Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
329 PM EDT SUN APR 28 2013

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE ACTIVE REGION OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SPARKING
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH... CURRENTLY STRETCHING
FROM EAST CENTRAL MS...ACROSS AL AND INTO NORTH AND MUCH OF
CENTRAL GA. FLOODING CONTINUES TO BE A MAIN CONCERN ACROSS NORTH
GA AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN ACROSS AN ALREADY SATURATED
GROUND...WHERE 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN AND AN ADDITIONAL
1 TO 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE. A FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS ALREADY BEEN
POSTED FOR CHATTOOGA AND FLOYD COUNTIES DUE TO INUNDATED ROADWAYS.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF NORTH GA THROUGH 8
PM THIS EVENING.

ADDITIONAL CONCERNS ARE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS...MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF ATLANTA AND INTO CENTRAL GA
WHERE DISCRETE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED AHEAD OF THE MAIN RAIN
SHIELD. ONE DISCRETE STORM HAS PRODUCED LARGE HAIL IN THE LA GRANGE
AREA... AND ANOTHER FURTHER EAST IS SHOWING STRONG ROTATION. THE
MAIN CONCERNS FROM DISCRETE CELLS WILL BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO THROUGH EARLY EVENING...
ESPECIALLY AS STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO PRODUCE 300+
HELICITY DURING DAYTIME HEATING.

OTHERWISE... EXPECT THE FLOOD AND SEVERE THREAT TO GREATLY
DIMINISH BY 8-9 PM THIS EVENING AS THE STRONGER UPPER SUPPORT
SLIPS FURTHER EAST AND WE CONTINUE TO LOSS DAYTIME HEATING.

MODELS SHOW THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO BE SLOW PUSHING ACROSS
THE AREA... SO WILL SHOW A GRADUAL DECREASING OF POPS FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING...BEFORE ENDING RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY SOMETIME MONDAY NIGHT.

AS FOR TEMPS... HAVE LEANED TOWARD A MAV AND MET BLEND THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH SEASONABLE COOLER LOWS SPREADING INTO THE AREA BY
MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

39

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS MODELS
CONTINUE SHOW RAIN CHANCES SPREADING BACK INTO THE AREA BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
SEE THE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS. /39

.PREV LONG TERM DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 456 AM EDT SUN APR 28 2013/

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GUIDANCE IS OVERALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MAIN INFLUENCING
FEATURES THROUGHOUT LONG TERM. AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE EXITS THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
BY MIDWEEK. THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO ADVECT SOME GULF AND ATLANTIC
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA STARTING LATE TUESDAY. A STRENGTHENING
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL RESULT IN A
HYBRID CAD WEDGE IMPINGING UPON THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST BY
WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD SERVE TO PRIMARILY LIMIT INSTABILITY IN
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...SO HAVE KEPT HIGHER CHANCE POPS
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHWEST AND TRENDED LOWER
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE GENERAL PATTERN THROUGH
FRIDAY.

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW IS FORECAST TO LINGER ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS LOOKS TO PUSH AN OCCLUDED
FRONT NEAR THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE BY SATURDAY SO HAVE
INCREASED POPS ACCORDINGLY. FOR NOW GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD
CONSENSUS WITH TIMING OF THE FRONT...THOUGH ANY SHORTWAVE
PERTURBATIONS ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH MAY SERVE TO PROVIDE
ENHANCEMENTS TO THE PRECIP CHANCE.

BAKER

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS MOVING ACROSS THE TAF SITES AND THIS TREND
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THRU THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING HOURS IF NOT
LATER. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PREVAIL WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS...
GENERALLY WITHIN CONVECTION. MODELS BEGIN TO PUSH THE MAIN
CONVECTION EAST AND SOUTH OF ATLANTA AREA TAF SITES BY 06-08Z
TONIGHT SO WILL REMOVE PRECIP BY THEN. IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY SETTLE
IN WITH ENDING OF THE -RA AROUND 06Z AND PERSIST THRU 13-14Z MON.
THEN EXPECT A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY 16-17Z MON. WINDS WILL
VEER SW BY 20-22Z SUN...THEN WEST BY 12-14Z MON... WITH SPEEDS
GENERALLY 9 KTS OR LESS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS AND END OF CONVECTION. MEDIUM TO HIGH
ON OTHER ELEMENTS.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          59  75  54  79 / 100  50  10  10
ATLANTA         59  76  58  80 / 100  40  10  10
BLAIRSVILLE     53  72  52  74 /  90  40  10  10
CARTERSVILLE    57  76  54  82 /  90  40  10  10
COLUMBUS        60  79  58  81 /  90  40  10  20
GAINESVILLE     57  74  56  79 / 100  40  10  10
MACON           61  77  56  82 / 100  50  20  10
ROME            56  76  51  83 /  70  20   5  10
PEACHTREE CITY  57  76  51  80 /  90  40  10  10
VIDALIA         63  78  60  81 /  80  60  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BANKS...BARTOW...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...DADE...
DAWSON...FANNIN...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...GORDON...HALL...
LUMPKIN...MURRAY...PICKENS...TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...WHITE...
WHITFIELD.

&&

SHORT TERM...39
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...39

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