Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
348 PM EDT THU APR 11 2013

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS EASTERN MISSISSIPPI AND NORTHWEST
ALABAMA...WITH A WARM FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA. FFC FORECAST AREA IS WELL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR
THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STARTED TO INCREASE
IN COVERAGE SINCE THE EARLY AFTERNOON. 18Z SOUNDING SHOWS A STRONG
CAP AROUND 675MB. THE CAP SHOULD ERODE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH
STORM INTENSITY INCREASING.

SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN
EASTERN MS/NW ALABAMA AS A STRONG SW/500MB TROUGH SWINGS OUT OF THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND INTO THE CWFA DURING THE
EVENING...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE CWFA OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. NAM AND GFS PROG SEVERAL HUNDRED TO AROUND A 1000
J/KG OF CAPE WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN ADDITION...SHEAR WILL
INCREASE AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES AS WILL LIFT WHEN THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. 18Z SOUNDING ALSO SHOWS A NICE INVERTED V
STRUCTURE...INDICATIVE OF STRONG/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE SQUALL
LINE ALREADY HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING TORNADOES...AND WITH THE
SHEAR INCREASING...THE POTENTIAL TORNADOES TO DEVELOP WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES.

STORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS/EARLY FRIDAY UNTIL THE
FRONT EXITS THE CWFA. RAPID CLEARING IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY. TOOK A BLEND FOR TEMPS.

NLISTEMAA

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. INCREASED POPS A
BIT FOR SUN AS NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES IN BUT LEFT THE LOCATION OF
THE EXPECTED PRECIP AS IS. CLEARING CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED
ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE STATE BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY...THEN THE SURFACE RIDGE SLIPS EAST AND ESTABLISHES A
WARM...MOIST SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS
SAME TIME...THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST THAT SPARKS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE GULF COAST THAT INITIALLY SPREAD INTO
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA...BEFORE SPREADING OVER
THE REST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOW THIS ACTIVE
PATTERN CONTINUING AS A SERIES OF SUBTLE DISTURBANCES INTERACT
WITH THE WARM MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. THIS WILL PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON
MONDAY...TUESDAY AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY...MAINLY DURING DAYTIME
HEATING. HOWEVER...WILL HOLD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH
NIGHT.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BREAK OUT THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FROPA WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT...BRINGING
ADDITIONAL STORMS TO THE REGION. INSTABILITY DOESN'T DECREASE MUCH
WITH SUNSET...AND SHEAR WILL INCREASE ALONG THE FRONT.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ALONG WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A WIND SHIFT TO THE W
SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN 07Z AND 09Z WITH A SWITCH TO THE NW AROUND
12Z...ALONG WITH THE SCT OUT OF LL CLOUDS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          60  73  46  76 / 100  30   0   0
ATLANTA         54  68  48  73 / 100  10   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     52  65  41  70 / 100  20   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    53  68  43  73 / 100   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        59  74  51  78 / 100  10   0   0
GAINESVILLE     56  69  46  73 / 100  20   0   0
MACON           64  75  45  79 / 100  30   0   0
ROME            51  69  43  73 / 100   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  55  70  44  75 / 100  10   0   0
VIDALIA         68  78  52  79 / 100  50   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
738 AM EDT THU APR 11 2013

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-121145-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
738 AM EDT THU APR 11 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON... THEN PUSH ACROSS THE STATE
OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONT.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL ACCOMPANY
THIS SYSTEM... EITHER EMBEDDED WITHIN A SQUALL LINE OR FROM
DISCRETE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE.
ALTHOUGH DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT... A FEW EMBEDDED
TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. ESTIMATED TIMING OF
THE SQUALL LINE IS ENTERING NORTHWEST GEORGIA BY LATE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING... THE ATLANTA METRO AREA BY MID EVENING... THEN
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA DURING THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING HOURS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES... ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH
AND PARTS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA WHERE WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD RESULT IN BRIEF MINOR FLOODING
OF A FEW AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS... AS WELL AS OTHER TYPICAL LOW
LYING... FLOOD PRONE AREAS.

ALL INTEREST ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA ARE ADVISED TO CLOSELY
MONITOR THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS FRONTAL SYSTEM AND REMAIN ALERT
FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

A SERIES OF SUBTLE DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL INTERACT
WITH A WARM... MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY... TUESDAY AND AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY... AND MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR
ACTIVATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON... OR EARLY THIS EVENING.

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