Areal Flood Warning 22, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
741 AM EDT THU AUG 1 2013

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
/ISSUED 417 AM EDT THU AUG 1 2013/
AREA REMAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND VORT MAX MOVING ACROSS THE STATE
THIS MORNING LED TO SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. THIS VORT MAX WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE CWA THIS MORNING AND
WITH THE LOSS OF THIS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...DEVELOPMENT FOR TODAY
WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE SFC TROUGH THAT WILL BE OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA
THIS AFTERNOON. HI RES MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH HANDLING
CONVECTION TODAY. AREA OF RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AND
SOUTH THIS MORNING AND WEAKEN BY MID-MORNING AS THE VORT MAX EXITS
THE CWA. HI-RES MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH REDEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON AND THINK THE LOCAL WRF AND WRF NMM ARE HANDLING THIS
AFTERNOON THE BEST...AS COMPARED TO THE HRRR. THEY SUGGEST BETTER
POPS WILL BE LOCATED NEAR THE SFC TROUGH AND FORECAST IS CONSISTENT
WITH THIS...CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA FOR THE
AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SOME DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY SO HAVE
CARRIED SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE ON DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THAT AREA INTO THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON IS LOW.

CLOUD COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE FOR THE AFTERNOON AS COMPARED TO THIS
MORNING AND THUS CENTRAL GEORGIA SHOULD SEE DECENT INSTABILITY
VALUES THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST CAPE VALUES ARE AROUND 2000 J/KG FOR
THIS AFTERNOON WITH AROUND 25 TO 30KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS IS
ENOUGH FOR A FEW STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON TO
BECOME STRONG WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING STRONG WINDS.
OVERNIGHT...TWO TO FOUR INCHES FELL ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH
GEORGIA...PROMPTING A FLASH FLOOD WARNING. RAINFALL TOTALS FOR TODAY
THOUGH /EXCLUDING WHAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN/ SHOULD GENERALLY BE AN
INCH OR LESS SO NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS EXPECTED...HOWEVER GIVEN
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING.

WITH BOTH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING TODAY AND THE SFC TROUGH
SHIFTING EAST TONIGHT...CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR FRIDAY WILL KEEP THE CWA DRY FOR THE MOST
PART. ONLY MENTIONED SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST CENTRAL
GEORGIA FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON...CLOSER TO THE BETTER MOISTURE.

11

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
/ISSUED 417 AM EDT THU AUG 1 2013/
WEAK COLD FRONT COULD SHIFT BACK A LITTLE NORTHWARD FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWFA...AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...SO HAVE ONLY LINGERED POPS INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. THE FRONT MAY PROVIDE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWFA DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS FOR
SATURDAY. THE NAM IS PRODUCING MORE PRECIP THAN THE GFS...THINK
THIS IS BECAUSE IT IS PICKING UP A SHORTWAVE IN THE NW FLOW. FOR
NOW...WILL TAKE A COMPROMISE FOR POPS.

BOUNDARY WILL SLIP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
MODELS ARE HAVING SOME DIFFERENCES FOR MAX TEMP VALUES BOTH
DAYS...BUT IF THE BOUNDARY IS OVERHEAD...THIS COULD BE MEAN MORE
PRECIP/CLOUDS SO HAVE BUMPED TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES.

A MORE DIURNAL PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. A FRONT MAY BEGIN TO IMPACT THE
REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
OVERALL CIGS ARE IFR TO MVFR HOWEVER SEEMS TO BE SOME HOLES IN THE
LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS THE TAF SITES. STILL POTENTIAL FOR THESE LOWER
CIGS SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WORSE CONDITIONS. SHOULD IMPROVE
THIS MORNING AND BECOME SCT TO BKN THIS AFTERNOON. SHRA HAS
SUBSIDED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH STILL A
CHANCE OF SHRA AT MCN. FOR THE AFTERNOON...BEST CHANCE OF TSRA IS
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA WITH THE MOST LIKELY CHANCE AT MCN...BUT
CHANCES ARE STILL ON THE LOW SIDE.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WIND. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON VSBYS. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON CIGS.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          89  68  90  71 /  40  10  10  10
ATLANTA         87  70  88  72 /  30  10  10  10
BLAIRSVILLE     83  62  85  66 /  40  10  10  10
CARTERSVILLE    87  66  89  69 /  20  10  10  10
COLUMBUS        91  74  92  74 /  50  20  10  10
GAINESVILLE     86  69  87  69 /  60  10  10  10
MACON           90  71  92  73 /  70  20  20  10
ROME            88  66  89  69 /  20  10  10  10
PEACHTREE CITY  88  67  89  70 /  30  10  10  10
VIDALIA         88  72  92  75 / 100  20  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...11

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
552 AM EDT THU AUG 1 2013

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-021200-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
552 AM EDT THU AUG 1 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN GEORGIA MAINLY THIS MORNING. DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE OVER
THE NORTH BY THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL HELP DIMINISH THE CHANCES
FOR STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH
AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
651 AM EDT THU AUG 01 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 AM     FLASH FLOOD      4 NNW TALKING ROCK      34.57N 84.53W
08/01/2013                   GILMER             GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SWIFT WATER RESCUE BEING PERFORMED AT A HOME ON AVERY
            DRIVE.

&&

NLIST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
949 AM EDT THU AUG 01 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       6 NE NELSON             34.44N 84.30W
08/01/2013  M4.43 INCH       PICKENS            GA   COCORAHS

            4.43 INCHES OF RAIN WAS MEASURED BY A COCORAHS OBSERVER.

&&

RWILLIS

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