Severe Thunderstorm Warning 54, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1247 PM CDT TUE APR 2 2013

.AVIATION...
CHALLENGING FORECAST TODAY. CIGS ARE GENERALLY MVFR AND SHOULD
REMAIN THAT WAY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WE COULD SEE OCCASIONAL VFR.
EXPECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AFTER
ABOUT 01Z. SHOWERS LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND CIGS WILL
LOWER TO IFR. PRECIP SHOULD END MID-MORNING WEDNESDAY AND CIGS
IMPROVE TO MVFR BY LATE MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 833 AM CDT TUE APR 2 2013/

UPDATE...
ADJUSTED POPS FOR THE MORNING BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND
REMOVED THUNDER ALL BUT THE NE CWA WHERE ISOLATED THUNDER WAS LEFT IN
THE FORECAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CDT TUE APR 2 2013/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
WITH THE ONSET ON INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ALREADY UNDERWAY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ON FRONTAL FOCUS
AND THEREFORE POTENTIAL STORM STRENGTH AND RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THE
NEXT 36 HOURS. IN GENERAL THE SHORTER RANGE MODELS FAVOR HIGHER
TOTALS CONVERGING OVER EAST TX THIS AFTERNOON AND LESS RAINFALL
POTENTIAL FROM FRONTAL OVERRUNNING...WHILE THE LONGER RANGE MODELS
SHOW AN EQUAL EMPHASIS ON ENHANCED RAINFALL CHANCES HANGING BACK
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM AS IT OVERRUNS THE SHALLOW
FRONTAL ZONE. WOULD TYPICALLY FAVOR THE SHORT-RANGE SCENARIO...
EXCEPT THAT THE RUN-TO-RUN TRENDS OF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
REFLECT A SLOWING STORM SYSTEM AND FRONT. THUS A BLEND OF THE TWO
SCENARIOS IS USED FOR THE FORECAST...WITH ADMITTEDLY A SLIGHT WET
BIAS TO RESULT FROM THE PROLONGED RAIN CHANCES. ALTHOUGH THE QPF
REFLECTS STORM TOTAL RANGES GOING FROM 1/2 TO 2 INCHES FROM WEST
TO EAST RESPECTIVELY...THE EXPECTED RAINFALL IS MORE LIKELY TO FALL
INTO THE 1/4 TO 1 1/2 INCH RANGE. ISOLATED 3 INCH STORM TOTALS
WILL BE POSSIBLE...AS A FEW AREAS COULD SEE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
RAIN. THE SEWD MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW COULD PROMOTE SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT OVER WESTERN COUNTIES MAINLY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...WITH THE THREAT FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS POSSIBLY EXTENDING AS FAR EAST AS THE I-35 CORRIDOR SHOULD
THE FRONTAL FOCUS BECOME THE DOMINANT RAIN PRODUCER. AN ANY
EVENT...NEARLY ALL AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE AT LEAST A SMALL
AMOUNT OF MUCH NEEDED RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE
LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SLOWING SYSTEM SUGGESTS A
SLIGHTLY SLOWER CLEARING TREND WEDNESDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
BREEZY AND COOL CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL LOWER
TEMPERATURES TO BELOW NORMALS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE
PROLONGED DRYING BREEZE THURSDAY SHOULD LOWER AFTERNOON RH
VALUES...SOME PATCHY FOG WAS ADDED FOR FRIDAY MORNING SINCE WINDS
SHOULD BECOME LIGHT BY THEN AND MUCH OF THE LIGHT NORTH WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL BE ACROSS SOAKED SOILS. A GOOD MIXING DAY AND A
RETURN TO WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND MOISTURE TO INCREASE BY SATURDAY MORNING. A FLAT ZONAL PATTERN
OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD PROMOTE SOME MORNING CLOUDS AND OTHERWISE
SEASONALLY WARM AND BREEZY APRIL WEATHER. THE NEXT UPSTREAM SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO BE ADVERTISED AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH WHICH COULD
PROMOTE ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT BY MID-WEEK. THE GENERAL PATTERN
WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH SUGGESTS LESS SUPPORT FROM A SUBTROPICAL
JET...SO WILL VIEW THE NEXT POTENTIAL RAINFALL EVENT WITH SOME
SKEPTICISM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              64  71  50  71  47 /  80  70  30  -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  64  70  47  70  41 /  80  70  30  -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     65  73  48  74  43 /  70  60  30  -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            60  66  46  68  45 /  80  70  30  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           65  74  49  79  54 /  50  40  -    0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        63  68  45  68  42 /  80  70  30  10  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             65  74  46  77  44 /  50  50  20   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        64  72  48  73  43 /  80  60  30  -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   65  73  51  70  46 /  80  70  40  10  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       66  73  49  74  47 /  60  50  20  -    0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           66  75  50  76  46 /  60  50  20  -    0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...01
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
105 PM CDT TUE APR 2 2013

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-031815-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
105 PM CDT TUE APR 2 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY
BECOME MORE DOMINANT TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

THE THREAT OF STRONG STORMS MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER THE MAIN IMPACT WILL LIKELY BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...CAUSING LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
315 PM CDT TUE APR 02 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     HAIL             5 N MARBLE FALLS        30.65N  98.27W
04/02/2013  E0.75 INCH       BURNET             TX   PUBLIC

            HALF INCH TO PENNY SIZE HAIL.

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1300209

PM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
316 PM CDT TUE APR 02 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0310 PM     HAIL             2 E MARBLE FALLS        30.58N  98.24W
04/02/2013  M1.00 INCH       BURNET             TX   COCORAHS

            NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1300210

PM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
325 PM CDT TUE APR 02 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0312 PM     HAIL             4 SSE COTTONWOOD SHORES 30.51N  98.29W
04/02/2013  E2.75 INCH       BURNET             TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            GOLF TO BASEBALL SIZE HAIL AT INTERSECTION OF HWYS 71
            281

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1300211

JPB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
328 PM CDT TUE APR 02 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 PM     HAIL             2 E MARBLE FALLS        30.58N  98.24W
04/02/2013  M1.75 INCH       BURNET             TX   PUBLIC

            GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL.

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1300212

PM