Severe Thunderstorm Warning 116, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
650 AM CDT FRI MAY 10 2013

.AVIATION...
A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY
WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD THIS MORNING...WITH TSRA
EXPECTED AT KAUS/KSAT/KSSF THROUGH 13/14Z. BEHIND THIS INITIAL
ACTIVITY...A GENERAL LULL IN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE MORNING. HOWEVER...PERIODIC SHRA IS EXPECTED GENERALLY EAST
OF A LINE FROM KECU TO KHDO TO KPEZ. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL
INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT. LOW CIGS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING WITH A SLOW IMPROVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
CONDITIONS AT KDRT ARE EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY BETTER...WITH
LESS AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS AND AN EARLIER RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.
RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL CAUSE SFC WINDS THIS MORNING TO
GENERALLY BE NE TO NLY 10 TO 15 KTS. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL MOSTLY
BE E TO NELY NEAR 10 KTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 25 KTS IN/NEAR CONVECTION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT FRI MAY 10 2013/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
BRIEF LULL IN CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS S CENTRAL TX.
HOWEVER REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM LAST NIGHTS STORMS/AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...S-SELY 25-35 KNOT LOW LEVEL INFLOW...AS
WELL AS UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE STRONG CHANCES FOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ALREADY STRONG NEW
CONVECTION SKIRTING THE FAR NWRN CWA IN VICINITY OF AN OLD OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY. EXPECTED THE CONVECTION TO SINK/DEVELOP SOUTHWARD INTO
THE CWA DURING THE DAY WITH THE COLD FRONT. THERE WILL BE A
CONTINUED THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS AS AIRMASS REMAINS MODERATELY
UNSTABLE WITH MAIN THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL. SCATTERED POST FRONTAL
SHOWERS/ STORMS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS
THE SRN CWA...AS MORE STABLE AIR FILTERS INTO THE NRN CWA.
SLIGHTLY COOLER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AS WINDS
SHIFT TO NELY.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
DECREASING RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE UPPER
LOW TO THE WEST SINKS SOUTHWARD AND THE DISTURBANCES PASS FURTHER
SOUTH ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...ALTHOUGH THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
COULD STILL SEE ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOP OVER THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS
AND CROSS THE RIO GRANDE BEFORE DISSIPATING. RAINS CHANCES INCREASE
AGAIN BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW OVER MEXICO
BEGINS TO LIFT NEWD ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS...TAPERING OFF FROM THE
WEST WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
BEHIND THE EJECTING LOW/TROF. NO POPS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY-
FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE KEEPS SOUTH TEXAS UNDER GENERAL
SUBSIDENCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              81  61  80  58  83 /  60  30  20  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  81  60  79  55  82 /  60  30  20  10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     83  62  80  57  83 /  60  30  30  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            79  59  79  55  81 /  60  30  20  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           91  67  82  64  85 /  30  40  40  20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        79  60  79  55  81 /  60  30  20  -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             85  64  79  59  83 /  50  40  30  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        82  61  79  57  81 /  60  30  20  10  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   83  65  80  61  83 /  50  40  30  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       82  63  79  59  82 /  60  40  30  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           83  64  81  61  82 /  60  40  30  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...01

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
433 AM CDT FRI MAY 10 2013

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-110945-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
433 AM CDT FRI MAY 10 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THE COMBINATION OF UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES INTERACTING WITH A COLD
FRONT...AND AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL RESULT IN
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE SEVERE WITH THE
PRIMARY THREAT OF LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

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