Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
207 PM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013

.PREV DISCUSSION...

UPDATE...
/ISSUED 1025 AM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013/
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA THIS MORNING SO MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST HAS BEEN TO
REDUCE POPS FOR THE MORNING. BY EARLY AFTERNOON THOUGH...THE HRRR
INCREASES COVERAGE GREATLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WESTERN PART OF
THE CWA AND THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE FORECAST. SOME INDICATION IN
THE MODELS SUCH AS THE GFS AND ECMWF THAT THE BETTER COVERAGE WILL
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AND MAY NEED TO ADJUST OUR POPS UPWARD
OVERNIGHT IN FUTURE UPDATES.

PORTIONS OF FANNIN AND GILMER COUNTY HAVE ALREADY SEEN AROUND 4
INCHES OF RAIN DURING THIS EVENT SO FAR. ALTHOUGH THEY HAVE
RECEIVED A REPRIEVE FROM THE HEAVY RAIN...WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS AREA CLOSELY FOR POTENTIAL ISOLATED FLOODING AS
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

11

PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
/ISSUED 353 AM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013/
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE TRENDING A BIT SLOWER WITH THE COLD
FRONTAL PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORT
WAVE CURRENTLY SWEEPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS HAS
RESULTED IN SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA EARLY THIS MORNING.
INSTABILITY IS VERY LIMITED INITIALLY SO I DO NOT EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY. BETTER CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH FROM THE WEST AFTER SUN-UP AS THE REMAINS
OF THE LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
APPROACH AND INSTABILITY INCREASES. CAPE/LI/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MODERATE AT BEST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING SO WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL NOT
EXPECTED...HOWEVER A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS...SMALL
HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE STILL LIKELY.

THE COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO CLEAR NORTH GEORGIA UNTIL SOMETIME
DURING THE DAY MONDAY SO I HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO
DIMINISH QUICKLY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BUT MODELS DO INDICATE THAT
MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ONCE AGAIN MONDAY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT REMAINS FAIRLY MODEST THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD
BUT WEAK WAVES IN THE UPPER FLOW...MODERATE LOW-LEVEL FORCING ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND THE SLOW NATURE OF THE SYSTEM WILL
RESULT IN RAINFALL TOTALS AVERAGING AROUND AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A
HALF ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA WITH AVERAGES BETWEEN 3/4 OF AN INCH AND
AN INCH ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD FLOODING ISSUES.

20

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
/ISSUED 353 AM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013/
MODELS SHOW THE COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO SOUTH GA MONDAY NIGHT...
WHERE IT MEANDERS... THEN DRIFTS BACK NORTH SLIGHTLY BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL WARRANT HOLDING ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS
SPREAD BACK ACROSS NORTH GA BY WEDNESDAY AS AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW
BEGINS TO ADVECT DEEP ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK OVER THE AREA WHILE A
SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES BEGIN TO CARVE A BROAD LONG WAVE
TROUGH THAT STRETCHES DOWN THE MS VALLEY REGION BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY
AND PROVIDES THE SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT
THE SAME TIME... THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW AN EARLY SEASON TROPICAL
SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE EASTERN GULF ON THURSDAY... ACROSS CENTRAL
FL AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY...THEN UP THE EAST
COAST ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OF CANADA HELPS
HOLD THE SYSTEM OFF SHORE. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ON FRIDAY... A
CONTINUED MOIST EASTERLY FLOW AND UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT
DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA
AGAIN ON FRIDAY. AS THE TROPICAL SYSTEM PUSHES OFF TO THE NE ON
SATURDAY... MODELS SHOW A COLD FRONT AND DRIER AIR SPREADING SOUTH
IN ITS WAKE. DUE TO MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND TRACK... WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW A CHANCE OF CONVECTION ON SATURDAY FOR NOW AND
MONITOR CHANGES IN THE MODEL RUNS CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

39

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP AROUND THE TERMINALS AND FOR NOW
IS ORIENTED IN TWO LINES. EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS EVENING BUT THEN CHANCES WILL DECREASE. HAVE KEPT SHRA IN THE
TAFS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE
CHANCE OF MORE TSRA. COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF LOWER
CIGS IN THE TSRA BUT SO SHORT LIVED THAT HAVENT INCLUDED IT IN
THE TAF YET EXCEPT FOR MINOR REDUCTION IN VSBY. CIGS ARE EXPECTED
TO LOWER OVERNIGHT INTO THE IFR TO LOW MVFR RANGE.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF CONVECTION...VSBYS AND CIGS. HIGH
CONFIDENCE ON WIND DIRECTION...BUT MEDIUM ON SPEEDS DUE TO
POSSIBLE GUSTS IN TSRA.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          83  68  84  64 /  70  80  40  30
ATLANTA         83  69  84  66 /  80  80  40  10
BLAIRSVILLE     79  64  80  61 /  80  80  40  10
CARTERSVILLE    82  66  84  61 /  80  80  40  10
COLUMBUS        85  71  86  69 /  70  80  50  30
GAINESVILLE     82  68  83  65 /  80  80  40  20
MACON           86  69  85  67 /  60  60  50  40
ROME            82  67  83  60 /  80  80  30  10
PEACHTREE CITY  83  67  84  61 /  80  80  40  20
VIDALIA         88  72  86  69 /  50  60  60  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...11

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
238 PM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-031845-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
238 PM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL.

DISCUSSION...

A STORM SYSTEM WILL PUSH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND DRAG A COLD FRONT
INTO NORTH GEORGIA TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MODERATE UPPER LEVEL FORCING
AND AFTERNOON INSTABILITY COULD ALLOW A FEW STORMS TO BECOME
SEVERE ACROSS NORTH AND PARTS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA DURING DAYTIME
HEATING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

...ISOLATED STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY...

A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA ON MONDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING DAYTIME HEATING. FRONTAL FORCING AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY COULD ALLOW A FEW STORMS TO BECOME STRONG
MONDAY AFTERNOON... PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS... SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN.

THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL DECREASE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO SOUTH GEORGIA ALTHOUGH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL
GEORGIA. A BETTER CHANCE OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA FOR
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO SUBMIT STORM REPORTS THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
155 PM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013

GAZ042-021830-
155 PM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 40 MPH WINDS IN CARROLL COUNTY
UNTIL 230 PM EDT...

AT 153 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER BOWDON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH ARE LIKELY AS THIS STORM MOVES ACROSS CARROLL
COUNTY THROUGH 230 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM
INCLUDE BLACKJACK MOUNTAIN...TYUS...BOWDON...ROOPVILLE...MOUNT
ZION...JOHN TANNER STATE PARK...LOWELL...CARROLLTON...CLEM AND
ABILENE.

&&

LAT...LON 3373 8496 3347 8494 3343 8529 3358 8533
      3359 8533
TIME...MOT...LOC 1755Z 247DEG 18KT 3355 8522

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
258 PM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013

GAZ008-015-016-023-021930-
258 PM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NICKEL SIZED HAIL...50 MPH
WINDS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING IN WHITE...UNION...LUMPKIN AND HALL COUNTIES
UNTIL 330 PM EDT...

AT 254 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER CLEVELAND...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM INCLUDE WHITLEY GAP
SHELTER...QUALATCHEE LAKE...CAMP COLEMAN LAKE...TURNERS
CORNER...SMITHGALL WOODS CONSERVATION AREA...CLEVELAND...UNICOI
STATE PARK...ROBERTSTOWN...HELEN...MOSSY CREEK...ANNA RUBY
FALLS...LEAF AND SAUTEE. RESIDENTS IN THIS AREA SHOULD STAY INDOORS.

&&

LAT...LON 3477 8363 3475 8362 3468 8363 3465 8365
      3463 8363 3460 8364 3456 8361 3454 8361
      3451 8366 3451 8386 3471 8394 3479 8366
TIME...MOT...LOC 1857Z 265DEG 21KT 3460 8378

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>