Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
258 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO PROGG A WET 24 TO 36 HOURS FOR THE CWA. A VERY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ADDED TO DAYTIME HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON IS CAUSING CONVECTION TO BECOME NUMEROUS ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING...BUT AS THE UPPER
SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE
CWA...EXPECT CONVECTION TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHWEST GA AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. WILL GO
WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS TUESDAY. AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY
TUESDAY NIGHT...THE PRECIP WILL DIMINISH FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPS
WILL BE TRICKY TUESDAY. THE NAM IS GOING FOR NO SUNSHINE AND IS
THEREFORE MUCH COOLER THAN THE GFS. WILL GO WITH A COMPROMISE AS
ANY SUNSHINE WILL BOOST TEMPS.

LATEST PROGS INDICATE THAT HIGH K-VALUES OF 40+ WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
THE TROUGH PASSES. WE WILL ALSO HAVE PW OF 1.8 TO 2.2 INCHES.
ALTHOUGH CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM ON TUESDAY...FEEL
THE BIGGEST THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAIN WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS. AT
THIS POINT THE PRECIP DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL BE WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH FOR A FLOOD WATCH...HOWEVER LOCALIZED FLOODING...MAINLY OF
DRAINAGE DITCHES AND LOW LYING AREAS ON ROADS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

17

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD GIVEN THE GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHORT TERM MODELS
THROUGH MID WEEK. GFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE OF AN OUTLIER WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW FEATURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
TRACKING IT OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. MODEL
CONSENSUS SHOWS A WEAKER SURFACE FEATURE...TRACKING INTO THE
CAROLINAS AND OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS
INTO SOUTH GEORGIA. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS AND WX GRIDS ACCORDINGLY TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS TRENDS.

BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...SURFACE HIGH POSITIONED OVER THE
CAROLINAS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN PSEUDO-CAD EVENT...LIMITING
INSTABILITY TO THE PERIPHERY. OVERALL...GIVEN MODEL UNCERTAINTY WITH
THE LATE WEEK SETUP...HAVE OPTED TO MAKE VERY MINOR CHANGES...IF
ANY...TO THE POP AND WX GRIDS.

THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW...

31

/ISSUED AT 513 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013/
GFS SOLUTION STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH ECMWF WITH
EXTENT OF ENHANCED MOISTURE FIELD AND MAIN INFLUENCING UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO BE
WITH AN UPPER SHORTWAVE AND WEAK BOUNDARY PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM. AS FRONT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTHWARD...IT
WILL FOCUS THE GREATER CHANCE POPS FOR DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL GEORGIA THROUGH MIDWEEK. BY THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...A
PARENT 1020-1024 MB SFC HIGH SLIDING EAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC LOOKS
TO RESULT IN HYBRID CAD FOR THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD SERVE TO
LIMIT INSTABILITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EAST AND POTENTIALLY FOCUS
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE PERIPHERY. GUIDANCE
HAS DISCREPANCIES ON THE AMOUNT OF OVERRUNNING MOISTURE AND THERE
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH ISENTROPIC LIFT FORECAST AT THE MOMENT.
THERE IS STILL DECENT UNCERTAINTY WITH THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP COVERAGE
DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE WEDGE SO FUTURE RUNS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED FOR ANY INCREASED SIGNALS. ALL CONSIDERED...HAVE SLIGHT TO
LOW END CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AND TEMPS
LOOK TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

BAKER

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS...THEN THERE SHOULD BE A LULL. THE NEXT SHORT
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WILL APPROACH GA FROM THE WEST
LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY INCREASING THE CONVECTION AGAIN. WINDS WILL
REMAIN SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE FORECAST. VFR CIGS TODAY...EXCEPT
POSSIBLY DROPPING TO MVFR IN TSRA. CIGS WILL DROP TO MVFR OVER MOST
OF THE AREA AFTER 06Z...THEN LIFT TO VFR TOWARD 18Z TUE.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          70  82  69  87 /  80  90  40  20
ATLANTA         70  83  69  85 /  90  90  30  20
BLAIRSVILLE     67  77  63  81 /  90  90  30  20
CARTERSVILLE    70  81  67  86 /  90  90  30  20
COLUMBUS        75  89  73  89 /  70  70  60  40
GAINESVILLE     69  80  67  83 /  90  90  30  20
MACON           72  89  72  89 /  60  70  60  40
ROME            70  80  67  87 /  90  90  30  20
PEACHTREE CITY  70  84  68  86 /  90  90  40  30
VIDALIA         71  92  73  88 /  60  50  60  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...17

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
602 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-181015-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
602 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA.
SOME AREAS HAVE EXPERIENCED HEAVY RAINFALL OF SEVERAL INCHES FROM
PREVIOUS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING STORMS...THEREFORE ANY
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT AND TRAINING OF STORMS WILL POSE A THREAT
FOR FLASH FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND URBAN AREAS. BESIDES HEAVY
RAINFALL...OTHER MAIN THREATS WITH ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
INCLUDE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK AS UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT. THE GREATEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH ANY DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN.

A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
GEORGIA INTO MIDWEEK...HELPING TO AID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
BY THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST...WHICH MAY SERVE TO LIMIT
INSTABILITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EAST AND POTENTIALLY FOCUS
DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE PERIPHERY TOWARD THE SOUTH AND WEST PORTIONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
155 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

GAZ034-045-171830-
155 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING IN DEKALB AND
GWINNETT COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM EDT...

AT 152 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER TUCKER...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

LIGHTNING DETECTION SYSTEMS INDICATE NUMEROUS CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS DEKALB AND GWINNETT COUNTIES...INCLUDING
AREAS AROUND LA VISTA...EAST LAKE...BROOKHAVEN...PINE LAKE...
SCOTTDALE...AVONDALE ESTATES...DECATUR...CLARKSTON...DRUID HILLS...
DORAVILLE...CHAMBLEE...MECHANICSVILLE...TUCKER...STONE MOUNTAIN AND
NORCROSS. RESIDENTS IN THIS AREA SHOULD STAY INDOORS. ELECTRICAL
APPLIANCES AND TELEPHONES SHOULD NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

&&

LAT...LON 3385 8390 3380 8397 3373 8431 3384 8436
      3392 8435 3405 8398
TIME...MOT...LOC 1755Z 251DEG 14KT 3385 8424

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
213 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

GAZ086-171845-
213 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREQUENT LIGHTNING IN EMANUEL
COUNTY UNTIL 245 PM EDT...

AT 211 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER LEXSY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

LIGHTNING DETECTION SYSTEMS INDICATE NUMEROUS CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS EMANUEL COUNTY...INCLUDING AREAS AROUND
LEXSY...OAK PARK...NUNEZ...STILLMORE...GEORGE L SMITH STATE PARK...
TWIN CITY AND GARFIELD. RESIDENTS IN THIS AREA SHOULD STAY INDOORS.
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES AND TELEPHONES SHOULD NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN
EMERGENCY.

&&

LAT...LON 3254 8203 3255 8208 3251 8215 3248 8217
      3243 8218 3239 8221 3235 8233 3251 8243
      3269 8209 3266 8208 3261 8200
TIME...MOT...LOC 1814Z 243DEG 15KT 3248 8228

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
311 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

GAZ068>070-171945-
311 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING IN PIKE...
LAMAR AND UPSON COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM EDT...

AT 307 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER ATWATER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

LIGHTNING DETECTION SYSTEMS INDICATE NUMEROUS CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS PIKE...LAMAR AND UPSON COUNTIES...INCLUDING
AREAS AROUND HANNAHS MILL...ATWATER...SUNNYSIDE...LIFSEY SPRINGS...
MEANSVILLE...THE ROCK...ZEBULON...PIEDMONT...ALDORA...LIBERTY HILL...
REDBONE...JOHNSTONVILLE...GOGGINS...MILNER AND BARNESVILLE. RESIDENTS
IN THIS AREA SHOULD STAY INDOORS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES AND
TELEPHONES SHOULD NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

&&

LAT...LON 3318 8420 3318 8413 3319 8412 3305 8404
      3298 8404 3287 8441 3304 8450
TIME...MOT...LOC 1911Z 237DEG 17KT 3300 8435

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
313 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

GAZ031-171945-
313 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING IN PAULDING
COUNTY UNTIL 345 PM EDT...

AT 307 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF YORKVILLE...MOVING EAST AT
15 MPH.

LIGHTNING DETECTION SYSTEMS INDICATE NUMEROUS CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS PAULDING COUNTY...INCLUDING AREAS AROUND
YORKVILLE...BURNT HICKORY RIDGE...DALLAS...NEW HOPE...HIRAM AND CROSS
ROADS. RESIDENTS IN THIS AREA SHOULD STAY INDOORS. ELECTRICAL
APPLIANCES AND TELEPHONES SHOULD NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

&&

LAT...LON 3395 8501 3395 8499 3395 8498 3396 8497
      3407 8493 3408 8474 3395 8474 3394 8472
      3385 8473 3388 8502
TIME...MOT...LOC 1913Z 271DEG 12KT 3397 8490