Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
255 PM EDT FRI JUL 5 2013

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
NAM AND GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE MOISTURE
PLUME AXIS THAT HAS BEEN SITTING OVER ALABAMA IS FORECAST TO DRIFT
EAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM BRINGING THE AXIS INTO GA BY LATE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND THE LATEST FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD WATCHES. GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN RUNNING A BIT TOO COOL ON MIN TEMPS AND A BIT TOO WARM ON
MAX TEMPS. WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS...HOWEVER MAX TEMPS SATURDAY WILL
BE TRICKY AS ANY SUNSHINE WILL BOOST TEMPS INTO THE MID AND UPPER
80S...POSSIBLY NEAR 90 AS WE ARE ALREADY SEEING TODAY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. MIN TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM AS DEWPOINTS
ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD IN THE LOW TO MID 70S SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS.

17

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE CURRENT LONG TERM FORECAST GRIDS.
PLEASE REFERENCE THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

20

/PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION/SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES WET WITH PERSISTENT UPPER LOW OVER
THE MISSOURI VALLEY SPAWNING ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS UPPER SUPPORT ALONG WITH PWATS REMAINING WELL ABOVE 2
INCHES WILL ALLOW FOR LIKELY POPS EVEN INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
WITH HEALTHY AMOUNTS OF QPF IN THE .30 TO .50 RANGE FOR SIX HOUR
PERIODS. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...UPPER LOW WILL TRANSITION INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY WITH GFS DEPICTING UPPER TROUGH AXIS INTO NORTHERN
GEORGIA. WITH CONTINUED AMPLE MOISTURE...EXPECT CATEGORICAL POPS
GIVEN SHORTWAVE ENERGY AVAILABLE TO FUEL STORM DEVELOPMENT.

AS LOW FINALLY KICKS OUT THROUGH MIDWEEK...MOISTURE AXIS PIVOTS
BUT REMAINS OVER THE NORTH GEORGIA PORTION. ALTHOUGH UPPER ENERGY
WILL NOT BE AS PREVALENT...SHOULD SEE MORE THAN ENOUGH INGREDIENTS
TO WARRANT HIGH END CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GFS
INDICATES 48 HOUR TOTALS ENDING THU MORNING OF AN ADDITIONAL 2
INCHES FOR THE NORTHERN TIER WHICH WOULD CREATE ADDITIONAL FLOODING
CONCERNS PENDING WHAT TAKES PLACE THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

BY LATE WED INTO THU...UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF BECOMES MORE OF A
PROMINENT FEATURE AS INFLUENCES OF ATLANTIC UPPER HIGH ABATE.
MEANWHILE...NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIGS SOUTHWARD WITH A
SURFACE BOUNDARY ENTERING NORTH GEORGIA THU AFTERNOON. MOISTURE
POOLING ALONG THIS FEATURE WILL INCREASE POPS ONCE AGAIN AND WILL
CARRY HIGH MID RANGE POPS IN GRIDS FOR NOW.

GIVEN TIME OF YEAR...BOUNDARY DOES NOT MAKE IT VERY FAR INTO THE
FORECAST AREA BEFORE STALLING. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN
DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REGIME WILL KEEP POPS AT OR ABOVE
CLIMO THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH TEMPS AT OR BELOW NORMAL.

DEESE

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE LATEST QPF PROJECTIONS OFF THE MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER 1 TO 2
1/2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND DOWN THE WEST SIDE
OF THE CWA THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH THE GROUND SATURATED OVER MOST OF
THOSE AREAS ALREADY...ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN WILL PUSH RIVERS
AND STREAMS INTO FLOOD. THEREFORE WILL ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR AREAS
NORTH OF A LINE FROM LAGRANGE TO FAYETTEVILLE TO HOMER THROUGH 12Z
SUNDAY. FOR THOSE AREAS SOUTH OF THIS NEW WATCH...WHILE ISOLATED
POCKETS OF HEAVY ARE POSSIBLE IN THE THUNDERSTORMS...WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AND THEREFORE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL
EXPIRE AT 8 PM THIS EVENING AND WILL NOT BE REISSUED.

&&

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
MOST AREAS HAVE GONE VFR AND THOSE THAT HAVENT SHOULD GO VFR IN THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO. SOUTH OF AN AHN-CSG LINE SKIES HAVE DONE PARTLY
SUNNY AND WITH SURFACE HEATING SHOWERS/TSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING. THESE
WILL SPREAD NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE THREAT FOR THUNDER
IS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF TAFS AT THIS TIME BUT CANT RULE IT OUT
COMPLETELY. CIGS WILL DROP TO IFR TONIGHT AND BACK TO MVFR SATURDAY.
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CSG/ATL/AHN AREAS THROUGH
TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON WINDS.
MEDIUM ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          69  85  70  83 /  80  80  60  50
ATLANTA         71  80  72  81 /  80 100  80  60
BLAIRSVILLE     66  74  67  77 /  90 100  80  70
CARTERSVILLE    70  79  71  80 /  90 100  80  70
COLUMBUS        72  86  73  84 /  70  80  70  60
GAINESVILLE     69  79  70  80 /  90 100  80  60
MACON           71  86  72  85 /  50  60  40  30
ROME            70  77  71  82 /  90 100  80  70
PEACHTREE CITY  70  81  71  81 /  80  90  70  60
VIDALIA         72  89  72  89 /  40  50  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BIBB...BLECKLEY...
BUTTS...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...CRAWFORD...CRISP...
DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...DODGE...DOOLY...DOUGLAS...EMANUEL...
FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...GLASCOCK...
GORDON...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...HANCOCK...HARALSON...
HARRIS...HEARD...HENRY...HOUSTON...JACKSON...JASPER...
JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAMAR...LAURENS...LUMPKIN...
MACON...MADISON...MARION...MERIWETHER...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...
MORGAN...MURRAY...MUSCOGEE...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...
OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PEACH...PICKENS...PIKE...POLK...
PULASKI...PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...SCHLEY...SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...
STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...
TOOMBS...TOWNS...TREUTLEN...TROUP...TWIGGS...UNION...UPSON...
WALKER...WALTON...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...
WHITE...WHITFIELD...WILCOX...WILKES...WILKINSON.

FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...CARROLL...
CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...
DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...DOUGLAS...FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...
FORSYTH...GILMER...GORDON...GWINNETT...HALL...HARALSON...HEARD...
JACKSON...LUMPKIN...MERIWETHER...MURRAY...NORTH FULTON...
PAULDING...PICKENS...POLK...SOUTH FULTON...TOWNS...TROUP...
UNION...WALKER...WHITE...WHITFIELD.

&&

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...17

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