Severe Thunderstorm Warning 131, NWS Atlanta, GA

106 
WWUS52 KFFC 072309
SVSFFC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
709 PM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013

GAC091-175-072315-
/O.CON.KFFC.SV.W.0131.000000T0000Z-130607T2315Z/
LAURENS GA-DODGE GA-
709 PM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM EDT
FOR CENTRAL DODGE AND SOUTHERN LAURENS COUNTIES...

AT 702 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER
SIZED HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM RENTZ TO CADWELL TO 7 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF EASTMAN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO LOWERY
AND PLAINFIELD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU SEE WIND DAMAGE...HAIL OR FLOODING...WAIT UNTIL THE STORM HAS
PASSED...AND THEN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOLL FREE AT 1 8
6 6 7 6 3 4 4 6 6. YOU CAN ALSO TWEET YOUR REPORT USING HASHTAG GAWX.

&&

LAT...LON 3211 8321 3220 8327 3250 8283 3235 8272
      3233 8275 3231 8272 3228 8276 3227 8275
TIME...MOT...LOC 2305Z 226DEG 25KT 3238 8293 3232 8300
          3217 8326

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
331 PM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ADVANCING UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND AREA OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS ENTERING THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT IN THE INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OUT
AHEAD. MLCAPE VALUES ARE GENERALLY NEAR 1500 J/KG AND MAY INCREASE
MORE WITH RADIATIONAL SFC HEATING FROM SOME SCATTERING OUT OF
MIDLEVEL CLOUDS. WHILE THERE IS WEAK SHEAR...THE SHORTWAVE IS
DECENTLY HIGH AMPLITUDE AND SHOULD BRING PLENTY OF FORCING FOR
ASCENT AND FOCUS MOST WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
HALF OF THE AREA. WITH SUCH AN ENVIRONMENT AND LOWERING OF FREEZING
LEVEL WITH APPROACHING TROUGH...THERE COULD BE ISOLATED STRONG
STORMS WITH MAIN THREATS OF SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. THERE COULD BE UP TO AN
ADDITIONAL 0.5-0.75 INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH THE DEVELOPMENT SO AREAS
HAVING RECEIVED DECENT AMOUNTS OF PREVIOUS RAIN MAY BE A BIT SLOWER
TO RECEDE. HAVE GONE WITH NEAR DEFINITE TO CATEGORICAL FOR INITIAL
POPS IN NORTHWEST AND TREND LIKELY POPS WITH MAIN TROUGH FORCING.

THE WAVE IS PROGGED TO PUSH NEWD AND EXIT THE AREA BY 12Z SATURDAY.
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD PATCHY FOG BY
THE MORNING HOURS. SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES OF REDUCED
CIGS AND VSBYS ALSO SUPPORT THIS. WHILE THERE WILL BE A LACK OF
UPPER LEVEL FORCING ON SATURDAY...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL STILL BE
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AND SO DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE
BUT SHOULD BE MUCH LESS COVERAGE THAN THE FIRST TWO PERIODS. HAVE
CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POPS.

FOR TEMPS...GENERAL BLEND OF GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE AND SHOULD BE
NEAR NORMAL WITH LOWS MAINLY IN 60S AND HIGHS IN 80S.

BAKER

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERALL...PREVOUS FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. HAVE MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. OVERALL POPS AND WX GRIDS LOOK GOOD...BUT HAVE
MADE EDITS TO INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY POPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM.
OVERALL...HAVE AVOIDED WHOLE-SCALE CHANGES. THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION STILL APPLIES...SO HAVE INCLUDED IT BELOW.

31

&&

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
/ISSUED 436 AM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013/
INTO THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE SOUTHERLY
FLOW REGIME PUMP MOISTURE BACK TO THE NORTH WITH PWATS CLOSING IN
ON 2 INCHES BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TIER WHERE I WILL CARRY HIGH END CHANCE
POPS. FOR MONDAY...MIDWEST TROUGH WILL TRANSITION EAST AS
CONSIDERABLE MODEL DIFFERENCES CREEP INTO THE PICTURE. GFS IS NOT
NEARLY AS SHARP WITH THE TROUGH OR AS SOUTHERN TRENDING AS
PREVIOUS RUNS. THE ECMWF MEANWHILE MAINTAINS A SHARPER TROUGH AXIS
THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BUT PERHAPS LESS MOISTURE THAN THE
GFS. AT THIS POINT...WITH AT LEAST SOME UPPER ENERGY PROGGED TO
MOVE THROUGH...ENOUGH MOISTURE SHOULD BE PRESENT TO WARRANT HIGH
END CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTH. THESE VALUES MAY NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED UPWARD WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.

ONCE FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS ON TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EAST
BUT LEAVES OUR AREA ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE...FAVORABLE FOR
MCS DEVELOPMENT BUT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT LOCATION OR TIMING THIS
FAR OUT. WILL GENERALLY GO WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT
FAVOR THE NORTHEAST SECTIONS WHERE UPPER ENERGY LOOKS MOST LIKELY
TO RESIDE. THE MOST POTENT OF THESE LOOKS TO BE ON THU AFTERNOON
AS GFS SHOWS SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE ENERGY LINING UP WELL WITH AN
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY. WILL GIVE IT ANOTHER MODEL RUN BUT THESE
POPS MAY TOO NEED TO BE PUSHED HIGHER AS EVENT DRAWS CLOSER.

DEESE

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
INITIAL VFR CONDITIONS LOWERING TO LIFR/IFR OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BEGINNING TO OCCUR ACROSS
STATE...THOUGH BEST CHANCE ALONG UPPER DISTURBANCE AS IT MOVES
THROUGH MAINLY AFTER 21Z SO HAVE INCLUDED PREDOMINANT -SHRA WITH
TEMPO FOR -TSRA INTO THE EVENING. CIGS WILL MAINLY RANGE FROM 2-4
KFT WITH PRECIP AND POTENTIAL FOR LOWERING VSBYS WITH HEAVIER
RAIN. DECENT CHANCE FOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR LIFR CIGS
NEAR 400 FT AND POTENTIALLY LOWER WITH VSBYS NEAR 2 SM FROM ABOUT
10-14Z SATURDAY THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE. WINDS SHOULD STAY WEST AT
MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON INITIAL PRECIP AND OVERNIGHT CIGS/VSBYS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELSE.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          65  86  66  86 /  60  20  20  40
ATLANTA         65  83  69  84 /  60  20  20  40
BLAIRSVILLE     59  79  62  81 /  60  20  10  30
CARTERSVILLE    62  83  65  87 /  60  20  20  30
COLUMBUS        67  86  70  86 /  60  30  20  40
GAINESVILLE     64  82  66  83 /  60  20  20  30
MACON           67  87  68  88 /  50  40  20  40
ROME            63  83  64  87 /  60  20  20  30
PEACHTREE CITY  63  83  65  84 /  60  30  20  40
VIDALIA         71  88  72  88 /  50  40  20  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...BAKER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1206 PM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-081615-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
1206 PM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA AND
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN
THREATS WITH ANY DEVELOPMENT WILL BE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY
WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
AND ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INCREASING INSTABILITY WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL
ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS TO DEVELOP. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT
FROM WEST GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THIS
EVENING PROVIDING RAINFALL FOR AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED
COPIOUS AMOUNTS THE LAST FEW DAYS. THEREFORE...THOSE NEAR RIVERS
AND CREEKS OR AREAS THAT EXPERIENCED FLOODING ISSUES OVER THE LAST
24 HOURS SHOULD STAY ALERT TO CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

DISCUSSION...
AFTER A RELATIVELY DRY DAY ON SATURDAY AND ONLY SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...THE CHANCE WILL INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN ON SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE NORTHERN SECTIONS. JUST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ANTICIPATED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH THURSDAY LOOKING LIKE
THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
427 PM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013

GAZ004-005-072100-
427 PM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HEAVY RAIN IN WHITFIELD AND
MURRAY COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

AT 422 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER SUMAC...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
WHITFIELD AND MURRAY COUNTIES...INCLUDING AREAS AROUND
ETON...SUMAC...BEAVERDALE...CRANDALL...GREGORY...CISCO...CONASAUGA
LAKE AND TENNGA. DRIVERS SHOULD USE CAUTION AS INTENSE RAINFALL WILL
REDUCE VISIBILITIES. PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS IS ALSO LIKELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3486 8462 3479 8481 3486 8486 3496 8491
      3500 8484 3499 8463
TIME...MOT...LOC 2027Z 241DEG 10KT 3490 8479

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
520 PM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013

GAZ034-045-072145-
520 PM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 45 MPH WINDS IN DEKALB AND
GWINNETT COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM EDT...

AT 518 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER PANTHERSVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
DEKALB AND GWINNETT COUNTIES THROUGH 545 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN
THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE EAST LAKE...PANTHERSVILLE...AVONDALE
ESTATES...SCOTTDALE...BELMONT...PINE LAKE...CLARKSTON...REDAN...
CENTERVILLE...PLEASANT HILL...ROSEBUD...SNELLVILLE...LILBURN...
LAWRENCEVILLE AND GRAYSON. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3387 8388 3382 8393 3366 8428 3373 8433
      3404 8406
TIME...MOT...LOC 2120Z 229DEG 18KT 3372 8427

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
531 PM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013

GAZ033-044-054-055-057-072200-
531 PM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL IN FAYETTE...
HENRY...CLAYTON AND FULTON COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM EDT...

AT 527 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER KENWOOD...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
FAYETTE...HENRY...CLAYTON AND FULTON COUNTIES THROUGH 600 PM EDT.
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE KENWOOD...
JONESBORO...RIVERDALE...HARTSFIELD-JACKSON AIRPORT...FORT GILLEM...
FOREST PARK...LAKE CITY...MORROW...STOCKBRIDGE...CONLEY...
ELLENWOOD...REX AND HIDDEN VALLEY PARK. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3367 8435 3365 8435 3365 8424 3363 8424
      3365 8422 3365 8419 3357 8414 3356 8410
      3348 8447 3355 8451 3360 8453
TIME...MOT...LOC 2132Z 248DEG 32KT 3356 8441

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
551 PM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013

GAZ034-035-045>048-072215-
551 PM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HEAVY RAIN IN WALTON...
ROCKDALE...NEWTON...BARROW...DEKALB AND GWINNETT COUNTIES UNTIL 615
PM EDT...

AT 546 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER CENTERVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN ONE TO TWO INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
WALTON...ROCKDALE...NEWTON...BARROW...DEKALB AND GWINNETT
COUNTIES...INCLUDING AREAS AROUND CENTERVILLE...GUM CREEK...BIG
HAYNES CREEK PARK...LAKEVIEW
ESTATES...ROSEBUD...SNELLVILLE...LITHONIA...GRAYSON...YOUTH...WALNUT
GROVE...JERSEY...LOGANVILLE...BETWEEN...WINDSOR AND HERNDONVILLE.
DRIVERS SHOULD USE CAUTION AS INTENSE RAINFALL WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITIES. PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS IS ALSO LIKELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3407 8377 3407 8374 3405 8371 3406 8370
      3405 8369 3371 8364 3370 8413 3401 8394
      3411 8380
TIME...MOT...LOC 2151Z 243DEG 28KT 3383 8398

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
601 PM EDT FRI JUN 07 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0505 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 S ALPHARETTA          34.06N 84.29W
06/07/2013                   FULTON             GA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            BROADCAST MEDIA RELAYED A REPORT OF A TREE DOWN IN
            ALPHARETTA. NUMEROUS PUBLIC PHONE CALLS TO THE THE WFO
            REPORTED LARGE TREE BRANCHES DOWN.

&&

AGIBBS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
635 PM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013

GAZ097-109-072300-
635 PM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS
IN LAURENS AND DODGE COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM EDT...

AT 632 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER UNION...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
LAURENS AND DODGE COUNTIES THROUGH 700 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE
PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE UNION...EASTMAN...GODWINSVILLE AND JAY
BIRD SPRINGS. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3215 8332 3233 8294 3219 8289 3218 8288
      3214 8293 3215 8294 3214 8296 3212 8294
      3211 8295 3208 8330
TIME...MOT...LOC 2235Z 251DEG 24KT 3213 8325