Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
334 PM EDT TUE JUN 25 2013

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS CHC AND TIMING OF
CONVECTION THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY LOWER THAN YESTERDAY AND WHAT WAS FCST PREVIOUSLY. LOWER
SFC CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY TODAY MAY BE THE REASON...BUT CANT
COMPLAIN WITH THE RESULT SO FAR. MAY SEE A FEW STORMS EXCEED SVR
CRITERIA BEFORE 00Z BUT SHOULD BE LESS ACTIVE THAN YESTERDAY.

AS WEAK SHORT WAVE PUSHES EAST...MODELS AGREE ON DEVELOPING NW FLOW
OVER THE AREA. SUBSIDENCE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD
SHRA/TSRA WED PM BUT COULD SEE ISOLD STRONG STORMS. NW FLOW BECOMES
UNSEASONABLY STRONG LATE WED NIGHT AND EARLY THURS. LIKELY TO SEE A
WEAK FRONT PUSH THROUGH EARLY THURS IN THIS PATTERN AND SVR STORMS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. STRENGTH OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR QUITE
STRONG WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES AROUND 25-35KTS AND 0-1KM
SHEAR OF 15-20KTS 12Z-18Z THURS. PRESTORM SBCAPE OF 2500-3000 J/KG
PROGGED BY 12Z NAM AND GFS VALID 18Z THURS. TOO SOON TO PIN THIS
DOWN BUT MAY NEED TO BE PREPARED FOR MORE SVR STORMS ON THURS...
POSSIBLY SIMILAR TO OUR JUNE 13 EVENT.

SNELSON

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST AS MINOR DISCREPANCIES EXISTED
WITH LATEST GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS. HAVE MAINLY LEFT POPS UNCHANGED
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING OF ANY UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATIONS AND
EXTENT OF MOISTURE FIELD IN SUCH AN ACTIVE PERIOD. ALSO TWEAKED
FRIDAY MAX TEMPS A BIT HIGHER...OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON
TRACK AND PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

BAKER

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT TUE JUN 25 2013/
OVERALL FORECAST STORY HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH RETREATS BACK OVER THE ATLANTIC BY MID
WEEK...WITH UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN US AS LONG
WAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE EAST COAST. DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND HAVE
GENERALLY GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT AND GOOD CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE DAY THROUGH THE WEEK.

LONG WAVE TROUGH KEEPS THE STATE IN MOIST PATTERN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES KEEPING PRECIP ACROSS THE
AREA...AND AT THIS POINT EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD.
AMPLE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP ACTIVITY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

31

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
PRIMARY CONCERN IS LIKELIHOOD OF TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPED AROUND NOON AS EXPECTED BUT
A LITTLE LESS COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THAN EXPECTED. EXPECT ANY
TSRA TO DIMINISH AFTER 00Z. UNLESS HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURS AT A TAF
SITE...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH FOG OR STRATUS EARLY WED MORNING. SFC
WINDS WILL REMAIN ON A SW TO WEST COMPONENT AT 5-10KTS DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS. SHRA/TSRA CHCS WED AFTERNOON APPEAR TOO LOW TO
MENTION IN FCST BUT MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED AND INCLUDED AT KMCN
AND KCSG.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TSRA LIKELIHOOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

SNELSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          69  88  71  90 /  40  30  20  50
ATLANTA         71  87  72  88 /  30  30  20  30
BLAIRSVILLE     64  83  67  84 /  30  20  30  60
CARTERSVILLE    69  87  71  89 /  20  20  20  40
COLUMBUS        72  90  73  92 /  30  30  20  30
GAINESVILLE     70  85  71  88 /  30  30  20  50
MACON           70  89  71  92 /  40  30  20  30
ROME            68  87  71  90 /  20  20  20  50
PEACHTREE CITY  68  87  70  89 /  30  30  20  30
VIDALIA         71  90  73  93 /  40  40  20  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....31/BAKER
AVIATION...SNELSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
343 PM EDT TUE JUN 25 2013

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-261945-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
343 PM EDT TUE JUN 25 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE INTERACTS WITH
MOISTURE ACROSS THE STATE. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...
THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. IN THE STRONGEST STORMS EXPECT WIND
GUSTS OF 50 MPH OR HIGHER...AND NICKEL SIZE OR LARGER HAIL.

DISCUSSION...
A SHORTWAVE WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY.
SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO BE AREA-WIDE...THOUGH BETTER CHANCE
WILL TRANSITION TO THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA BY THIS
EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEK...WITH SUMMERTIME CONVECTION EXPECTED EACH DAY. IT IS
POSSIBLE FOR SOME ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THE
ENVIRONMENT ON THURSDAY SHOWS SOME BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION WITH FUTURE
UPDATES TO THE FORECAST. EXPECT FREQUENT LIGHTNING...STRONG
WINDS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL AS THE MAIN THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
536 PM EDT TUE JUN 25 2013

GAZ081-252200-
536 PM EDT TUE JUN 25 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DIME SIZED HAIL AND 45 MPH WINDS
IN CRAWFORD COUNTY UNTIL 600 PM EDT...

AT 532 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER MUSELLA...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DIME SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
CRAWFORD COUNTY THROUGH 600 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF
THIS STORM INCLUDE MUSELLA...KNOXVILLE...ROBERTA AND SANDY POINT.
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3273 8411 3285 8411 3286 8397 3285 8390
      3282 8389 3280 8386 3277 8385 3272 8379
      3267 8379 3266 8382
TIME...MOT...LOC 2136Z 271DEG 8KT 3277 8400

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