Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
323 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE NOW CENTERED OVER
EASTERN VIRGINIA THROUGH THE CAROLINAS WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW
ENTERING NORTHERN ALABAMA AND GEORGIA. ACTIVITY HAS BLOSSOMED
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR MOVING IN
AT THE MID LEVELS ON THE HEELS OF THIS MORNINGS SHORTWAVE. DRY AIR
HAS HOWEVER LIMITED THE OVERALL VERTICAL EXTENT OF INDIVIDUAL
STORMS AS HAS LIMITED SURFACE HEATING DUE TO ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER.
HAVE CHOSEN FOR THESE REASONS TO CARRY PREDOMINANT SHRA WITH JUST
ISOLATED TSRA FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE ATLANTA METRO.

AXIS FOR SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRANSPORT SHIFTS SOUTH DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD BUT NOT AS MUCH AS PREVIOUS RUNS HAD SHOWN,. FOR
THIS REASON...CANNOT PULL POPS ENTIRELY DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD FOR ANY ZONES BUT WILL INSTEAD BACK OFF TO CHANCE POPS
THROUGH 12Z FOR SOUTHERN ZONES AND SLIGHT CHANCE TO THE NORTH.
LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME LOW CLOUDS FOR THE NORTHERN SECTIONS
IN THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT TONIGHT BUT FOG WILL BE LESS OF A
CONCERN GIVEN THE ELEVATED WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE.

ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL NOT BE AS PREVALENT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM...AREA WILL REMAIN IN OVERALL WEAK
UPPER TROUGH PATTERN WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES TO MOVE THROUGH.
FEEL THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP POPS ABOVE GUIDANCE THROUGH THE
PERIOD BUT MUCH LESS THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS.
THIS TRANSLATES INTO MID RANGE POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SHARP POPS GRADIENT TO JUST SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THE NORTHERN PORTIONS.

DEESE

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY HAVE DECREASED THE POPS EVER SO SLIGHTLY
SINCE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A LOWER CHANCE OF POPS. AS OF THE 12Z
MODELS...HYBRID WEDGE IS STILL BEING IDENTIFIED. LONG TERM MODELS
HAVE BEGUN TO COME IN AGREEMENT ABOUT THE PLACEMENT OF HIGH
PRESSURE LATER IN THE PERIOD. AS SUCH...HAVE ADJUSTED THE POPS
DOWN IN SOME OF THE LATER PERIODS. OTHERWISE...NO SIG CHANGES FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

ARG

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE...WINDS IN THE MID
LEVELS HAVE INCREASED ALLOWING FOR MUCH FASTER MOTION OF STORMS
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. DESPITE THIS...STILL AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME
TRAINING OF STORMS AND WITH SOME AREAS RECEIVING CLOSE TO 6 INCHES
IN THE LAST 24 HOURS...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A CONTINUED CONCERN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 745 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013/

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH MAIN INFLUENCING FEATURES
THROUGH THE LONG TERM. THERE LOOKS TO BE LITTLE TO NO UPPER LEVEL
FORCING FOR ASCENT THROUGH THE PERIOD AS BROAD UPPER RIDGE BECOMES
SITUATED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. FRONT LOOKS TO LINGER NEAR
SOUTHERN GA THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. HAVE GENERALLY FOCUSED CHANCE
POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER AND SLIGHT POPS ELSEWHERE AS CANNOT RULE
OUT ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT WITH SOME INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE.

AS 1025-MB SFC HIGH PUSHES EASTWARD AND SETTLES OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST...HYBRID CAD AND ASSOCIATED INVERTED RIDGING WILL
SETUP ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST. THIS SHOULD LIMIT
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN PORTIONS OF THE EAST AND FOCUS BETTER
CHANCES NEAR THE WEDGE PERIPHERY FROM THURSDAY INTO SUNDAY. LOW
LEVEL FLOW AND ANY OVERRUNNING MOISTURE DOES NOT APPEAR TO CATER TO
ISENTROPIC ENHANCEMENT OF PRECIP...THOUGH SOME OROGRAPHICALLY
ENHANCED DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH. ALL
CONSIDERED...HAVE FOCUSED CHANCE POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD NEAR THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND FAR NORTH WITH SLIGHT POPS ELSEWHERE.

SFC HIGH WEAKENS AND SLIDES FARTHER SOUTH BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND...WHILE SOME BETTER NORTHERN GULF AND SOUTH ATLANTIC
MOISTURE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. HAVE RAISED POPS SLIGHTLY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THOUGH DISCREPANCIES STILL EXIST AMONG THE MODEL SOLUTIONS.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S.

BAKER

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
MAIN AXIS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE SOUTHERN MOST
TERMINALS THUS FAR TODAY WITH A BREAK PRECIP WISE FOR THE ATL
TERMINALS. THIS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS ACTIVITY BUILDS
BACK IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER TODAY ALLOWING FOR PREDOMINANT
SHRA AND TEMPO TSRA ALONG WITH THE REDEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CIGS. AS
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PASSES THE AREA...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
FROM NW TO SE WRT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BUT CIGS SHOULD LOWER BACK
INTO THE MVFR RANGE AS PREDOMINANT AFTER 08Z. HAVE LEFT CSG AND
MCN DRY FOR NOW ON WEDNESDAY BUT LATER FORECASTS MAY REQUIRE
PROB30 FOR TSRA DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH MOISTURE AXIS PROGRESSES.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TSRA DURATION AND CIGS.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          68  85  66  87 /  50  20  20  20
ATLANTA         68  84  70  86 /  50  20  20  20
BLAIRSVILLE     60  82  60  81 /  30  20  20  20
CARTERSVILLE    65  86  65  88 /  30  20  20  20
COLUMBUS        72  88  72  89 /  90  50  30  30
GAINESVILLE     67  82  67  84 /  40  20  20  20
MACON           70  85  68  88 / 100  50  30  30
ROME            66  86  65  89 /  30  20  20  20
PEACHTREE CITY  69  84  65  87 /  60  20  20  20
VIDALIA         73  86  70  89 /  90  50  50  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....ARG
AVIATION...DEESE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1213 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-191615-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
1213 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHES EASTWARD AND ENHANCES DEVELOPMENT IN A
MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE GREATEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

WHILE PORTIONS OF THE AREA HAVE RECENTLY RECEIVED SEVERAL INCHES
OF RAIN...THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH ANY DEVELOPMENT WILL BE HEAVY RAIN
AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...ALONG WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG
ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS...A SEVERE WIND GUST
REMAINS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. ALSO...THOSE ESPECIALLY IN
LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS SHOULD REMAIN CAUTIOUS FOR THE POTENTIAL
OF QUICK PONDING OF WATER WITH STRONGER STORMS OR TRAINING OF
MULTIPLE CELLS OVER THE SAME AREA. TREES MAY ALSO BE MORE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO FALL IN AREAS WITH MOIST AND LOOSENED SOIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

A WEAK FRONT TRAILING BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE LOOKS
TO STALL NEAR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF CENTRAL GEORGIA FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE GREATER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
THE AREA...THOUGH ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD
MAINTAIN AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOOKS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST FOR
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH MAY SERVE TO LIMIT
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EAST AND POSSIBLY
FOCUS DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE PERIPHERY TOWARD THE SOUTH AND FAR
WEST. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR TERRAIN INDUCED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS FOR FAR NORTH GEORGIA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER...FLOODING
AND DAMAGE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
616 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

GAZ093-095-105-182245-
616 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING IN MACON...
DOOLY AND HOUSTON COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM EDT...

AT 612 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER MONTEZUMA...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

LIGHTNING DETECTION SYSTEMS INDICATE NUMEROUS CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS MACON...DOOLY AND HOUSTON COUNTIES...
INCLUDING AREAS AROUND CLEARVIEW...WINCHESTER...WHITEWATER STATE
PARK...FOUNTAINVILLE...BARTLETT...MONTEZUMA...OGLETHORPE...FIVE
POINTS...DOOLING...HENDERSON...MOSS OAK...UNADILLA...GROVE PARK...
CLINCHFIELD AND GROVANIA. RESIDENTS IN THIS AREA SHOULD STAY INDOORS.
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES AND TELEPHONES SHOULD NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN
EMERGENCY.

&&

LAT...LON 3221 8413 3223 8414 3223 8417 3244 8414
      3244 8349 3241 8348 3239 8351 3240 8352
      3230 8361 3225 8360 3225 8362 3223 8360
      3220 8361
TIME...MOT...LOC 2217Z 270DEG 24KT 3232 8394

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
630 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LEXINGTON               33.87N 83.11W
06/18/2013                   OGLETHORPE         GA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN ALL ACROSS THE COUNTY.

&&

TDP

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