Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
350 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AFTERNOON CONVECTION EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND PERSIST
INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED AS ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE FOCUSES DEVELOPMENT. MODELS A
LITTLE INCONSISTENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT AND/OR PROGRESSION OF THE
ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION...BUT WITH INCREASING
INSTABILITIES...DIURNAL HEATING...AND INCREASING SHEAR ACROSS THE
AREA...FEEL THERE IS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELY
POPS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA. HAVE CONTINUED MENTION OF
POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS...ACCOMPANIED WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL...IN THE GRIDS THROUGH 02Z TONIGHT ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA...GENERALLY NORTH OF THE ATL METRO AREA. HAVE ALSO
QUICKLY TAPERED OFF EVENING AND OVERNIGHT POPS INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH GENERALLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE DAY THURSDAY AS SHORT WAVE PUSHES INTO THE CAROLINAS.

AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THE SEVERE THREAT IS PRIMARILY CONFINED TO
NORTH GEORGIA...THOUGH STRONG STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA. THE PRIMARY CONCERNS IN SEVERE ACTIVITY WILL BE GUSTY WINDS
TO 60 MPH OR HIGHER...1 INCH HAIL OR HIGHER...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS.

PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO FRIDAY...WITH
WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
AND EASTERN GEORGIA.

FOR THE TEMPERATURES..HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH A GUIDANCE BLEND.
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S...AND
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE DIMINISHING CONVECTION AND CLOUDS OUT
OF THE AREA...THIS COULD IMPACT MORNING LOWS BY A FEW DEGREES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK IN THE LOW TO MID 80S THURSDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE COOLING BY FRIDAY.

31

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A MUCH
DRIER AIRMASS MOVES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY WITH DRY NW FLOW ALOFT
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS DURING
THE DAY. GRADIENT WINDS WILL INCREASE GETTING CLOSE TO WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA(20 MPH SUSTAINED) FOR SOME AREAS. DRY CONDITIONS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND EVEN WITH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE NW FLOW ALOFT N OF THE AREA IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE WITH INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES NORTH
OF THE STATE...BUT IT SHOULD STAY DRY ACROSS GA. LOOKS LIKE THE
BETTER MOISTURE FINALLY MOVES IN ACROSS THE AREA BY THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK SO WILL SLOWLY INCREASE CHANCES OF POPS MON THROUGH DAY
7. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RUNNING WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT SATURDAY ND SUNDAY MORNING LOWS ARE
RUNNING 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE STATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE GENERALLY TEMPO TS FOR THE ATL
AREA AND AHN TAF SITES TO ACCOUNT FOR TS IN THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND PREVAILING TS AS MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION MOVES
IN 00-02Z. CSG AND MCN AREAS LOOK TO BE PRIMARILY IMPACTED THIS
EVENING WITH THE MAIN CONVECTION LINE. OVERALL...ANTICIPATING VFR
CONDITIONS...WITH SOME RESTRICTED VSBYS IN THE TS. AHN COULD SEE
SCT-BKN IFR 08-13Z WITH LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE AREA. WINDS WILL
BE GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON...SWITCHING TO THE WEST
OR NORTHWEST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT. VRB GUSTY WINDS
EXPECTED IN CONVECTION TODAY. GUSTY NW WINDS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...GENERALLY G18-24KT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CONVECTION TIMING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          65  85  59  79 /  60  20   5   0
ATLANTA         66  83  59  76 /  60  10   5   0
BLAIRSVILLE     61  78  54  71 /  60  20  10   0
CARTERSVILLE    63  83  57  76 /  60  10   5   0
COLUMBUS        68  89  63  82 /  60  10   5   0
GAINESVILLE     64  82  57  75 /  60  10   5   0
MACON           65  89  60  83 /  60  20   5   0
ROME            63  84  57  77 /  50  10   5   0
PEACHTREE CITY  63  85  58  77 /  60  10   5   0
VIDALIA         68  89  65  88 /  40  20   5   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...31

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
457 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

GAZ008-009-016-222145-
457 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PENNY SIZED HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS
IN WHITE...UNION AND TOWNS COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM EDT...

AT 455 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER LOW GAP SHELTER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20
MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH ARE LIKELY AS THIS STORM MOVES ACROSS WHITE...
UNION AND TOWNS COUNTIES THROUGH 545 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE
PATH OF THE STORM INCLUDE UNICOI STATE PARK...ROBERTSTOWN...VOGEL
STATE PARK...LOW GAP SHELTER...ANNA RUBY FALLS...TRACK ROCK...BLUE
MOUNTAIN SHELTER...MOUNTAIN SCENE...BRASSTOWN BALD...YOUNG HARRIS...
MACEDONIA...HIAWASSEE...PLUM ORCHARD GAP SHELTER...TATE CITY AND
TITUS.

&&

LAT...LON 3499 8354 3495 8354 3493 8359 3492 8359
      3488 8365 3482 8365 3480 8367 3477 8364
      3469 8375 3477 8394 3499 8384 3500 8355
TIME...MOT...LOC 2057Z 205DEG 18KT 3477 8383

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
500 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

GAZ039-051-222130-
500 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NICKEL SIZED HAIL AND 45 MPH
WINDS IN WILKES AND TALIAFERRO COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM EDT...

AT 455 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER SANDY CROSS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 45 MPH ARE LIKELY AS THIS STORM MOVES ACROSS WILKES AND
TALIAFERRO COUNTIES THROUGH 530 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF
THE STORM INCLUDE RAYTOWN...LYNEVILLE...SHARON...SANDY CROSS...
TYRONE...FICKLIN...LUNDBERG...ROCKY CREEK FIRE DEPT....HOLLIDAY
PARK...FLORAL HILL...DELHI...AONIA...METASVILLE...DANBURG AND
TIGNALL.

&&

LAT...LON 3363 8255 3363 8260 3360 8264 3359 8270
      3357 8271 3353 8280 3363 8295 3399 8267
      3392 8261 3388 8260 3386 8256 3382 8259
      3366 8249
TIME...MOT...LOC 2100Z 223DEG 16KT 3362 8283

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
529 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

GAZ027-222215-
529 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PENNY SIZED HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS
IN MADISON COUNTY UNTIL 615 PM EDT...

AT 526 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER NEESE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH ARE LIKELY AS THIS STORM MOVES ACROSS MADISON
COUNTY THROUGH 615 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM
INCLUDE SANFORD...DIAMOND HILL...NEESE...HULL...COLBERT...COMER...
DANIELSVILLE...ILA...POCATALIGO...PAOLI AND HARRISON.

&&

LAT...LON 3423 8307 3417 8309 3415 8305 3409 8302
      3400 8329 3405 8339 3413 8335 3416 8336
      3420 8340 3420 8338 3427 8330 3425 8325
      3425 8316 3427 8311
TIME...MOT...LOC 2129Z 218DEG 13KT 3413 8332

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
543 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

GAZ001>003-011-222230-
543 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PENNY SIZED HAIL AND 35 MPH WINDS
IN WALKER...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA AND DADE COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM EDT...

AT 538 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEW ENGLAND TO CLOUDLAND...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 35 MPH ARE LIKELY AS THESE STORMS MOVE ACROSS WALKER...
CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA AND DADE COUNTIES THROUGH 630 PM EDT. SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE CLOUDLAND...
MORGANVILLE...WILDWOOD...RISING FAWN...CLOUDLAND CANYON STATE PARK...
NEW ENGLAND...TRENTON...CEDAR GROVE...LOOKOUT MOUNTAIN...CENTER
POST...COOPER HEIGHTS...CHATTANOOGA VALLEY...SUTTLES MILL...NAOMI AND
LAFAYETTE.

&&

LAT...LON 3481 8513 3472 8517 3472 8513 3460 8513
      3450 8552 3471 8556 3489 8553 3499 8541
      3499 8514
TIME...MOT...LOC 2143Z 223DEG 30KT 3492 8541 3477 8549
          3457 8549

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
605 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

GAZ072-082-222245-
605 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DIME SIZED HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS
IN JONES AND BIBB COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM EDT...

AT 600 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER SKIPPERTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH ARE LIKELY AS THIS STORM MOVES ACROSS JONES AND
BIBB COUNTIES THROUGH 645 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE
STORM INCLUDE SKIPPERTON...RUTLAND...FRANKLINTON...WESLEYAN...
ARKWRIGHT...CROSS KEYS...PAYNE CITY...MACON...MOUNTAIN SPRINGS...
POSTELL...CLINTON AND GRISWOLDVILLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3275 8381 3308 8365 3290 8340 3288 8343
      3285 8350 3284 8351 3283 8350 3269 8367
TIME...MOT...LOC 2205Z 214DEG 10KT 3275 8373

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
607 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

GAZ059-060-222245-
607 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PENNY SIZED HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS
IN PUTNAM AND JASPER COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM EDT...

AT 604 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER HILLSBORO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH ARE LIKELY AS THIS STORM MOVES ACROSS PUTNAM AND
JASPER COUNTIES THROUGH 645 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE
STORM INCLUDE HILLSBORO...PIEDMONT...STANFORDVILLE...RESSEAUS
CROSSROADS...WARFIELD...CENTRAL GEORGIA EXPERIMENT STATION...
WILLARD...EATONTON AND SHADY DALE.

&&

LAT...LON 3345 8358 3329 8324 3320 8341 3317 8360
      3315 8370
TIME...MOT...LOC 2207Z 226DEG 14KT 3317 8360