Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
301 PM EDT SUN JUL 21 2013

...HIGH RAIN CHANCES TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INDEED DEVELOPED ACROSS
THE AREA IN HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT ENVIRONMENT WITH CLOSE TO 2 INCH
PWATS. ALTHOUGH INITIAL SOUNDING THIS MORNING CAME IN WITH MORE OF
A NARROW CAPE PROFILE ALOFT WITH LIMITED LAPSE RATES...MODIFIED
SOUNDING FOR 84 CAME IN WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL CAPE ALOFT AND AN
ENVIRONMENT MORE CONDUCIVE FOR STRONG STORMS. HAVE SEEN SOME
CLEARING OF THE MORNING STRATUS DECK AND A LITTLE WORRIED NOW WE
COULD SEE TEMPS EVEN A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED 84.
BEST CHANCES OF STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE OVER THE
NORTHERN TIER WHERE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN SLOWER TO DEVELOP TODAY.
ALTHOUGH THE HIGH PWATS WOULD POINT TO A HIGHER FLASH FLOODING
POTENTIAL...SEEING MORE MOVEMENT TO THE STORMS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS
WHICH SHOULD PRECLUDE EXTENSIVE FLOODING CONCERNS.

LATE ARRIVING SHORTWAVE TONIGHT COULD ALLOW FOR ACTIVITY TO LINGER
ON INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS AND HAVE KEPT POPS IN LONGER THAN
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.

FOR MONDAY...WILL GET FURTHER SYNOPTIC INFLUENCES AS MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS DIGS INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SHOULD BE
CONTINUED HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND WITH SYNOPTIC LIFT...SHOULD
HAVE NO PROBLEM REALIZING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS. ONLY FLY
IN THE OINTMENT WILL BE HOW MUCH INITIAL LOW CLOUDINESS IMPEDES
INITIAL DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS POINT...FEEL IT WILL BE MUCH LIKE
TODAY AND SHOULD EVENTUALLY EASILY REACH CONVECTIVE TEMP AND WILL
THUS KEEP POPS CATEGORICAL THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FAVORING
SOUTHERN SECTIONS SLIGHTLY.

DEESE

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM.
BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...AT LEAST CONCERNING THE LARGER SCALE
DETAILS OF THE OVERALL PATTERN OF PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. GFS/ECMWF AND CMC MODELS ALL SHOWING A
DECENT SHORT WAVE IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
THE INITIAL UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER THEY
ARE ALSO SHOWING SOME DRIER AIR INFILTRATING BY TUESDAY SO MONDAY
STILL SEEMS TO BE THE DAY FOR HIGHEST POPS. SURFACE LEE TROUGH ALSO
PERSISTS OVER THE REGION...HOWEVER NONE OF THE MODELS ARE DEPICTING
AN ACTIVE FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH THIS SHORT WAVE FOR THE BEGINNING OF
THE WEEK. LATER IN THE WORK WEEK THE GFS/ECMWF AND CMC MODELS KEEP
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS EAST OF THE STATE AND EVEN BEGIN TO BUILD THE
WESTERN U.S. RIDGE TOWARD THE REGION. MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING SOME
DECREASE IN OVERALL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WORK WEEK...BUT ALL OF THIS WOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO SHUT DOWN
DIURNAL CONVECTION COMPLETELY. MODELS SHOW A NEW SHORT WAVE DIGGING
INTO THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND BRINGING PERHAPS
ANOTHER SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...
BUT THE MODELS ARE ALSO KEEPING OVERALL MOISTURE A BIT MORE
REASONABLE. I PLAN ON KEEPING THE CHANCE POP TREND WE CURRENTLY HAVE
IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST GRIDS THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND A BIT BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD WITH AMPLE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION...BUT ARE LIKELY TO
EDGE BACK UP TOWARD NORMAL DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS WE DRY OUT A BIT.

20

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...SHRA BUILDING RAPIDLY BUT MAINLY AFFECTING THE
SOUTHERN TERMINALS AT THIS HOUR. DELAYED TEMPO SLIGHTLY FOR THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS BRINGING IN ACTIVITY AT 20Z. THIS MAY NEED TO
BE EXTENDED BY LATER SHIFT AS ACTIVITY MAY LINGER WELL INTO THE
LATE EVENING HOURS. ANOTHER REPEAT OF LOW CIGS DEVELOPING TONIGHT
ALTHOUGH INCREASED LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY KEEP SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
YESTERDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER ROUND OF TSRA FOR MON WITH
PROB30 ALREADY ADVERTISED FOR STL.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CIGS AND VSBYS AND HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          71  86  71  88 /  60  70  50  50
ATLANTA         72  83  71  86 /  80  60  50  50
BLAIRSVILLE     68  81  67  84 /  60  60  40  50
CARTERSVILLE    71  83  70  86 /  80  60  40  50
COLUMBUS        73  85  73  91 /  80  80  60  50
GAINESVILLE     71  83  70  86 /  60  60  50  50
MACON           72  87  71  89 /  70  80  60  50
ROME            71  83  71  86 /  80  70  40  50
PEACHTREE CITY  71  84  70  87 /  80  60  50  50
VIDALIA         74  87  72  89 /  60  80  60  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...DEESE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
652 AM EDT SUN JUL 21 2013

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-221100-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
652 AM EDT SUN JUL 21 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING.

DISCUSSION...

THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE IN THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST REGION WILL ROTATE AROUND ITSELF WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE
ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WILL CONTRIBUTE LARGE AMOUNTS
OF RAINFALL COMING FROM THE STORMS AS THEY PASS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH DAY...DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
310 PM EDT SUN JUL 21 2013

GAZ104>106-211945-
310 PM EDT SUN JUL 21 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DIME SIZED HAIL...45 MPH WINDS
AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IN SUMTER...CRISP AND DOOLY
COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM EDT...

AT 306 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER GEORGIA VETERANS MEMORIAL STATE PARK...
MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. TREES CAN EASILY COME DOWN IN THESE WINDS
WITH ALREADY WET SOIL. THOSE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER
IMMEDIATELY!

WIND GUSTS OF 45 MPH ARE LIKELY AS THIS STORM MOVES ACROSS SUMTER...
CRISP AND DOOLY COUNTIES THROUGH 345 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE
PATH OF THE STORM INCLUDE DRAYTON...COBB...GEORGIA VETERANS MEMORIAL
STATE PARK...RAINES...RICHWOOD...VIENNA...CORDELE...WENONA...EAST
CRISP...TREMONT...HATLEY AND TIPPETTVILLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3191 8394 3191 8402 3205 8404 3217 8362
      3209 8361 3189 8361 3188 8394
TIME...MOT...LOC 1910Z 263DEG 20KT 3197 8391

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
415 PM EDT SUN JUL 21 2013

GAZ092-093-212045-
415 PM EDT SUN JUL 21 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 40 MPH WINDS IN SCHLEY AND MACON
COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM EDT...

AT 411 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER WALLS CROSSING...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.
TREES CAN EASILY COME DOWN IN THESE WINDS WITH ALREADY WET SOIL.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH ARE LIKELY AS THIS STORM MOVES ACROSS SCHLEY AND
MACON COUNTIES THROUGH 445 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE
STORM INCLUDE CONCORD...WALLS CROSSING...ELLAVILLE...MURRAYS
CROSSROADS...FOUNTAINVILLE...BARTLETT...GARDEN VALLEY AND IDEAL.

&&

LAT...LON 3218 8442 3230 8441 3230 8439 3235 8439
      3238 8432 3237 8426 3240 8425 3240 8420
      3243 8417 3246 8410 3226 8408
TIME...MOT...LOC 2015Z 251DEG 17KT 3228 8433