Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
305 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2013

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE STARTS OFF IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH WIDE
UPPER TROUGH DOMINATING THE AREA...AND OF COURSE THE LOW IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO. THIS LOW IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND PHASE WITH THE
MAIN UPPER TROUGH AS A SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATTER
SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE SOUTHEAST. AS WE MOVE THROUGH TODAY INTO
TOMORROW...THE NAM IS A LITTLE SLOWER AND SHARPER WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH...WHICH ALLOWS THE GULF LOW TO LIFT NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWEST
AND INTENSIFY...MAKING LANDFALL IN THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
LATE ON THURSDAY. THIS SOLUTION HOWEVER IS NOT AT ALL SUPPORTED BY
THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS...AND THE NAM IS THUS NOT BEING CONSIDERED
FOR THIS PACKAGE ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. THE PROBLEM IS THAT
MANY HI-RES MODELS...INCLUDING OUR LOCAL WRF AND THE SREF...USE NAM
MEMBERS AND THUS ALSO MUST BE THROWN OUT. THE GFS IS ON THE FAST
SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE...ZIPPING THE GULF LOW NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND INTENSIFYING IT NEAR CHARLESTON
SOUTH CAROLINA BY 06Z FRIDAY /AT THE SAME TIME THAT THE NAM IS STILL
PUSHING THE SYSTEM ONSHORE NEAR FORT WALTON BEACH FLORIDA/. SO...HAD
TO GO WITH MAINLY THE ECMWF WITH SOME GFS MIXED IN. DID INCORPORATE
HRRR AND LOCAL WRF REFLECTIVITY FIELDS INTO THE POP/WX GRIDS FOR
TONIGHT AS THESE SEEM TO BE CAPTURING ONGOING CONVECTION VERY
WELL...BUT AS MENTIONED ABOVE BEYOND 06Z TONIGHT HAD TO REMOVE LOCAL
WRF FROM CONSIDERATION.

SO...ALL THAT SAID...LOOKS LIKE THE GULF LOW WILL BE LIFTING
NORTHEAST AND BRINGING WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN TO PORTIONS OF NORTH
FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. IN THE MEANTIME...CONVECTION AHEAD OF
TE APPROACHING FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. HAVE PRETTY HIGH POPS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...AND DEPENDING ON HOW FAR
INTO THE STATE THE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION GETS TONIGHT...MAY HAVE TO
INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE METRO AREA BUT FOR NOW KEPT THE METRO AT
HIGH CHANCE POPS. SBCAPES ACROSS THE AREA HAVE INCREASED TO BETWEEN
1000-2000 J/KG...THE ONLY REASON THEY ARE NOT HIGHER IS THAT CLOUDS
HAVE KEPT TEMPS DOWN THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON BUT WITH A
SCATTERING TREND IN CLOUD COVER...INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE. MODIFIED 12Z KFFC SOUNDING HAD AROUND 2500 J/KG FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. THAT SAID...AND WITH THE SUPPORT OF THE FRONT...CANNOT
RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM ESPECIALLY IN
NORTHWEST GEORGIA. HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING REMAIN THREATS AS WELL.

FOR THURSDAY...AS THE TWO MAIN FEATURES INTERACT /APPROACHING
FRONT AND GULF LOW/...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL
AREA-WIDE. QPF VALUES REMAIN BELOW 2 INCHES FOR THE DURATION OF
THE EVENT SO AT THIS TIME AM NOT CONSIDERING ANY FLOOD WATCH
PRODUCTS... THOUGH OF COURSE AS NEW GUIDANCE COMES IN THIS WILL
HAVE TO BE REEVALUATED /ESPECIALLY IF THE NAM EVER CATCHES UP/. AS
FAR AS SEVERE POTENTIAL...IT WILL REALLY DEPEND ON THE EVENTUAL
TRACK OF THE LOW BUT THE SITUATION FOR TOMORROW DOES NOT LOOK VERY
IMPRESSIVE EXCEPT AGAIN IN NORTHWEST GEORGIA WHERE SOME CLEARING
MAY OCCUR EARLIER IN THE DAY TO ALLOW INSTABILITY TO RISE. EVEN
THEN...ONLY ISOLATED SEVERE AT BEST AT LEAST FOR NOW. AS WITH THIS
EVENING...THE ENTIRE AREA IS IN A GENERAL THUNDER CATEGORY ON SPC
DAY2 OUTLOOK.

WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER THURSDAY SHOULD KEEP TEMPS TONIGHT ON THE
WARM SIDE OF SEASONAL NORMALS...AND HIGH TEMPS TOMORROW ON THE COOL
SIDE. IT WILL BE HUMID ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL GEORGIA...BUT WITH THE
FRONT MOVING IN FOR THE EXTENDED THE TREND WILL BE TOWARD MORE
PLEASANT CONDITIONS.

TDP

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY JUST TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM WITH SIGNIFICANT MODEL
DIFFERENCES CONTINUING EARLY ON. HEAVY RAIN STILL A CONCERN BUT
HIGHLY DEPENDANT ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE AN ACTIVE ONE INITIALLY AS GULF LOW GETS
CAUGHT UP IN SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES LATE THURSDAY. HYBRID TYPE
SYSTEM THEN LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND INTO THE ATLANTIC
WITH FORECAST MUCH DEPENDENT ON FINER DETAILS THAT ARE DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT THIS FAR OUT. GFS DEVELOPS A SECONDARY LOW OFF THE COAST
WHILE LEAVING GENERAL TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF. THE ECMWF
KEEPS SYSTEM MORE IN TACT BUT PRIOR 12Z RUN SHOWS SMALLER SCALE LOW
DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH GEORGIA WHICH WOULD BRING NE CONVERGENT FLOW
AND SUSTAINED HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE AREA. WILL AWAIT 00Z EURO RUN
BEFORE MAKING FINAL DECISIONS BUT PLAN TO SHOW INITIAL PUSH OF
LIKELY POPS FROM THE SOUTHEAST THU NIGHT AND THEN A SECONDARY ZONE
OF LIKELY POPS COMING IN FRIDAY WITH STRONG SOUTHERNS STREAM
SHORTWAVE. ALTHOUGH PLACEMENT AND DURATION OF HEAVY RAINFALL AXIS IS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT...DID INCREASE QPF OVER HPC VALUES
GIVEN LIKELY TROPICAL NATURE OF AIRMASS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

THEREAFTER...AREA WILL REMAIN IN OVERALL EAST COAST TROUGH PATTERN
BUT MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE LIMITED FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS. MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOOKS TO
BUILD IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...YIELDING WARMING AFTERNOON TEMPS
AND A NORTHWEST FLOW THUNDERSTORM REGIME.

DEESE

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
CONVECTION FIRING ACROSS THE AREA AT TAF TIME...WITH HI-RES MODEL
GUIDANCE BRINGING IN ADDITIONAL ROUNDS THROUGH THE EVENING AND
AGAIN TOMORROW. BEST COMPROMISE IS TO START WITH TEMPO TSRA
EVERYWHERE THIS AFTERNOON WITH VCSH COVERING A LONGER WINDOW...
WITH PREVAILING SHRA AND THEN TSRA ON THURSDAY. MVFR TO LOW VFR
CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DROP AFTER 06Z TO IFR JUST ABOUT
EVERYWHERE EXCEPT POSSIBLY CSG...WITH A LIFTING TREND STARTING
BETWEEN 14-15Z THURSDAY. ESE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD GRADUALLY
SHIFTING MORE SE LATE.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON OCCURRENCE OF CONVECTION OFF AND ON THROUGH THE
PERIOD...LOW ON TIMING OF ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO ATL.
HIGH ON WINDS.
MEDIUM ON CIG HEIGHTS AND TIMING.

TDP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          68  79  67  82 /  50  90  70  70
ATLANTA         70  79  67  81 /  50  90  60  60
BLAIRSVILLE     66  75  64  77 /  50  80  70  70
CARTERSVILLE    69  80  67  81 /  60  80  70  70
COLUMBUS        72  83  70  87 /  70  80  60  60
GAINESVILLE     68  77  65  80 /  50  90  70  70
MACON           70  81  68  86 /  50  90  60  60
ROME            70  80  68  82 /  50  80  70  70
PEACHTREE CITY  69  79  68  82 /  50  80  60  60
VIDALIA         70  82  69  87 /  70  90  70  70

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...TDP
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...TDP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
955 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2013

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-061000-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
955 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY OVER NORTH
   AND CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...
STRONG GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

DISCUSSION...
ENHANCED MOISTURE LOCATED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS AND MODERATE INSTABILITY COULD ALLOW
A FEW STORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

...THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...
HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND GUSTY WINDS.

DISCUSSION...
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY
WITH THE APPROACH OF A TROPICAL LOW LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE ULTIMATE TRACK OF THE
TROPICAL LOW...BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MOVES THE LOW ACROSS
CENTRAL OR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA LATE THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY. AS A
RESULT OF THIS LOW AND ITS INTERACTION WITH AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGH FRIDAY. A FEW STORMS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MAY
BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AS A RESULT OF THE
INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE AND ADDITIONAL FORCING FROM THE
FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
250 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2013

GAZ011-019-051930-
250 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS IN CHATTOOGA AND FLOYD COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM EDT...

AT 245 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM CLOUDLAND TO COOSA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15
MPH. DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3459 8510 3454 8508 3454 8509 3447 8509
      3446 8511 3443 8509 3442 8511 3440 8507
      3416 8540 3442 8549 3459 8551
TIME...MOT...LOC 1849Z 229DEG 15KT 3457 8541 3446 8539
          3431 8534

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
309 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2013

GAZ002>004-052000-
309 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND STRONG
WINDS IN WHITFIELD...WALKER AND CATOOSA COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM EDT...

AT 304 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM LAKEVIEW TO 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
LAFAYETTE...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. HEAVY DOWNPOURS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED.

&&

LAT...LON 3491 8488 3466 8498 3460 8544 3477 8542
      3499 8535 3499 8487
TIME...MOT...LOC 1908Z 252DEG 20KT 3501 8528 3480 8531
          3465 8534