Areal Flood Warning 7, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
300 PM EST TUE FEB 26 2013

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS SHOULD BE LIFTING NORTHEAST TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. MAIN AREA OF RAIN HAS STAYED FARTHER SOUTH TODAY BUT SHOULD
SPREAD NORTHWARD AGAIN TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF UPPER SYSTEM. WARM
FRONT NOT EXPECTED TO ADVANCE MUCH AS WEDGE HOLDS IN PLACE AND
WARMER AIR WILL PROBABLY STAY MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CWA TONIGHT.
HOWEVER STRONG SHEAR OVER THE WEDGE MAY SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY CENTRAL ZONES OVERNIGHT. MAIN SURFACE FRONT SHOULD PUSH
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE CENTRAL
AND EAST CENTRAL. ISOLATED SEVERE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING MOSTLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE CWA. DRY
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE DIFFICULT FOR OVERNIGHT WITH LITTLE DIURNAL CHANGE
IN THE WEDGE. TIMING OF FRONT AND HOW MUCH WEDGE RETREATS ALSO MAKE
HIGHS TUESDAY QUESTIONABLE. OTHERWISE MAV/MET COMPROMISE LOOKS OKAY.

41

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERALL...VERY FEW CHANGES MADE TO MOST OF THE EXTENDED. DID MAKE
UPDATES TO MOST ELEMENTS FOR PERIODS 4 AND 5 JUST TO REFRESH WITH
NEW DATA...THOUGH RESULTING CHANGES ARE SMALL. WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY STRONG MID-LEVEL LOW AND TROUGHING
OVER THE EAST COAST...WITH BRIEF NEAR-ZONAL FLOW TOWARD THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PUSHES IN FOR THE WEEKEND.
CONCERN REMAINS AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT IN
EITHER RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. THE MINOR CHANGES MADE TO TEMP GRIDS
BROUGHT SLIGHTLY COOLER MIN TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND.

TDP

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM EST TUE FEB 26 2013/
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST TRENDS. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE REGION UNDER A PERSISTENT UPPER
TROUGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT AND STOUT
LOW-LEVEL CAA. GFS FLIRTS WITH VERY LOW QPF IN THE FAR NORTH EACH DAY
THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE BRINGING IN SLIGHTLY BETTER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER QPF VALUES SATURDAY AS A SMALL BUT POTENT
SHORT WAVE SWEEPS THROUGH THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH. ECMWF KEEPS ANY
MEASURABLE QPF AMOUNTS GENERALLY NORTH OF THE STATE UNTIL THE SYSTEM
SWEEPS THROUGH SATURDAY. IN THE MEANTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
BELOW NORMAL WITH AT LEAST MIXED PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE IN THE FAR
NORTH WHERE ANY PRECIPITATION MANAGES TO MATERIALIZE. I HAVE CONFINED
POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES UNTIL SATURDAY...
WHEN I BUMP UP TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
AS FAR SOUTH AS THE ATLANTA METRO AND ATHENS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
STILL KEEP QPF AMOUNTS GENERALLY BELOW 1/10TH OF AN INCH PER 12 HOUR
PERIOD ON SATURDAY SO THIS CONTINUES TO BE A LOW QPF/LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST RIGHT NOW...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR THE
SATURDAY CHANCES. AFTER THE SHORT WAVE PASSES LATE SATURDAY...MODELS
ARE SHOWING THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH FINALLY SHIFTING EAST AS WELL.
THIS WOULD INDICATE A MAINLY DRY AND WARMING START TO NEXT WEEK.

20

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
WEDGE OVER NORTH GA HOLDING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WARM FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PROGRESS NORTH...BUT ATL AREA TAF SITES SHOULD BE THE
LAST TO IMPROVE. IFR CONDITIONS BECOMING MVFR AND THEN VFR BY 00Z.
EXPECT SOME CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT IN RANGE OF BKN030 TO BKN050.
WINDS GRADUALLY BECOMING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA 10 TO
15KT WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT BUT INCREASING AGAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER 14Z
WEDNESDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CIGS. HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          37  60  37  53 /   5   0   5   5
ATLANTA         37  58  37  49 /   5   5   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     34  50  33  44 /  20   5  20  20
CARTERSVILLE    36  56  35  48 /  10   5   5  10
COLUMBUS        40  63  39  57 /   5   0   5   5
GAINESVILLE     36  54  36  48 /  10   5   5   5
MACON           38  63  39  58 /   5   0   5   5
ROME            36  56  35  48 /  10   5   5  10
PEACHTREE CITY  34  59  34  51 /   5   0   5   5
VIDALIA         46  66  44  62 /   5   0   0   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....TDP
AVIATION...41

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
203 PM EST TUE FEB 26 2013

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-271915-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
203 PM EST TUE FEB 26 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES AT A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL
GEORGIA AND RIVERS CONTINUE TO RISE AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS AS A
RESULT OF THE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL.

DISCUSSION...

A FINAL ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN FELL ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS MORNING...LEADING TO ADDITIONAL RISES IN AREA
CREEKS AND STREAMS. PLEASE REFER TO AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS...
FLWFFC...OR AREAL FLOOD STATEMENTS...FLSFFC...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

DISCUSSION...

WATER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE FROM THE PREVIOUS HEAVY RAIN
AND ADDITIONAL STREAM AND RIVER FLOODING IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEK.

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER FAR
NORTH GEORGIA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. AT THIS TIME...NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED BUT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.