Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
741 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.UPDATE...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADD THE FLOOD WATCH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPPER LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN KY WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN GA. THIS FEATURE HAS HELPED
DEVELOP AND SUSTAIN CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA
EARLY THIS MORNING. ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
HAVE COMBINED TO PRODUCE SLOW MOVING HEAVY RAINERS. MPE PLACES AN
AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN FROM SOUTHEAST WALKER COUNTY INTO EASTERN DAWSON
COUNTY. THE MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS SLOWLY PUSHING OFF TO THE
EAST...BUT CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP BACK OFF TO THE WEST. DO
THINK THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS WHERE CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP. FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CWFA...THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE
THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS. THIS HAS BEEN THE
CASE FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. HAVE MODELED POPS AROUND THE HRRR
OUTPUT FOR MUCH OF THE FIRST PERIOD. DO EXPECT ADDITIONAL STORMS TO
KEEP FIRING ACROSS NW GA THIS MORNING AND SPREADING SOUTHEAST. THE
SYNOPTIC MODELS ARE STILL HINTING AT A MCS TYPE FEATURE DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWFA AND PUSHING SE TODAY. THE HRRR ACTUALLY IS
HINTING AT THIS ALSO. NOT VERY CONFIDENT THIS WILL
HAPPEN...ESPECIALLY WITH ALL OF THE CLOUD DEBRIS AROUND. MORE
SCATTERED ACTIVITY COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
ZONES...WHERE THEY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING THE MOST HEATING.

IF AN MCS FEATURE DOES DEVELOP...ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WET MICROBURSTS. FLASH
FLOODING WILL ALSO BE A HAZARD...ESPECIALLY WHERE STORMS REPEATEDLY
MOVE.

TOOK BLEND FOR TEMPS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

PREICP SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SETS UP ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HAVE ONLY TWEAKED POPS DURING
THIS PERIOD.

FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...THE 500MB TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS REMAINS
ACROSS THE SE COAST. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP FOCUS SCT DIURNAL
CONVECTION EACH DAY. PREVIOUS RUNS PUSHED THE FEATURE OFF THE COAST
ON TUESDAY...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL EARLY WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY FOR THIS
FEATURE HAS BEEN LOW FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE ECMWF NOW HAS THE
BOUNDARY APPROACHING NORTHERN GA ON FRIDAY...AND MOVING THROUGH THE
CWFA DURING THE DAY. THE GFS HAS CONTINUES TO BRING THE BOUNDARY
SOUTHWARD. NEITHER MODEL IS PRODUCING MUCH PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE
FOR NOW...SO WILL LEAVE POPS IN THE SCT RANGE.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

MAIN CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED WERE TO UP POPS SLIGHTLY IN THE EAST
FOR WEDNESDAY. MAINLY PERSISTENCE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF WEEK.

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
CURRENT PATTERN MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO FORECAST THE TIMING OF
CONVECTION. FOLLOWED THE 06Z RUN OF THE HRRR FAIRLY CLOSELY FOR
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS...IT HAS BEEN THE
BEST MODEL. WINDS HAVE TEMPORARILY SWITCHED TO THE NE IN
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
LOW CONFIDENCE ON CIGS AND TIMING OF SHRA/TSRA. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
REMAINDER OF ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          79  64  85  66 /  90  40  30  20
ATLANTA         80  66  86  66 / 100  40  20  10
BLAIRSVILLE     73  59  83  60 /  80  30  30  20
CARTERSVILLE    80  65  88  65 / 100  40  20  20
COLUMBUS        86  67  90  67 /  70  50  20  10
GAINESVILLE     77  63  85  65 /  90  40  30  20
MACON           85  66  88  66 /  80  40  30  10
ROME            81  65  89  65 / 100  40  20  20
PEACHTREE CITY  81  64  87  64 / 100  40  20  10
VIDALIA         84  67  83  66 /  90  40  40  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BIBB...BUTTS...CARROLL...
CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...
COWETA...CRAWFORD...DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...DOUGLAS...FANNIN...
FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...GLASCOCK...GORDON...
GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...HANCOCK...HARALSON...HEARD...HENRY...
JACKSON...JASPER...JEFFERSON...JONES...LAMAR...LUMPKIN...
MADISON...MERIWETHER...MONROE...MORGAN...MURRAY...NEWTON...NORTH
FULTON...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PICKENS...PIKE...
POLK...PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...
TALIAFERRO...TOWNS...TROUP...UNION...UPSON...WALKER...WALTON...
WARREN...WASHINGTON...WHITE...WHITFIELD...WILKES...WILKINSON.

&&

SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
750 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-201200-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
750 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF TODAY ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GEORGIA AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. LARGE HAIL IS NOT EXPECTED...BUT PEA TO
NICKEL SIZED HAIL IS POSSIBLE. OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL
BE LIKELY.

A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
THROUGH THIS EVENING. STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. IN
ADDITION...DUE TO HEAVY RAINS OVERNIGHT CREEKS AND RIVERS HAVE
RAPIDLY RISEN ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW CREEKS AND STREAMS WILL
APPROACH OR REACH FLOOD STAGE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO SUBMIT REPORTS OF FLOODING THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

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