Severe Thunderstorm Warning 139, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
255 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM NEAR DENTON TO SAN ANGELO TO
FORT STOCKTON WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE ATMOSPHERE IS QUITE
UNSTABLE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SOUTH
HAVE BROUGHT MOIST GULF AIR WITH DEW POINTS AROUND 70. COLD AIR IN
THE MID-LEVELS HAS STEEPENED LAPSE RATES. SPC MESO-ANALYSIS SHOWS CAPE
ABOVE 3000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECTING STORMS
TO MOVE IN TO OUR CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY STORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE AND THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH A SLIGHT THREAT FOR TORNADOES. MOST
CONVECTION SHOULD BE OVER BY 2AM...BUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
COULD LINGER OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THE FRONT
WILL DISSIPATE WEDNESDAY AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF
TO THE EAST. THIS WILL END ANY PRECIP CHANCES. A MID TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY
EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF
THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL PUT US BACK
INTO THE WARM...MOIST PATTERN WITH OVERNIGHT/MORNING CLOUDS OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON/EVENING
CLEARING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
NEARLY ZERO. THE ONE POSSIBILITY FOR ANY RAIN IS A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MODELS MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER PATTERN FRIDAY/SATURDAY. BOTH
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A CHANCE FOR PRECIP OVER THE WESTERN PART OF
THE CWA. HOWEVER...HAVE DISCOUNTED THIS SINCE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE SHALLOW AND UPPER RIDGE LOOKS STRONG.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              68  92  71  93  72 /  40  -    0   0  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  68  91  69  92  70 /  40  -    0   0  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     68  92  70  93  71 /  40  -    0   0  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            64  90  68  91  69 /  40  -    0   0  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           71  97  74  98  75 /  10  10   0   0  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        66  89  71  90  72 /  40  -    0   0  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             69  95  71  96  72 /  30  -    0   0  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        69  90  70  91  71 /  40  -    0   0  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   74  91  73  91  74 /  50  10   0   0  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       70  92  73  93  74 /  40  -    0   0  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           70  92  72  93  73 /  40  -    0   0  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...31

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
411 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-221200-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
411 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF A LINE
FROM LAMPASAS TO ROUND ROCK TO THORNDALE. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM COTULLA TO
CONCAN TO PLEASANTON TO HALLETTSVILLE. THIS INCLUDES THE SAN
ANTONIO AND AUSTIN METRO AREAS. THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS ARE FOR
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...WITH A SECONDARY THREAT FOR
ISOLATED TORNADOES. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1142 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-211845-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...DEL RIO...
ROCKSPRINGS...LEAKEY...KERRVILLE...BANDERA...FREDERICKSBURG...
BOERNE...BLANCO...SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN...BASTROP...GIDDINGS...
BRACKETTVILLE...UVALDE...HONDO...SAN ANTONIO...NEW BRAUNFELS...
SEGUIN...LOCKHART...LA GRANGE...EAGLE PASS...CRYSTAL CITY...
PEARSALL...PLEASANTON...FLORESVILLE...KARNES CITY...GONZALES...
CUERO...HALLETTSVILLE...CARRIZO SPRINGS
1142 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

...EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS POISED TO ERUPT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING...

RICH LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
COLD AIR ALOFT WILL RESULT IN AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BEGINNING BY EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AS AN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP RAPIDLY BY
LATE AFTERNOON...QUICKLY BECOMING SEVERE AS THE FRONT ENCOUNTERS
THIS UNSTABLE AIR MASS. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE FROM LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS...HOWEVER WITH THE EXTREME
INSTABILITY PRESENT...ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT. MUCH
OF THE EASTERN HALF OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...MAINLY EAST OF A
KERRVILLE TO CARRIZO SPRINGS LINE...WILL BE AFFECTED FROM LATE
AFTERNOON UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. IN
ADDITION...RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY AVERAGE 1 TO 3 INCHES WITHIN THE
HEAVIEST STORMS PRODUCING SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING.

HEIGHTENED CONCERN EXISTS ALONG AND NORTH OF A BURNET TO AUSTIN TO
GIDDINGS LINE THIS EVENING...WHERE THE MOST UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL
RESIDE. THIS AREA WILL BE MOST AT RISK FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES.

THE WEATHER SYSTEM SHOULD EXIT THE REGION BY EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH HEAVY RAINS AND SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS MOVING EAST
OF THE REGION.

LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER UPDATES
ON THIS SEVERE WEATHER EVENT. ALSO...GO TO WEATHER.GOV/AUSTIN FOR
THE LATEST INFORMATION...FORECASTS AND WARNINGS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
252 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

TXZ171-172-212030-
BURNET-LLANO-
252 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN BURNET AND NORTHEASTERN
LLANO COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM CDT...

AT 247 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS HAVE
DETERMINED THAT A THUNDERSTORM WAS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING NEAR TOW...OR 5
MILES NORTHWEST OF BUCHANAN DAM...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  LAKE VICTOR...
  SUNNYLANE...
  WATSON...
  U.S. HIGHWAY 281...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

THE HEAVY RAIN MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES...LOW WATER
CROSSINGS AND UNDERPASSES. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ACROSS FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 3092 9782 3073 9852 3091 9856 3094 9852
      3094 9842 3095 9846 3098 9846 3104 9840
      3105 9792
TIME...MOT...LOC 1951Z 243DEG 36KT 3088 9843

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