Special Weather Statement, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
730 PM CDT MON APR 29 2013

.UPDATE...
500 HPA LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. EXPECTED SCT SHRA AND TSRA TO CONTINUE
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH AND MOVE TO THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND THEN BECOME
PARTLY CLOUDY ON TUESDAY. ISOLATED AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST EDGE OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 PM CDT MON APR 29 2013/

DISCUSSION...

SEE AVIATION FOR 00Z TAFS.

AVIATION...
A WEAK LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...BRINGING MORE STABLE CONDITIONS NEAR AND WEST OF KAUS TO
KSAT. OVER THE EAST PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...SOME INSTABILITY
WILL BE LEFT IN WAKE OF THE LOW FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. TO THE NORTH...A
S/W TROF OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE LOW PRESSURE TO INCREASE ACROSS
WEST AND NORTHWEST TEXAS...AND PROVIDE AN INCREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FOR MODERATE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
WINDS TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING. THROUGH 03Z 5 THSD SCT WITH CIGS NEAR AND ABOVE 10 THSD FT
ARE EXPECTED...WITH SCT SHRA AND TSRA...WHILE TO THE WEST IN VCNTY
OF KDRT VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. THE SHRA AND TSRA ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER 03Z. MVFR CIGS OF 1 THSD TO 2 THSD BKN
ARE EXPECTED VCNTY OF KAUS TO KSAT AND KSSF AFTER 05Z...AND WILL
SPREAD TO THE WEST IN VCNTY OF KDRT AFTER 09Z. CIGS NEAR 700 TO
1000 FT WITH VSBYS 3 TO 6 MILES IN FOG IS EXPECTED FROM AFTER 10Z
TO 14Z FROM VCNTY OF KAUS TO KSAT AND KSSF. AFTER 15Z CIGS OF
2 THSD TO 3 THSD BKN ARE EXPECTED BECOMING 4 THSD TO 6 THSD SCT
AFTER 17Z WITH SCT CIRRUS ABOVE 25 THSD FT.  MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AFTER 04Z FROM VCNTY OF KAUS TO KSAT
AND KSSF AND VCNTY OF KDRT AFTER 08Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT MON APR 29 2013/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CONVECTION OVER OUR CWA AT
THIS TIME. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE UPPER FEATURE CONTINUES TOWARD THE EAST. ADJUSTED
MORNING SOUNDING FROM CORPUS CHRISTI SHOWS AROUND 1000 J/KG OF
CAPE WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SHEAR IS ALSO VARIED IN
DIRECTION...WIND DIRECTIONS VARY IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. STORMS
COULD BE STRONG AND AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. THIS UPPER SYSTEM WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY AND
OUR WEATHER WILL BECOME DOMINATED BY LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.
THIS WILL RETURN US TO LATE NIGHT/MORNING CLOUDINESS WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT
WARMER TUESDAY.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
WEDNESDAY WILL BE ABOUT THE SAME AS TUESDAY. BIG CHANGES WILL COME
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE CONSISTENT
WITH A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME...IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE ANY
SEVERE WEATHER. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE STRONG AND MAY
REQUIRE A WIND ADVISORY THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MUCH COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WILL BE NEAR RECORDS. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE COOLER MORNING. BY
SUNDAY THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW THE
WINDS TO SWITCH BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST LEADING TO A WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FIRE WEATHER...
THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WINDS THURSDAY
BEFORE THE DRY AIR MOVES IN. THEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THE DRY WILL
SETTLE OVER THE AREA AND THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP TO
CRITICAL LEVELS BOTH AFTERNOONS. THIS WILL MEAN ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              65  87  65  87  57 /  40  10   0   0  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  63  86  64  86  56 /  40  10   0   0  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     63  87  64  87  57 /  40  10   0   0  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            62  86  65  86  54 /  40  10   0   0  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           67  92  70  93  58 /  10  -    0   0  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        62  85  65  85  55 /  40  10   0   0  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             64  87  66  88  59 /  30  -    0   0  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        63  85  64  86  57 /  40  10   0   0  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   68  87  67  87  61 /  40  10   0   0  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       66  85  66  85  59 /  40  10   0   0  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           66  85  66  85  60 /  40  10   0   0  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...25
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...08
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...31

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
400 AM CDT MON APR 29 2013

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-300900-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
400 AM CDT MON APR 29 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

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