Severe Thunderstorm Warning 149, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

671 
WWUS54 KEWX 310306
SVSEWX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1006 PM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

TXC091-209-310311-
/O.CAN.KEWX.SV.W.0149.000000T0000Z-131031T0330Z/
HAYS TX-COMAL TX-
1006 PM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL COMAL AND
CENTRAL HAYS COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

LAT...LON 3024 9801 3007 9782 2981 9824 2995 9837
TIME...MOT...LOC 0301Z 232DEG 16KT 2999 9814

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
922 PM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

.UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT ACROSS
MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR.
FINER RESOLUTION MODELS...00Z CRP SOUNDING DATA...AND BLENDED
TOTAL PRECIPITATION WATER PRODUCT COUPLED WITH SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST DEEP TROPICAL AIRMASS SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA.
INGREDIENTS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS OR THROUGH ABOUT 1 AM CDT THURSDAY...TRANSITIONING
INTO HEAVY RAINS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH NOON
THURSDAY FOR THE EASTERN PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 PM CDT WED OCT 30 2013/

AVIATION...
CURRENTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS.
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SCT CU AT 3K-4K BEFORE FILLING IN LATER THIS
EVENING AND BECOMING MVFR BETWEEN 02Z-04Z WITH INCREASING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR AND BORDERLINE IFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE
LIKELY WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OUT AHEAD
OF THE FRONT IN THE WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS CURRENTLY
RESIDING ACROSS THE REGION. THE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
OUTFLOWS FROM CONVECTION IN THE AREA WILL CAUSE CONVECTIVE GUSTS
OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS IN OR NEAR THE STRONGEST CONVECTION. TIMING FOR
STRONGEST CONVECTION MOST LIKELY DURING THE PERIOD FROM 04Z-
11Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
12Z AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. CURRENTLY HAVE THE FROPA REACHING KDRT AROUND 13Z...AND I-35
TAF SITES DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS 15Z-18Z. AFTER 20Z VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH NW WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. AFTER
SUNSET NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE TO NEAR 5 KNOTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CDT WED OCT 30 2013/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
ATMOSPHERE SETTING UP FOR POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN EVENT OVERNIGHT WITH
A THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING. ISOLATED-SCATTERED
CONVECTION TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED THIS EVENING AND PERSISTING
AS AN MCS NEAR THE I35 CORRIDOR INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AS
THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...DISTURBANCES
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH THE REMNANTS OF RAYMOND AND
MODERATE LOW LEVEL INFLOW FROM THE GULF. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
INTO THE FAR WESTERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY TOWARD
SUNRISE...AND TO THE I35 CORIDOOR BY LATE MORNING. A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL BECOME PARALLEL WITH THE SWLY FLOW
ALOFT WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TRAINING CELLS AND NEAR THE I35
CORRIDOR. MODELS ARE ON GOOD AGREEMENT ON SHOWING A SWATH OF 1-3.5
INCH QPF AMOUNTS ORIENTED SW-NE NEAR THE I35 CORRIDOR TONIGHT.
THEREFORE THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH LOOKS FINE...AND SEE NO
NEED TO MAKE ANY CHANGES. WILL KEEP MENTION OF SEVERE FOR THE
EVENING HOURS AS INDICATED IN THE SWOMCD AT 1245PM. HAVE INCREASED
QPF TOTALS FROM 7PM TO NOON THURSDAY TO 1-2.5 INCHES WITH HIGHEST
AMOUNTS OVER WILLIAMSON INTO TRAVIS COUNTIES...AND CONTINUED
MENTION OF ISOLATED 5 INCHES.

SHOWERS/STORMS ENDING RAPIDLY FROM THE WEST THURSDAY MORNING AFTER
SUNRISE WITH HEAVY RAIN THREAT ENDING BY NOON...EXCEPT LINGERING
CONVECTION OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS EARLY AFTERNOON. ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY DUE TO LOW HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY WINDS.
OTHERWISE CLEAR AND COOLER THURSDAY NIGHT 40S HILL COUNTRY TO LOW
TO MID 50S SOUTH.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
DRY PLEASANT WEATHER(COOL NIGHTS/MILD-WARM DAYS) INDICATED FOR
FRIDAY-SATURDAY AS W-NWLY FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
FRIDAY...GIVES WAY TO RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE SATURDAY.
INCREASING CLOUDS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES
EAST OF TX AND SWLY FLOW ONCE AGAIN BRINGS PACIFIC MOISTURE ACROSS
MEXICO IN WEST TEXAS WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FROM THE WEST
LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WIDESPREAD...POSSIBLE HEAVY
RAIN EVENT EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              72  81  51  82  52 / 100  40  -    0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  72  81  45  80  47 / 100  40  -    0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     72  82  47  81  48 / 100  50  -    0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            68  78  48  80  48 /  80  30  -    0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           64  82  52  84  51 /  60  10  -    0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        70  80  47  80  47 /  90  40  -    0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             72  84  48  84  49 /  90  30  -    0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        72  80  47  80  48 / 100  40  -    0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   75  82  52  82  54 /  90  60  -    0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       73  83  50  84  51 /  90  40  -    0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           74  84  51  84  52 /  90  50  -    0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...
COMAL...DE WITT...FAYETTE...GILLESPIE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...
HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...TRAVIS...
WILLIAMSON...WILSON.

&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
518 PM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-312230-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
518 PM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...A COLD FRONT...AND DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL CONVERGE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT. SCATTERED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS EVENING...
THEN BECOME MORE NUMEROUS LATE TONIGHT ALONG THE COLD FRONT.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT ACROSS THE COUNTIES
OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM MOUNTAIN
HOME TO BANDERA TO SAN ANTONIO TO KENEDY. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS UP TO
5 INCHES.

LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT FROM LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH NOON THURSDAY WHERE A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTHEAST
OF A MOUNTAIN HOME TO BANDERA TO SAN ANTONIO TO KENEDY LINE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY.