River Flood Warning 14, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
646 AM CDT FRI SEP 20 2013

.AVIATION...
GENERALLY MVFR CIGS...OCCASIONALLY IFR CIGS WITH SCT TO NUMEROUS
SHRA/TSRA THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST TODAY...SHIFT TO NORTHEAST AFT 00Z...THEN TO NORTH BY
12Z SAT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 AM CDT FRI SEP 20 2013/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THIS MORNING A MOIST AND UNSTABLE TROPICAL AIRMASS HAS OVERSPREAD
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE LATEST AWIPS BLENDED TOTAL PWAT PRODUCT
DEPICTED VALUES OF 2.1 TO 2.4 INCHES. THIS IS A GOOD INDICATOR FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL. THE COMBINATION OF PACIFIC TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM
THE REMNANTS OF MANUEL...DEEPENING GULF MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE
ALONG AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY. WE WILL EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO
INCLUDE ALL OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND ADJACENT COUNTIES ALONG THE
I-35 CORRIDOR FROM SAN ANTONIO NORTHEASTWARD. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED 6 INCH AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BE HIGHEST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY AS THE WEAK
FRONT DRIFTS SOUTHWARD INTO THE HILL COUNTRY AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS PATTERN WILL
RESULT IN THE TRAINING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL SHIFT
SOUTHWARD TO THE COAST ON SATURDAY AS A SFC LOW FORMS OVER SE
TEXAS. HIGHS TODAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND RAINFALL.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING OUT OF OUR SE COUNTIES
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS BECOMES SITUATED
TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWFA. A DRY WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
TRANSITIONS TO THE SOUTHWEST. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL SEE A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WITH LOWER TO MID 90S EXPECTED BY THE LATTER HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. THE WARMUP MAY BE AFFECTED BY SOIL MOISTURE. HIGHER SOIL
MOISTURE VALUES WILL SLOW THE WARMUP.

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BANDERA...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...COMAL...EDWARDS...
GILLESPIE...HAYS...KENDALL...KERR...KINNEY...LLANO...MAVERICK...
MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON.

&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...13
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
551 AM CDT FRI SEP 20 2013

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-211100-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
551 AM CDT FRI SEP 20 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 35 AND ALONG AND NORTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 90. THIS
INCLUDES THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS...EDWARDS PLATEAU...HILL
COUNTRY...AND I-35 CORRIDOR THROUGH 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY WITH AVERAGE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES AND A FEW SPOTS RECEIVING UP TO 6 INCHES. FLASH FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE AND RIVERS WILL RISE AND MAY FLOOD AS WELL. TURN AROUND...
DON'T DROWN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

RAIN WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY ON SATURDAY MORNING. NO ADDITIONAL
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
STORM SPOTTERS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO PROVIDE HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH
FLOOD REPORTS FROM 3 PM TODAY THROUGH 7 AM SATURDAY. ONLY REPORT
IF YOU CAN DO IT SAFELY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
813 AM CDT FRI SEP 20 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 AM     FLASH FLOOD      COMSTOCK                29.68N 101.17W
09/20/2013                   VAL VERDE          TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ROAD CLOSED AT JUNCTION OF HWY 163 AND 90W WITH 1 TO 2
            FEET OF WATER OVER ROADWAY

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1300556

SBS

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