Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
328 PM EDT THU JUN 13 2013

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW DOMINATES THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
MODERATE SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY SWEEPING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...BRUSHING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING. UNSEASONABLY SHARP FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL SWEEP ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA OVERNIGHT. CLEAR
SKIES HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING THE ATMOSPHERE TO
BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE. BEST LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
REMAIN NORTH OF THE STATE...BUT ARE SUFFICIENT ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA
FOR A HIGH-END SLIGHT RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WITH A
LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. 12Z FFC SOUNDING...MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THE SPECIAL 18Z FFC SOUNDING ARE ALL
SHOWING THE LIMITING FACTOR ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA WILL
LIKELY BE A FAIRLY DRY VERTICAL MOISTURE PROFILE. THIS WOULD NOT
SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY COMPLETELY ACROSS THE AREA BUT WILL
LIKELY KEEP THE COVERAGE LIMITED TO THE CURRENT TREND OF A
RELATIVELY NARROW BAND WITH MORE SCATTERED COVERAGE ALONG THE LINE.
THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL REMAINS HIGH
WITH THIS PROFILE.

18Z SOUNDING IS AMAZINGLY SIMILAR TO THE 18Z FORECAST SOUNDING FROM
THE 12Z GFS. SHOWS ONLY 1.3 INCHES PW AND USING THE MIXED LAYER
YIELDS AROUND 1700 J/KG CAPE. ALSO SHOWS A 2.5-3.5 DEGREE CAP AROUND
THE LCL WITH AROUND 125 J/KG CIN TO OVERCOME BEFORE REACHING THE
LFC. THIS MIGHT BE HARD TO ACCOMPLISH WITH SURFACE HEATING ALONE...
HOWEVER ADDED MECHANICAL LIFT JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH THE
CURRENT LINE OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP THE
NARROW LINE OF CONVECTION ACTIVE.

DRIER...MILDER AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY SUN UP
FRIDAY ENDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS WITH LOWS SATURDAY MORNING
NOTICEABLY BELOW NORMAL.

20

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VERY LITTLE CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST TODAY AS MAIN CONCERN
HAS BEEN WITH THE NEAR-TERM /SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THIS
EVENING/. DID LOWER MAX TEMPS FOR SATURDAY JUST A TAD AND
GENERALLY REFRESHED THE 4TH-5TH PERIODS WITH NEW GUIDANCE FOR
WINDS AND DEWPOINTS...BUT OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. ONE
CONCERN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WOULD BE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER WHICH
MAY LEAD TO COOLER HIGHS THAN ARE CURRENTLY ADVERTISED...BUT THIS
WILL BE REEVALUATED OVER THE NEXT FEW FORECASTS.

TDP

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
/ISSUED 426 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013/
MAINLY QUITE DRY WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. THE UPPER HIGH FLATTENS SUNDAY WITH THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES MOVING INTO N GA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A SHORT WAVE TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH
SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY RETURN MONDAY...MOST SO FOR N GA...GIVING POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE IN THE CARDS ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHORT WAVES TO ENHANCE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES N GA. THE
FRONT LOOKS TO STALL ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
CONTINUING SOME CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THIS FORECAST
PERIOD OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AREAS
OF MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 06Z AND 14Z...HOWEVER I DO
NOT HAVE ANY MVFR PERIODS AT THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL REMAIN
WESTERLY BETWEEN 08-14KT WITH GUSTS 18-24KT THROUGH 00Z. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO 4-8KT AND BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY BY 06Z. LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
BETWEEN 20Z AND 08Z...IMPACTING THE ATLANTA METRO AREA AND KAHN TAF
SITES BETWEEN 21Z AND 01Z AND THE KCSG AND KMCN TAF SITES BETWEEN
23Z AND 03Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH ALL ELEMENTS...EXCEPT MEDIUM FOR COVERAGE OF CONVECTION.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          67  86  63  89 /  60   5   0   0
ATLANTA         69  85  65  87 /  60   5   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     61  82  59  82 /  10   5   0   5
CARTERSVILLE    65  85  60  88 /  30   5   0   5
COLUMBUS        72  90  67  90 /  60   5   0   0
GAINESVILLE     67  84  65  85 /  30   5   0   0
MACON           70  90  64  90 /  60   5   0   0
ROME            65  86  60  88 /  20   5   0   5
PEACHTREE CITY  66  86  61  88 /  60   5   0   0
VIDALIA         74  90  67  92 /  60  10   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BANKS...BARTOW...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...DADE...DAWSON...FANNIN...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...
GORDON...HALL...JACKSON...LUMPKIN...MADISON...MURRAY...PICKENS...
TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...WHITE...WHITFIELD.

&&

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....TDP
AVIATION...20

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1230 PM EDT THU JUN 13 2013

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-141000-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
1230 PM EDT THU JUN 13 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
   THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...
DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH...LARGE HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN.

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE SUPPORTED BY AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WILL ENCOUNTER AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND PROGRESS SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY THAT WIDESPREAD
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY RETURN TO THE AREA ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED STARTING AT 200 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON. EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD MONITOR THE FORECAST AND
PROGRESSION OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER.

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