Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
347 PM EDT SUN JUL 7 2013

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

CURRENT SATELLITE LOOP CONTINUES TO SHOWS LARGE MOISTURE PLUME
EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC...ACROSS THE GULF...AND UP
THROUGH GA. THIS PLUME IS CONTINUES TO PUMP DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION. PWS ARE UP NEAR 2 INCHES RIGHT NOE AND STAY THERE
THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT TERM. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE BOTH
SHOWING THIS PLUME REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL BRING AT LEAST ANOTHER INCH OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. THE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW A BIT OF A
PATTERN CHANGE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY MOVING EAST AND OFF
HE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 12Z TUE. AT THE SAME TIME THE WEAKENING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL HELP
SHIFT THE TROPICAL PLUME NORTH AND WESTWARD INTO THE EXTENDED. WITH
THE PLUME STAYING ACROSS THE REGION...HAVE EXTENDED TO FLOOD WATCH
THROUGH 00Z TUE.

01

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED. SOME DRYING STILL INDICATED BY
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY SO DECREASED POPS STILL LOOK OKAY NORTH AND
WEST. MODELS STILL SHOW CLOSED UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION INCLUDED BELOW.

41

.PREVIOUS...
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXTENDED BEGINS WITH UPPER WAVE MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
WHILE CLOSED LOW OVER THE BAHAMAS IS WORKING ITS WAY WEST...AND
BETWEEN THESE TWO THE ATLANTIC HIGH IS RIDGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST.
THE EXITING SYSTEM ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ALLOWS THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE BOUNDARY/FRONT TO ELONGATE AND STRETCH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA.
ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROUGH PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY MIDWEEK AND WITH CONTINUE SOUTHERLY FLOW
FROM THE ATLANTIC AND GULF...PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN
WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY INTO THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY AND A SURFACE FRONT MOVES INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
REALLY REMARKABLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...THOUGH THE ECMWF IS A TAD DEEPER WITH THE WAVE INTO THE
SOUTHEAST AND A LITTLE BIT MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED.

LATE IN THE WORK WEEK THIS TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG AND DEEPEN INTO
THE GREAT LAKES...EVENTUALLY FORMING A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY. GFS A LITTLE FASTER WITH THIS TRANSITION BUT STILL
PRETTY SIMILAR IN OVERALL DEPICTION. TROUGH AXIS PROGGED TO BE
GENERALLY ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE STATE...THUS REDUCING PRECIP
CHANCES ACROSS NORTHWEST GEORGIA BUT KEEPING POPS IN SOUTHEAST
ZONES. THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND DIG TO THE SOUTHWEST...
RETROGRADING IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING UPPER HIGH OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND WESTERN PLAINS. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE CUTOFF
LOW IS SOMEWHERE EITHER IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY OR SOUTHEAST...
WITH BOTH MODELS CONTINUING TO RETROGRADE IT TO THE WEST BEYOND
THE END OF THE PERIOD. SO IN GENERAL...IT LOOKS LIKE NEXT WEEK
COULD BE A REPEAT OF WHAT WE SAW THIS PAST WEEK WITH SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE TRANSPORT OUT OF THE GULF. WILL WAIT AND SEE HOW THIS
PLAYS OUT.

TEMPS REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. IF WE HAVE TO
PUT UP WITH ALL THE RAIN AND POTENTIAL FLOODING...AT LEAST WE GET
COOLER TEMPS OUT OF IT. HOWEVER...THERE IS A LARGER CONCERN THAT
WITH THIS CONTINUED WET PATTERN WE COULD BE SETTING THE STAGE FOR
SOME REAL PROBLEMS IF WE GET A TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVING IN.

TDP

&&

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE AREA RIGHT NOW WITH VFR TO MVFR
CEILINGS AND VSBYS. THIS LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE RAIN WILL DIMINISH SOME OVER NIGHT BUT
RETURN AGAIN MONDAY. WINDS ARE OUT OF THE SW AND SHOULD TURN TO
THE SE AFTER 00Z. WINDS WILL GO BACK TO THE SW MONDAY AFTER
16-18Z. WINDS SPEEDS WILL STAY IN THE 5-10KT RANGE. CEILINGS AND
VSBYS SHOULD STAY IN THE VFR TO MVFR RANGE.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z
UPDATE... CONFIDENCE MEDIUM ON ALL ELEMENTS.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          70  86  71  87 /  50  50  30  30
ATLANTA         70  84  72  86 /  40  50  30  30
BLAIRSVILLE     67  78  66  81 /  50  60  30  40
CARTERSVILLE    69  86  69  86 /  40  60  30  30
COLUMBUS        73  89  73  91 /  30  50  20  30
GAINESVILLE     68  83  71  85 /  50  60  30  40
MACON           73  88  72  89 /  30  50  20  30
ROME            70  86  70  86 /  50  60  30  30
PEACHTREE CITY  70  84  70  86 /  40  50  30  30
VIDALIA         72  90  72  90 /  30  30  20  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...DADE...DAWSON...
DEKALB...DOUGLAS...FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...
GORDON...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...HARALSON...HEARD...HENRY...
JACKSON...LUMPKIN...MADISON...MORGAN...MURRAY...NEWTON...NORTH
FULTON...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PICKENS...POLK...
ROCKDALE...SOUTH FULTON...TALIAFERRO...TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...
WALTON...WHITE...WHITFIELD...WILKES.

&&

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...01

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
121 PM EDT SUN JUL 7 2013

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-081730-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
121 PM EDT SUN JUL 7 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE STATE WITH SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY. THE GROUND ACROSS THE
AREA IS SATURATED AND ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN CAN LEAD TO FLOODING
OR FLASH FLOODING. THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. RESIDENTS ARE URGED NOT TO LET THEIR GUARD DOWN DURING THIS
PERIOD OF PROLONGED RAINFALL.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

PERIODS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY MAY LEAD TO
ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
AVERAGING BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED GENERALLY NORTH
OF ATLANTA...WITH AT LEAST A HALF INCH EXPECTED NORTH A COLUMBUS
TO DUBLIN LINE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE
WHERE STORMS REPEATEDLY TRACK.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO
40 MPH OR GREATER. WITH SATURATED SOILS...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH
WIND TO DOWN TREES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

ALTHOUGH THE RAINFALL MAY NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE
WILL STILL BE PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. NORTH GEORGIA WILL AGAIN HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT ACCUMULATING
HIGH RAINFALL TOTALS MAY LEAD TO MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ACROSS
THE AREA. PERSONS PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1059 AM EDT SUN JUL 07 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       5 WSW MCCAYSVILLE-COPPE 34.96N 84.45W
07/07/2013  M3.75 INCH       FANNIN             GA   COCORAHS

            THIS IS A 24 HOUR TOTAL.

&&

GWETZEL

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
448 PM EDT SUN JUL 7 2013

GAZ001>003-072130-
448 PM EDT SUN JUL 7 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HEAVY RAIN IN WALKER...CATOOSA
AND DADE COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM EDT...

AT 442 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN FROM RISING FAWN TO
MORGANVILLE AND CHATTANOOGA VALLEY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

RUNOFF FROM THESE STORMS WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS
AND STREAMS...URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND LOW-LYING AREAS
ACROSS NORTHERN WALKER...WESTERN CATOOSA AND DADE COUNTIES...
INCLUDING AREAS AROUND COLE CITY...RISING FAWN...TRENTON...
FAIRVIEW...CLOUDLAND CANYON STATE PARK...NEW ENGLAND...FORT
OGLETHORPE...MORGANVILLE...CEDAR GROVE...HOOKER...WILDWOOD...
BOYNTON...LAKEVIEW...INDIAN SPRINGS AND COOPER HEIGHTS.
ADDITIONALLY...COUNTRY ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS
AND STREAMS ARE SUBJECT TO MINOR FLOODING.

&&

LAT...LON 3499 8561 3499 8513 3489 8512 3472 8526
      3462 8554
TIME...MOT...LOC 2045Z 246DEG 13KT 3495 8529 3494 8548
          3473 8550