Special Weather Statement, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
649 PM CDT FRI MAY 10 2013

.AVIATION...
MAIN CONCERN THIS EVENING WILL BE THE ONGOING CONVECTION AND MORE
THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM NOW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING CONVECTIVE WINDS OF
60 KNOTS OR GREATER. SO FAR SEEMS LIKE LARGE HAIL HAS BEEN
OBSERVED MORE THAN CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS. CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS UP
TO 35 KNOTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. CURRENT
WINDS OUT OF THE EAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL BECOME NORTH AT 6 TO
12 KNOTS FROM 03Z-06Z. CURRENT VFR CIGS WILL BECOME MVFR AFTER
06Z WITH THE CONTINUING THREAT FOR CONVECTION. HAVE ONLY INCLUDED
THE CURRENT CONVECTION IN TEMPO GROUPS AND WILL UPDATE FORECAST AS
FUTURE TRENDS BECOME BETTER DEFINED. AFTER 15Z SATURDAY EXPECT
NORTHERLY WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS AND CIGS BECOMING VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 534 PM CDT FRI MAY 10 2013/

UPDATE...
WE HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE ALL COUNTIES IN SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #156. THE WATCH WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT FRI MAY 10 2013/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE CONCHO VALLEY TO CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE INTO OUR NORTHEAST CORRIDOR AND EASTERN HILL
COUNTRY AREAS BY MID AFTERNOON. CONVECTION IS ALREADY FORMING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AS DESTABILIZATION
OCCURS. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU
AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON...MOVING THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA BY
MIDNIGHT OR EARLY MORNING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM AHEAD OF THE SAGGING FRONT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE 12Z TT 12-KM WRF MODEL SHOWS THE COLD
FRONT INTERSECTING A BROAD SWATH OF 80-100 MPH 300 MB. WINDS
SWEEPING EAST IN THE SUBTROPICAL JET. IN ADDITION...CAPES OF
1500-3000 J/KG COVER MUCH OF THE CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS
INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH UPPER LEVEL FORCING WITH THE JET WILL
RESULT IN A FEW OF THESE STORMS BECOMING SEVERE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. GIVEN EASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT COUPLED
WITH THE HIGH SPEED JET ALOFT...WILL PROMOTE A FAVORABLE SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AND EVEN A FEW
ISOLATED TORNADOES BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LIMITING
FACTOR WILL BE HOW MUCH OF THE INSTABILITY IN OUR PRESENT AIR-MASS
WAS USED UP IN THE PREVIOUS ACTIVITY...AND IN THE CURRENT ACTIVITY
OVER THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU. RAINFALL COULD BE EFFICIENT
TONIGHT GIVEN UPPER LEVEL FORCING...INSTABILITIES AND HEALTHY
PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS. AVERAGE 1 TO 2 INCH RAINS COULD OCCUR IN
STORMS WEST OF STATE HIGHWAY 281 WITH 1-2 INCH WITH ISOLATED 3 INCH
TOTALS EAST OF HIGHWAY 281. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S HILL
COUNTRY...60S ELSEWHERE. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 156 IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE REGION UNTIL 10 PM. AFTER
MIDNIGHT...MUCH OF THE AIR-MASS WOULD HAVE STABILIZED BUT OF COURSE
THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW REMAINING SEVERE STORMS OVER SOUTHERN
PORTIONS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. AS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS
SOUTH INTO THE REGION SATURDAY...MORE STABLE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH RAINS TAPERING OFF FROM THE NORTH. A FEW STORMS MAY
STILL OCCUR AS THE SUBTROPICAL JET EASES SOUTH OF THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 70S HILL COUNTRY TO
80S ELSEWHERE. THERE COULD BE A FEW SERRIANAS DEL BURRO MOUNTAIN
DEVELOPMENTS WHICH MAY ENTER INTO WESTERN PORTIONS DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY AS WELL. CONTINUED BUILDING OF THE RIDGE INTO SOUTH TEXAS
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 50S HILLS TO LOW 60S SOUTHERN
PORTIONS.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL BE BLOCKED
BY A BROAD UPPER LEVEL DIGGING TROUGH ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. ON SUNDAY WITH A WEAK COL ZONE ALOFT OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.  HIGHS SUNDAY NEAR 80 HILL COUNTRY...LOW TO MID
80S ELSEWHERE. AS THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE EAST MOVES FURTHER EAST...
SOUTHEAST FLOW AND MOISTURE WILL RETURN MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHERN EDWARDS AND WESTERN RIO GRANDE
PLAINS.  WITH THE UPPER LOW STILL IN PLACE AND SPINNING UP A FEW
DISTURBANCES OVER THE REGION TUESDAY DAYTIME HEATING IN AN
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR-MASS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. UNCERTAINTY
ABOUNDS AS TO THE MOVE OF THIS UPPER LOW...BUT THE GFS MODEL HAS
THE UPPER LOW LIFT NORTHEAST INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE
UPPER LOW WILL FILL AS THE TROUGH PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS BEHIND THE UPPER
TROUGH ON THURSDAY MAYBE A FEW CONVERGENT SHOWERS AND STORMS EAST
OF I-35. SIMILAR PATTERN NEXT FRIDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING OVER THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              62  83  57  83  58 /  60  20  10  -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  60  82  54  82  54 /  60  20  10  -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     61  83  56  84  55 /  60  20  10  -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            59  81  54  82  56 /  60  10  10  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           66  84  63  85  63 /  50  40  20  10  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        60  81  54  81  56 /  60  20  10  -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             63  83  57  84  58 /  60  30  10  -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        61  81  56  82  56 /  60  20  10  -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   66  83  60  84  60 /  60  30  10  -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       63  82  58  82  58 /  60  20  10  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           64  82  59  82  59 /  60  30  10  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
320 PM CDT FRI MAY 10 2013

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-112030-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
320 PM CDT FRI MAY 10 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THE COMBINATION OF UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES INTERACTING WITH A COLD
FRONT...AND AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL RESULT IN
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE.
ESTIMATED TIME FOR GREATEST ACTIVITY IS FROM 330 PM TO 10 PM THIS
EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY TONIGHT.

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