3210 8319

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1137 PM EDT TUE AUG 20 2013

GAZ097-098-109-111-112-210415-
1137 PM EDT TUE AUG 20 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HEAVY RAIN IN WHEELER...
TREUTLEN...MONTGOMERY...LAURENS AND DODGE COUNTIES UNTIL 1215 AM
EDT...

AT 1131 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
HEAVY RAIN FROM THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM MONTROSE TO 15 MILES
EAST OF SPRING HILL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.  THESE SHOWERS
HAVE BEEN DROPPING 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN AS THEY MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST.

RUNOFF FROM THESE STORMS WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS
AND STREAMS...URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES ACROSS
WHEELER...TREUTLEN...MONTGOMERY...LAURENS AND DODGE COUNTIES...
INCLUDING AREAS AROUND SPRING HILL...GLENWOOD...ALAMO...RENTZ...
DEXTER...CADWELL...CEDAR GROVE...LANDSBURG...LOWERY...MONTROSE...
MOUNT VERNON...HARLOW...DUDLEY...AILEY AND BARNHILL. ADDITIONALLY...
COUNTRY ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS ARE
SUBJECT TO MINOR FLOODING.

&&

LAT...LON 3200 8272 3206 8284 3213 8294 3215 8293
      3216 8298 3229 8305 3233 8309 3255 8321
      3263 8313 3269 8299 3246 8263 3237 8255
      3224 8249 3222 8249
TIME...MOT...LOC 0336Z 211DEG 12KT 3253 8316 3238 8287
          3226 8272 3199 8247

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1220 AM EDT WED AUG 21 2013

GAZ084-097-210500-
1220 AM EDT WED AUG 21 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HEAVY RAIN IN LAURENS AND
WILKINSON COUNTIES UNTIL 100 AM EDT...

AT 1214 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF DUBLIN...MOVING NORTH AT 20
MPH.  RADAR INDICATES THAT 1 TO 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER
WESTERN LAURENS COUNTY.

RUNOFF FROM THESE STORMS WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS
AND STREAMS...URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES ACROSS
LAURENS AND WILKINSON COUNTIES...INCLUDING AREAS AROUND MINTER...
HARLOW...BREWTON...RENTZ...MONTROSE...EAST DUBLIN...DUDLEY...
DEXTER...DUBLIN...CHAPPELLS MILL...TUCKERS CROSSROAD AND
NICKLESVILLE. ADDITIONALLY...COUNTRY ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE
BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS ARE SUBJECT TO MINOR FLOODING.

&&

LAT...LON 3215 8297 3277 8332 3283 8297 3280 8296
      3277 8296 3275 8294 3271 8296 3272 8286
      3270 8282 3235 8273 3233 8275 3231 8272
      3219 8289
TIME...MOT...LOC 0419Z 174DEG 19KT 3260 8298