Special Weather Statement, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
313 PM CDT SUN MAR 31 2013

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
THE INTERACTION OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE...WEAK UPPER
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH...AND A WARM/MOIST AIRMASS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
HAS ENABLED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
EXPECTED PARTICULARLY ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. CAPE VALUES
APPROACHING 2500-3000 J/KG AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MID-LEVEL WNW-
RLY FLOW OF ABOUT 40 KTS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO REACH STRONG TO SEVERE LEVELS. LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT. THE QUICK RETURN OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL YIELD ANOTHER
MILD AND MUGGY MORNING. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. WEAK
RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY ENABLING SKIES
TO CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID-80S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION AND INTO THE LOW 90S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW ACROSS NRN CA/NRN NV WILL DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD AND ENHANCE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS. THE INCREASING
MOISTURE AND APPROACH OF THE UPPER LOW WILL LEAD TO CHANCES FOR
RAIN BEGINNING TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES
TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY AS
THE LOW MOVES INTO THE TX/OK PANHANDLES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS DRIER
AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. GIVEN THE
DEEP MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF
GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN...RAINFALL TOTALS FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL AVERAGE NEAR ONE HALF OF AN INCH ALONG THE
RIO GRANDE...1-1.5" ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE REGION...AND
APPROACHING 2 INCHES ACROSS EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. MOST AREAS
WILL WELCOME THE MUCH-NEEDED RAIN...BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WHICH MAY
CAUSE MINOR PROBLEMS ESPECIALLY ACROSS URBANIZED AREAS.

TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE INFLUENCED BY RAIN-
COOLING EFFECTS...BUT OTHERWISE ANTICIPATE HIGHS TO BE NEAR 80 ON
TUESDAY AND IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ON WEDNESDAY. NORTHERLY
WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA ON WEDNESDAY
WILL RESULT IN LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S THURSDAY MORNING.
CONTINUING WEAK CAA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION
WILL KEEP HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS NERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA TO THE MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. A WARMING
TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND WESTERLY FLOW
PREVAILS ALOFT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              63  86  64  80  60 /  30  10  30  50  80
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  60  85  63  79  59 /  40  -   30  50  80
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     62  86  64  80  59 /  40  -   30  50  80
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            60  83  62  77  57 /  20  10  30  50  80
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           66  90  67  84  61 /  10  10  30  60  60
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        61  82  63  77  57 /  30  10  30  50  80
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             65  88  64  83  59 /  20  10  30  60  70
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        61  85  64  79  60 /  40  -   30  50  80
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   62  84  63  80  61 /  40  -   20  50  80
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       64  85  65  80  61 /  30  -   30  50  80
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           64  86  63  81  61 /  30  -   30  50  80

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...01
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...25
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
410 PM CDT SUN MAR 31 2013

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-011200-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
410 PM CDT SUN MAR 31 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH THIS EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT STALLING
ACROSS THE REGION WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY WEATHER THREATS. THE
STRONGEST STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED BEFORE 10 PM CDT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS UP TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE INTERACTS WITH A COLD FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
400 PM CDT SUN MAR 31 2013

TXZ185-312130-
REAL-
400 PM CDT SUN MAR 31 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN REAL COUNTY UNTIL 430 PM
CDT...

AT 356 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR TUFF...OR 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF LEAKEY...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG
WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  LEAKEY...
  TUFF...
  RIO FRIO...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV
STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

THE HEAVY RAIN MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES...LOW WATER
CROSSINGS AND UNDERPASSES. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ACROSS FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 2986 9962 2964 9961 2962 9978 2979 9996
      2994 9975
TIME...MOT...LOC 2100Z 314DEG 23KT 2978 9980

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
445 PM CDT SUN MAR 31 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0425 PM     HAIL             5 E LEAKEY              29.72N  99.67W
03/31/2013  E1.00 INCH       REAL               TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1300171

JPB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
455 PM CDT SUN MAR 31 2013

TXZ203-204-312230-
MEDINA-UVALDE-
455 PM CDT SUN MAR 31 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN UVALDE AND WESTERN
MEDINA COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM CDT...

AT 451 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR UTOPIA...OR 12 MILES SOUTH OF VANDERPOOL...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG
WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

THIS STORM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ALONG FM 187 TOWARD SABINAL.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV
STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

THE HEAVY RAIN MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES...LOW WATER
CROSSINGS AND UNDERPASSES. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ACROSS FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 2944 9935 2932 9956 2956 9969 2962 9951
TIME...MOT...LOC 2154Z 330DEG 19KT 2954 9956