Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
329 PM EDT SUN MAR 31 2013

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT IS TROPICAL IN NATURE AND THE SMALL SHOWERS ARE PUTTING
OUT SOME HEAVY RAINFALL. THERE WILL ALSO BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDER MIXED IN WITH THE SHOWERS. THE PRECIP WILL END FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT WITH MOST AREAS BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY BY LATE
MORNING ON MONDAY. GUIDANCE TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE AND HAVE MADE ONLY
MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

/17

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF AND GFS MODEL RUNS ARE NOW IN MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO OVERALL POSITION AND TIMING OF OUR LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TOWARD END WEEK. BOTH MODELS NOW TRACK THE SURFACE
LOW OVER MAINLY SOUTH GA THURSDAY NIGHT... WITH MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA REMAINING IN A COOLER NORTHEAST WEDGE FLOW AT THE SURFACE...
RESULTING IN MORE OF A STABLE OVERRUNNING RAIN EVENT FOR THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER... APPEARS THAT PARTS OF CENTRAL GA COULD
GET IN THE WARM SECTOR THURSDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT... WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT MORE SURFACE BASED CONVECTION IN THAT AREA. WITH MUCH UNCERTAINTY
ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA...
ALL INTEREST ARE ADVISED TO MONITOR LATER FORECAST CLOSELY FOR POTENTIAL
SEVERE WEATHER RISK DEVELOPING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT ON
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME... IT APPEARS THIS EVENT
COULD BE MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN EVENT... WHERE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN
LOOKS POSSIBLE OVER THE FORECAST AREA FROM EARLY THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY... WITH THE GREATER AMOUNTS EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL GA WHERE THE
HEAVIER...MORE UNSTABLE CONVECTION APPEARS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR AT
THIS TIME. EXPECT TO CLEAR OUT ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRIER CONDITIONS ON TAP FOR THE WEEKEND. /39

PREVIOUS LONG TERM ... /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
/ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT SUN MAR 31 2013/
MAIN RAIN EVENT WILL ENCOMPASS THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
GFS/EUROPEAN SIMILAR WITH BRINGING RAIN TO THE AREA POSSIBLY AS
EARLY AS TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY BUT MORE SO WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS ALONG THE GULF COAST WITH
OVERRUNNING MOIST FLOW SETTING UP. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE
GFS AND EUROPEAN IS THE EUROPEAN BRINGS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS CENTRAL TO S GA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WHILE THE GFS
TAKES THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS N FL. GFS BRINGS ONLY MINIMAL MUCAPE
INTO CENTRAL GA THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. IF THE EUROPEAN SURFACE
SOLUTION COMES TO PASS THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE
GREATER WITH THE WARM FRONT POSSIBLY GETTING INTO CENTRAL GA WITH
A LOW END THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER. EITHER WAY A GOOD RAIN EVENT
WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL GA. THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO
THE AREA FRIDAY WITH THE GFS A LITTLE FASTER WITH THE TROUGH AND
MOISTURE EXITING THAN THE EUROPEAN. A DAMPENING SHORT WAVE RIDGE
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVE TO THE AREA SATURDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AND THIS LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY.

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
/ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT SUN MAR 31 2013/
SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAINING FROM THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION OVER
ALABAMA WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AS
SURFACE HEATING INCREASES LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ISOLATED TSRA WILL
DEVELOP. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING
BRINGING SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIP WILL END FROM
THE NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TONIGHT
WILL KEEP CIGS BELOW 1000 FT MOST AREAS. CIGS WILL RISE TO VFR BY
18Z MON ALL AREAS AND REMAIN VFR THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING...THEN NORTHWEST
AFTER FROPA LATE TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY MORNING
WITH GUSTS TO 15 TO 20KTS MONDAY AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          51  75  46  65 /  90  10  10  10
ATLANTA         54  71  50  62 /  90  10  10  10
BLAIRSVILLE     48  67  39  60 /  90  10  20  10
CARTERSVILLE    50  72  43  60 /  90  10  10  10
COLUMBUS        59  77  52  75 /  90  30   5  10
GAINESVILLE     50  72  47  60 /  90  10  10  10
MACON           57  77  48  73 /  90  30   5  10
ROME            49  72  43  60 /  90  10  20  10
PEACHTREE CITY  52  73  45  66 /  90  10   5  10
VIDALIA         61  76  53  77 /  70  60  10  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...17

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
540 PM EDT SUN MAR 31 2013

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-012145-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
540 PM EDT SUN MAR 31 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA THROUGH TONIGHT....

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE
TONIGHT. SOME INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE HAS
ALREADY ALLOWED FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. ALTHOUGH
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...AN ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL GEORGIA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. NO SEVERE WEATHER
IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

A MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY RAIN EVENT IS EXPECTED
TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA IN THE WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY
TIME FRAME. 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH
THE HIGHER AMOUNTS MORE LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. WITH THIS
SYSTEM THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
GEORGIA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS GREAT UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE POSITIONING OF THE WARM FRONT BUT IF THE WARM FRONT CAN
MAKE IT INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA THURSDAY NIGHT...THERE COULD BE A
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER
ONLINE AT WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

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