Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
412 PM EDT FRI JUL 12 2013

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SAGGING SOUTH AND ACROSS THE METRO AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE HAS PROVIDED THE CONVERGENCE TO SPARK
CONVECTION ALONG A LA GRANGE TO FOREST PARK TO CLEVELAND LINE THIS
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OCCURRING SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...
BUT EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SETTLE INTO
CENTRAL GA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG
TO SEVERE... WITH STRONG WINDS... FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN THE MAIN THREATS THROUGH MAX HEATING. ALSO...WITH GROUNDS
SO SATURATED... MINOR FLOODING AND DOWN TREES WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH MID EVENING EVEN WITH 40 TO 45 MPH WIND GUSTS. ANY ISOLATED
SEVERE STORM THREAT WILL GREATLY DIMINISH BY 8-9 PM THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE... ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS POSSIBLE FOR AREAS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY... MAINLY ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL GA
OVERNIGHT. THEN MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LOW... CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER
KY/OH... RETROGRADING WESTWARD TONIGHT AND CONTINUING ON SATURDAY.
THIS WILL DRAG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY NORTHWARD... SPREADING DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE BACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. AS A RESULT.. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO SPREAD OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA TOWARDS MORNING... THEN GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING... WITH THE GREATER CHANCES FOR THUNDER GENERALLY ALONG AND
EAST OF A CARROLLTON TO CLEVELAND LINE. THE CLOUDS AND DEEP MOISTURE
SHOULD HOLD HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S ON SATURDAY... LIMIT
INSTABILITIES ENOUGH TO HELP HOLD CONVECTION BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.
THE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL
CONTINUE THE CONCERNS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FLOOD PROBLEMS
AGAIN ON SATURDAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE WARRANTED LATER THIS
WEEKEND... BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW AND ADDRESS THIS ISSUE WITH
LATER SHIFTS AND MODEL RUNS.

39

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LONG TERM FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK ONLY CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE
POPS SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN LATEST GUIDANCE.
OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE GRIDS. SEE THE DISCUSSION
BELOW FOR OVERALL THINKING.

11

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
/ISSUED 412 AM EDT FRI JUL 12 2013/
LONG TERM BEGINS WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW DRIFTING WEST OF THE
MID MS VALLEY...WITH A SOUTHEAST FLOW OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE CWA.
THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT WESTWARD WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. THIS PUTS THE CWA IN A DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE CWA THROUGH THE PERIOD LOOK
REASONABLE. PATTERN SHOULD BECOME MORE DIURNAL TOWARD MID WEEK AS
THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO EXPAND OVER THE EASTERN STATES.

41

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE GROUND ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA REMAINS MOIST.
ALTHOUGH ONLY A QUARTER TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH SOME
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS. THE OVERALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED ARE BELOW 1HR
FFG BUT IF HIGHER AMOUNTS OCCUR AND AREAS RECEIVE MULTIPLE DAYS OF
RAINFALL...LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. NOT ENOUGH
TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
MID LEVEL SCT-BKN CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND THE ATLANTA AIRPORTS AS A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE METRO AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW VCSH
THRU 23Z AT ATL AS EXPECT CONVECTION TO REMAIN SHOWERS WITH LACK
OF DEEP MOISTURE AND UPPER SUPPORT. EXPECT TEMPO -TSRA AT CSG AND
MCN THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITIES ARE
POOLED. IFR CIGS WITH MVFR VSBYS RETURN TO ALL TAF SITES BY 08-10Z
SAT AS AN EASTERLY FLOW SPREADS AMPLE LOW CLOUDS AND MOISTURE
INLAND. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN SCT SHWRS/TSRA SAT AFTERNOON WITH
DAYTIME HEATING. AN EAST WIND AT 09-11KTS WILL PREVAIL ON SAT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON EARLY MORN IFR CIGS AND AFTN CONVECTION SUN AFTN.
HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENT.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          68  84  70  85 /  20  60  40  30
ATLANTA         70  84  69  85 /  20  50  40  40
BLAIRSVILLE     65  82  68  82 /  20  40  30  30
CARTERSVILLE    68  86  71  85 /  20  40  30  40
COLUMBUS        70  86  70  87 /  30  50  40  40
GAINESVILLE     69  82  69  83 /  20  40  40  40
MACON           70  85  71  87 /  40  70  60  40
ROME            67  87  71  86 /  10  40  30  40
PEACHTREE CITY  68  84  69  85 /  20  50  40  40
VIDALIA         72  85  73  89 /  60  70  60  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...39
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...39

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
504 PM EDT FRI JUL 12 2013

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-132115-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
504 PM EDT FRI JUL 12 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA THROUGH TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS
IS EXTREME NORTHWEST GEORGIA WHERE PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED
DUE TO THE DRIER AIR THAT HAS MOVED IN. ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...GENERALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF AN ATHENS TO ATLANTA LINE.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

PERIODS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE STILL POSSIBLE
THROUGH TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. SOILS REMAIN
SATURATED AND SOME LOCAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF AN
ATLANTA TO ATHENS LINE...HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS...AND SMALL HAIL. WITH SATURATED
SOILS...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH WIND TO BLOW DOWN TREES. SOME
ISOLATED STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING WINDS IN EXCESS OF
60 MPH AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS ON
SATURDAY BUT BECOME MORE SCATTERED AND WITH A MORE DIURNAL
PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL STILL BE PERIODS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS SO LOCALIZED FLOODING
WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
650 PM EDT FRI JUL 12 2013

GAZ069>071-079>081-089>093-102-103-122330-
650 PM EDT FRI JUL 12 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 35 MPH WINDS
IN WEBSTER...TALBOT...STEWART...SCHLEY...MUSCOGEE...MONROE...
MARION...LAMAR...UPSON...MACON...TAYLOR...CHATTAHOOCHEE AND CRAWFORD
COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM EDT...

AT 647 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM CULLODEN TO FORT BENNING/LAWSON ARMY AIR
FIELD...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS WEBSTER...TALBOT...STEWART...SCHLEY...MUSCOGEE...MONROE...
MARION...LAMAR...UPSON...MACON...TAYLOR...CHATTAHOOCHEE AND CRAWFORD
COUNTIES THROUGH 730 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE
STORMS INCLUDE JUNIPER...EELBECK/WEST FORT BENNING...FORT
BENNING/LAWSON ARMY AIR FIELD...BATTLE PARK...CUSTER ROAD TERRACE...
SAND HILL...NORTH FORT BENNING...CARSONVILLE...BALDWINVILLE...
PRATTSBURG...BOX SPRINGS...JUNCTION CITY...GENEVA...CULLODEN AND
LOGTOWN. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3194 8497 3197 8497 3198 8506 3200 8507
      3209 8506 3213 8507 3226 8490 3232 8501
      3238 8498 3271 8441 3299 8410 3269 8389
      3241 8409 3217 8436 3216 8443 3210 8443
      3191 8465
TIME...MOT...LOC 2250Z 330DEG 5KT 3284 8412 3264 8436
          3232 8490

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
701 PM EDT FRI JUL 12 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0654 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 NNE LILBURN           33.94N 84.11W
07/12/2013                   GWINNETT           GA   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            THE SWEETWATER CREEK GAUGE NEAR LILBURN EXPERIENCED FLASH
            FLOOD CONDITIONS FROM EARLIER HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

DEESE

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
724 PM EDT FRI JUL 12 2013

GAZ102-130015-
724 PM EDT FRI JUL 12 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 35 MPH WINDS
IN STEWART COUNTY UNTIL 815 PM EDT...

AT 720 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER PROVIDENCE CANYON STATE PARK...MOVING SOUTH
AT 20 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
STEWART COUNTY THROUGH 815 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS
STORM INCLUDE CHARLES...LOUVALE...OMAHA...PROVIDENCE CANYON STATE
PARK...FLORENCE MARINA STATE PARK...LUMPKIN...WESTVILLE AND SANFORD.
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3192 8492 3195 8497 3197 8497 3197 8504
      3200 8507 3209 8506 3213 8507 3219 8501
      3220 8498 3221 8498 3223 8497 3221 8482
      3192 8470
TIME...MOT...LOC 2324Z 358DEG 17KT 3207 8497

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
726 PM EDT FRI JUL 12 2013

GAZ027-036>038-130015-
726 PM EDT FRI JUL 12 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 45 MPH WINDS
IN OGLETHORPE...OCONEE...MADISON AND CLARKE COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM
EDT...

AT 725 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER HULL...MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS OGLETHORPE...OCONEE...MADISON AND CLARKE COUNTIES THROUGH 815
PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE JAMES
HOLLAND YOUTH SPORTS COMPLEX...SANDY CREEK RECREATION AREA...BARRETTS
MILL...DIAMOND HILL...NEESE...HULL...COLBERT...SMITHONIA...ATHENS...
WINTERVILLE...DUNLAP...SANDY CROSS...STATE BOTANICAL GARDEN OF
GEORGIA...WHITEHALL AND ARNOLDSVILLE. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3374 8340 3402 8341 3404 8339 3404 8336
      3405 8339 3406 8338 3413 8322 3387 8297
TIME...MOT...LOC 2326Z 354DEG 14KT 3401 8327

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
741 PM EDT FRI JUL 12 2013

GAZ080-092-093-130030-
741 PM EDT FRI JUL 12 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 35 MPH WINDS
IN SCHLEY...MACON AND TAYLOR COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM EDT...

AT 739 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER RUPERT...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
SCHLEY...MACON AND TAYLOR COUNTIES THROUGH 830 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS
IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE HICKS...POTTERVILLE...CHARING...
BUTLER...GARDEN VALLEY...RUPERT...CEDAR CREEK AND IDEAL. HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3243 8439 3243 8440 3245 8441 3256 8442
      3267 8421 3242 8396 3232 8439
TIME...MOT...LOC 2341Z 357DEG 9KT 3246 8428