Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
202 PM EDT MON JUL 15 2013

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM EDT MON JUL 15 2013/

.UPDATE...
SLUG OF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT WESTWARD OFF ATLANTIC AS IT
ROTATES IN ALONG SOUTHERN EXTENT OF UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY. HAVE SEEN WIDESPREAD SHOWER DEVELOPMENT BEGIN TO FILL
IN WITH ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AND HAS BEEN A BIT EARLIER THAN
THOUGHT...SO HAVE ADJUSTED TO HIGHER POPS SOONER AND ALSO INCLUDED
SOME LIKELY POPS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTH BASED ON RECENT HI-RES
SOLUTIONS. WITH DECENT CU FIELD EXTENDING AREA-WIDE...TEMPS HAVE
BEEN TRENDING COOLER SO HAVE BUMPED AFTERNOON MAX VALUES DOWN
SLIGHTLY. OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY ON TRACK AND
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

BAKER

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 740 AM EDT MON JUL 15 2013/

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AXIS OF BETTER MOISTURE SHIFTING WEST OF THE CWA TODAY AS THE UPPER
LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT TO THE WEST...AND CENTER OF UPPER RIDGE
REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE PRECIPITABLE WATER DECREASING SOME THROUGH
TUESDAY. HOWEVER DEEP EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM AND THIS SHOULD SUPPORT PLENTY OF CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS. A MORE DIURNAL PATTERN FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS REASONABLE WITH BEST CHANCES DURING THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD SHOW A WARMING
TREND DURING THE SHORT TERM...AS INDICATED BY HIGH THICKNESS VALUES
AND SOMEWHAT LESS COVERAGE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. NO WIDESPREAD
FLASH FLOOD ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

41

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE OH-MID MS VALLEYS TO START THE
LONG TERM. A MOIST AIRMASS WILL STILL BE IN PLACE AS A DEEP EASTERLY
FLOW PATTERN PERSISTS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A MORE DIURNAL TENDENCY TO
ANY CONVECTION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE WEAKENING AND THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE WESTERLY FOR
SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
ENHANCEMENT FROM SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL INCREASE FROM SATURDAY ON
ALONG WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AVAILABLE. ALL IN ALL TEMPERATURES
SHOULD GENERALLY BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH THE HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL LATER IN THE PERIOD.

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
MAINLY BORDERLINE VFR TO MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON EVENTUALLY
LOWERING TO IFR AFTER 08Z TONIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR CIGS TO STAY LOW
END MVFR AS WELL. SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AND SCATTER NEAR 5 KFT
AFTER 16Z TUESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH
BEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 20-00Z. WINDS STAYING
MAINLY EAST WITH SOME LOW END GUSTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
HIGHER POTENTIAL IN ANY TSRA ALONG WITH MVFR VSBYS. WINDS 5-7 KTS
OVERNIGHT AND STAYING MAINLY 10 KTS OR LESS TUESDAY MAINLY OUT OF
EAST AS WELL.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN OVERNIGHT CIGS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELSE.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          85  70  89  71 /  40  20  20  10
ATLANTA         84  71  87  72 /  40  30  20  10
BLAIRSVILLE     83  64  89  67 /  30  20  20  20
CARTERSVILLE    86  70  89  68 /  40  30  20  10
COLUMBUS        87  72  91  72 /  50  30  30  10
GAINESVILLE     84  70  88  73 /  40  20  20  10
MACON           87  71  90  71 /  60  30  30  10
ROME            87  70  90  69 /  40  30  20  10
PEACHTREE CITY  85  70  88  69 /  50  30  20  10
VIDALIA         88  72  91  72 /  60  30  40  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...41/BAKER
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...BAKER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
440 AM EDT MON JUL 15 2013

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-161000-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
440 AM EDT MON JUL 15 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
   TODAY INTO TONIGHT...

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING.

DISCUSSION...
A MOIST AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA CONTINUING THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EVEN THOUGH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN CAN BE
EXPECTED...ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS NOT LIKELY. HOWEVER...WITH VERY
WET SOILS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH WIND TO DOWN
TREES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH SUNDAY...MOST SO IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL GENERALLY BE LOW. HOWEVER...
ANY THUNDERSTORM WINDS COULD BLOW DOWN TREES DUE TO VERY WET SOIL
CONDITIONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
315 PM EDT MON JUL 15 2013

GAZ074-083>085-095>097-151945-
315 PM EDT MON JUL 15 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 40 MPH WINDS IN WASHINGTON...
TWIGGS...LAURENS...JOHNSON...WILKINSON...BLECKLEY AND HOUSTON
COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM EDT...

AT 312 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM SPANN TO COLEY STATION...MOVING NORTHWEST
AT 20 MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS THEY MOVE ACROSS
WASHINGTON...TWIGGS...LAURENS...JOHNSON...WILKINSON...BLECKLEY AND
HOUSTON COUNTIES THROUGH 345 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF
THESE STORMS INCLUDE LOVETT...MONTROSE...DUDLEY...PAULK...
GOLDSBORO...REBIE...ROYAL...PORTER...COLEY STATION...COCHRAN...
SPANN...WRIGHTSVILLE...CARY...DONOVAN AND CHAPPELLS MILL. HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

THE HIGH RAIN TOTALS SEEN THUS FAR THIS SEASON HAS RESULTED IN
PERSISTENT WET SOILS FOR AREA TREES. THIS WILL ALLOW THESE TREES TO
FALL DUE TO WINDS MUCH LOWER THAN IN A TYPICAL SEASON...AS LOW AS 30
MPH IN SOME CASES.

&&

LAT...LON 3264 8254 3256 8299 3233 8341 3253 8367
      3260 8372 3261 8371 3264 8372 3267 8371
      3268 8368 3266 8360 3270 8361 3273 8360
      3285 8339 3293 8292
TIME...MOT...LOC 1914Z 125DEG 18KT 3268 8274 3262 8309
          3244 8342

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