River Flood Warning 189, NWS Atlanta, GA

321 
WGUS82 KFFC 071833
FLSFFC
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
233 PM EDT WED AUG 7 2013

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
GEORGIA...
 
  CARTECAY RIVER NEAR EAST ELLIJAY AFFECTING GILMER COUNTY

  COOSAWATTEE RIVER NEAR ELLIJAY AFFECTING GILMER COUNTY

  FAUSETT CREEK NEAR TALKING ROCK AFFECTING GILMER COUNTY
 
GAC123-071903-
/O.CAN.KFFC.FL.W.0189.000000T0000Z-130808T0317Z/
/EECG1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
233 PM EDT WED AUG 7 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE CARTECAY RIVER NEAR EAST ELLIJAY.
* THIS TAKES AFFECT IMMEDIATELY.
* AT 200 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 4.5 FEET...AND NEARLY
  STEADY.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 7 FEET. 
* THE RIVER WILL GRADUALLY FALL THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

GAC123-071903-
/O.CAN.KFFC.FL.W.0190.000000T0000Z-130808T0444Z/
/ELIG1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
233 PM EDT WED AUG 7 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE COOSAWATTEE RIVER NEAR ELLIJAY.
* THIS TAKES AFFECT IMMEDIATELY.
* AT 200 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 4.7 FEET...AND SLOWLY
  FALLING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8 FEET. 
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL.

$$

GAC123-071903-
/O.CAN.KFFC.FL.W.0188.000000T0000Z-130807T1833Z/
/FCTG1.1.ER.130807T1045Z.130807T1315Z.130807T1405Z.NO/
233 PM EDT WED AUG 7 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE FAUSETT CREEK NEAR TALKING ROCK.
* THIS TAKES AFFECT IMMEDIATELY.
* AT 200 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 5 FEET...AND FALLING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10 FEET. 
* THE CREEK WILL CONTINUE TO FALL.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
738 AM EDT WED AUG 7 2013

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 AM EDT WED AUG 7 2013/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...SHORT TERM SYNOPTIC
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL TRENDS.
HOWEVER...AS WE GO THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...NAM SLOWLY BECOMES MORE
OF AN OUTLIER IN HOW IT HANDLES THE UPPER LOW /DEEPER AND THUS
MOVING MORE SLOWLY/ AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. HAVE OPTED FOR MORE OF
A GFS/ECMWF COMPROMISE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. OVERALL FOR THE
SOUTHEAST...RIDGING WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...
WHILE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA CONTINUES TO SPIN AND SPIT OUT
INTERMITTENT IMPULSES. THE FIRST IS PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY.

IMMEDIATE CONCERN FOR THIS MORNING IS HEAVY RAIN IN NORTHEAST
GEORGIA. AT AFD TIME...3-HR RADAR ESTIMATES OF OVER 6 INCHES IN
SOUTHEAST DAWSON COUNTY ALONG THE ETOWAH RIVER. SEVERAL COUNTIES UP
THERE HAVE SEEN 2-4 INCHES BUT DAWSON IS THE WORST. 00Z KFFC
SOUNDING HAD PW ALMOST AT 2 INCHES...AND PW VALUES PROGGED TO
INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE DAY. HEAVY RAIN IS DEFINITELY A
CONCERN AS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY. 00Z HIRES
MODELS ARE ACTUALLY CAPTURING THE CONVECTION IN NE GEORGIA VERY
WELL...SO IF THE TRENDS FROM THESE MODELS ARE TO BE BELIEVED...THE
AREA IN NE GA WILL SAG SOUTHWEST WHILE CONVECTION DEVELOPS IN SITU
OVER NORTHEAST ALABAMA/NORTHWEST GEORGIA AFTER SUNRISE AND MOVES
SOUTHEAST...WHILE THE REMNANTS OF THE MCS OVER MISSOURI MOVE INTO
NORTHWEST GEORGIA AFTER 18Z. THIS RESULTS IN POTENTIALLY MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA BEFORE THE
CONVECTION DISSIPATES LATE THIS EVENING. HAVE GONE LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS IN SOME AREAS IN N GA FOR TODAY. EXCEPT FOR THE
FACT THAT WE HAVE HAD SEVERAL DRY DAYS...WOULD BE TEMPTED TO ISSUE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH. AS IT IS...CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING THROUGH THE DAY /AS IS ALREADY OCCURRING/. OTHER CONCERN
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CONVECTION MOVES INTO NW GA WILL BE POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED DOWNBURST /WET MICROBURSTS/. DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD
SEVERE BUT ISOLATED SEVERE CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

SHOULD SEE A LULL IN ACTIVITY TONIGHT BUT ANOTHER INCREASE IN
CONVECTION ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA TOMORROW AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH THE FLOW. INTRODUCED LIKELY POPS ACROSS
NORTH GEORGIA THURSDAY.

CONTINUED BIAS-CORRECTED BLEND FOR TEMPS...THOUGH SLIGHTLY
INCREASING THICKNESSES WILL COMPETE WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER.
TEMPS TODAY GOT JUST A TAD WARMER THAN FORECAST SO BUMPED UP THE
BIAS-CORRECTED BLEND NUMBERS EVER SO SLIGHTLY. BUT ESPECIALLY TODAY
TEMPS SHOULD BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR HIGHS BY 3-5 DEGREES...
BUT NEAR NORMAL FOR LOW. THURSDAY SHOULD BE A TAD WARMER BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH AND WITH HIGH-IMPACT IMMEDIATE
CONCERNS DID NOT DO SIGNIFICANT ANALYSIS FOR THURSDAY TEMPS.

TDP

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ANCHORED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH
A SERIES OF UPPER SHORT WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE STATE. HAVE KEPT
MAINLY CHANCE POPS DURING THE DAY AND CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER FOR SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
DRIFT INTO NORTH GEORGIA AND STALL FOR A DAY OR TWO. SO HAVE
INCLUDED LIKELY POPS FOR NORTH GEORGIA ON SATURDAY. UPPER FLOW
TRANSITIONS TO A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES BY THE FIRST OF
THE WEEK. SOME DRYING IS INDICATED FOR NORTH GEORGIA MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO REMOVE POPS ALTOGETHER. TEMPERATURES
LOOK SEASONAL WITH MID TO UPPER 80S NORTH TO LOW AND MID 90S
SOUTH.

41

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING EXCEPT CSG WHERE
VFR PREVAILS. CIGS SHOULD LIFT THROUGH THE MORNING AS SHRA AND
TSRA MOVES IN. BEST TIMING FOR TEMPO TSRA IS 18-22Z BUT COULD
EASILY MOVE IN EARLIER AND STAY LATER. CIGS VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BUT EXPECT MVFR AND POTENTIALLY IFR AGAIN THURSDAY
MORNING. SE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHRA AND POSSIBLY TSRA
MOVING BACK IN THURSDAY BUT ONLY INTRODUCED VCSH FOR NOW.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM HIGH ON CIGS.
HIGH ON OCCURRENCE OF CONVECTION...MEDIUM ON TIMING AND DURATION.
HIGH ON WINDS.

TDP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          84  69  89  71 /  70  30  50  30
ATLANTA         85  71  88  72 /  80  50  50  30
BLAIRSVILLE     80  68  84  68 /  80  50  60  30
CARTERSVILLE    87  70  89  71 /  80  50  60  30
COLUMBUS        90  73  92  74 /  70  30  40  20
GAINESVILLE     83  70  86  71 /  80  50  50  30
MACON           88  70  91  73 /  50  20  40  20
ROME            86  71  88  71 /  80  50  70  30
PEACHTREE CITY  86  70  88  71 /  80  40  50  30
VIDALIA         90  73  91  73 /  20  10  40  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BANKS...BARTOW...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...DADE...
DAWSON...FANNIN...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...GORDON...HALL...
LUMPKIN...MURRAY...PICKENS...TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...WHITE...
WHITFIELD.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
631 AM EDT WED AUG 7 2013

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-081045-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
631 AM EDT WED AUG 7 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
NORTH GEORGIA.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
AND TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION. THE PRIMARY WEATHER HAZARD WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
POSSIBLE LOCAL FLASH FLOODING. RAINFALL RATES OF ONE TO TWO INCHES
PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. OTHER HAZARDS INCLUDE
GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. ISOLATED STORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE. ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH OR GREATER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH THE
WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
739 AM EDT WED AUG 07 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0736 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 NNE HOLLIS LATHEM RES 34.40N 84.25W
08/07/2013                   DAWSON             GA   911 CALL CENTER

            HOLCOMB ROAD CLOSED. YELLOW CREEK IS FLOWING OVER THE
            BRIDGE ON HOLCOMB ROAD.

&&

DDARBE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
827 AM EDT WED AUG 07 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 NE WASHINGTON         33.75N 82.73W
08/07/2013  M1.95 INCH       WILKES             GA   COCORAHS

            THIS IS A 24 HOUR TOTAL.

&&

GWETZEL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
855 AM EDT WED AUG 07 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0842 AM     FLASH FLOOD      5 SSW ELLIJAY           34.63N 84.52W
08/07/2013                   GILMER             GA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LEECHES ROAD OFF MT PISGAH ROAD IS IMPASSABLE DUE TO
            FLOODING.

0802 AM     FLASH FLOOD      5 SW ELLIJAY            34.64N 84.54W
08/07/2013                   GILMER             GA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            HOLDEN ROAD IS REPORTED IMPASSABLE VIA LOCAL MEDIA.

&&

GWETZEL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
857 AM EDT WED AUG 07 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0855 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 W CHESTATEE           34.29N 84.02W
08/07/2013                   FORSYTH            GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            GRINDLE ROAD CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING JUST NORTH OF HIGHWAY
            306.

&&

DDARBE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
859 AM EDT WED AUG 07 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0858 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 W CHESTATEE           34.29N 84.02W
08/07/2013                   FORSYTH            GA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            GRINDLE ROAD IS REPORTED CLOSED DUE TO WATER OVER THE
            ROAD.

&&

GWETZEL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
910 AM EDT WED AUG 07 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       JASPER                  34.47N 84.43W
08/07/2013  M5.19 INCH       PICKENS            GA   COCORAHS

            THIS IS A 24 HOUR TOTAL 0.6 MILES ENE OF JASPER.

0900 AM     HEAVY RAIN       6 NE NELSON             34.44N 84.30W
08/07/2013  M3.42 INCH       PICKENS            GA   COCORAHS

            THIS IS A 24 HOUR TOTAL.

&&

GWETZEL