Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
351 PM EDT FRI JUL 26 2013

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CURRENT RADARS SHOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS GENERALLY EAST OF
A LINE FROM ELLIJAY THROUGH ATLANTA TO BUENA VISTA. THE TSTMS WERE
MOVING NNE AT 5 KTS. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE TSTMS MAY TRIGGER
ADDITIONAL STORMS BEFORE DIMINISHING BY SUNSET. EXPECT THE AIRMASS
OVER GA TO STABILIZE DURING THE NIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING BY
MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY.

THE NAM/GFS MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT WITH A STRONGER BUT WEAKENING
UPPER TROUGH MOVING TO GA ON SATURDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE TN RIVER VALLEY TO NW GA LATE. ONCE AGAIN
THE MAV MOS POPS SEEM LOW AND AM FAVORING THE HIGHER MET MOS POPS
ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS NORTH AND WEST CENTRAL
GA FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

FORECAST TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR NORMAL TONIGHT AND SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR SATURDAY.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

16

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL/SOUTH GA SATURDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUING A SOUTHWARD DRIFT ON SUNDAY. HAVE KEPT A
DIMINISHING TREND FOR POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST DURING THAT TIME
FRAME WITH SOMEWHAT HIGHER POPS FOR CENTRAL. WE REMAIN IN A
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD AND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
A COUPLE OF UPPER IMPULSES WITH SHORT BREAKS IN BETWEEN. A DIURNAL
PATTERN STILL LOOKS REASONABLE AND HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

41

&&

.PREVIOUS...
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONG TERM BEGINS WITH THE TAIL END OF A SHORTWAVE CONTINUING TO MOVE
THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT SO STILL EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL
POPS...ALTHOUGH MAY BE A BIT OF A DECREASE COMPARED TO SATURDAY GIVEN
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND LOSS OF THE STRONGER INFLUENCE OF
THE SHORTWAVE. JUST AS IN THE SHORT TERM...GUIDANCE POPS SEEM TOO
LOW /ESPECIALLY THE MAV POPS/...SO HAVE GONE ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR THE
MOST PART. DESPITE THE SHORTWAVE PUSHING EAST OF GEORGIA ON
SUNDAY...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS STILL STRETCHED ACROSS CENTRAL
GEORGIA AND THIS WILL HELP TO ENHANCE POPS ACROSS THAT AREA FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO NORTH GEORGIA ON SUNDAY...MODELS ARE DRYING OUT NORTHWEST
GEORGIA BUT WITH WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW AND IT BEING SUMMERTIME...NOT
WILLING TO GO DRY WITH THE FORECAST ACROSS THAT AREA. AFTER
THIS...NEXT MAIN SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE CWA WILL BE A SHORTWAVE
EXPECTED IN THE MID-WEEK TIME FRAME. 00Z ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER
THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN AND THUS IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z
GFS. WITH BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS...HAVE SHOWN THE BETTER
PRECIP CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES SEEMS REASONABLE. FOR THE MOST PART
HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 80S AND ARE FORECAST TO BE A FEW DEGREES
BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.

11

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
A FEW AREAS HAVE LINGERING MVFR CIGS DUE TO IFR CIGS EARLIER AND A
SLOWER WARMUP. ISOLATED TSTMS BEGAN TO DEVELOP AROUND 15Z AND
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE. HAVE FORECAST VCSH
AT MOST TAF SITES FOR THE AFTERNOON EXCEPT ATL WHERE A TSTM WAS
ALREADY JUST EAST OF THE AIRFIELD MOVING SLOWLY NORTH. OTHER TAF
LOCATIONS MAY EXPERIENCE SOMETHING SIMILAR SO WILL AMD ACCORDINGLY.
A LIGHT SE-S FLOW SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT. A MORE ORGANIZED
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL GA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS. A SW WIND OF 5-10 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED
BY 16Z ON SATURDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON ALL ELEMENTS.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          70  85  70  87 /  20  50  30  30
ATLANTA         71  85  70  85 /  10  50  30  30
BLAIRSVILLE     66  80  63  81 /  30  70  30  30
CARTERSVILLE    69  85  66  86 /  10  50  30  20
COLUMBUS        71  88  72  89 /  10  50  30  40
GAINESVILLE     70  83  69  85 /  20  60  30  30
MACON           71  89  70  90 /  10  50  40  40
ROME            68  84  66  85 /  10  50  30  20
PEACHTREE CITY  68  86  69  86 /   5  50  30  30
VIDALIA         71  88  72  90 /  20  40  30  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...16

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