Flash Flood Watch 8, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1145 PM CDT SAT SEP 28 2013

.AVIATION...
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDS ALONG I35 AND THIS THE FOCUS OF
RAINFALL TONIGHT. CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AT I35 TERMINALS WITH
RAIN. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME TSRA AT TIMES. EXPECT THESE
CONDITIONS TO LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. RAIN HAS ENDED AT DRT...BUT
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER THERE. EITHER WAY
CIG SHOULD DROP TO MVFR NEAR SUNRISE SUNDAY. NO IMPROVEMENT AT ALL
TERMINALS UNTIL AROUND NOON SUNDAY WHEN CIGS SHOULD RISE TO VFR.
EXPECTING CLEARING SKIES EARLY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT SAT SEP 28 2013/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
THIS AFTERNOON SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WERE OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AS SFC HEATING
DESTABILIZED THE TROPICAL AIRMASS. A COLD FRONT WAS ALSO MOVING
SOUTHEAST AND HAD MOVED INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY
SAGS SOUTHWARD PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. PWATS WILL BE
AROUND 2 INCHES AS THE NORTHERN STREAM S/W TAPS INTO TROPICAL
PACIFIC MOISTURE IN ADDITION TO THE LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE. THIS
MEANS THAT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL
AVERAGE BETWEEN ONE QUARTER AND ONE HALF INCH WITH ISOLATED TOTALS
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE. DUE TO ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS...ONLY
MINOR FLOODING OF STREETS AND STREAMS IN URBAN AREAS IS EXPECTED
DUE TO RUNOFF FROM IMPERVIOUS SURFACES. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS AND ATTENDANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVE SLOWLY
TOWARDS THE COAST. LOWS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL DUE TO
CLOUDS AND PCPN.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST ON
MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS FINALLY SHIFTS TO THE SE OF
OUR REGION. TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY AS A WEAK RIDGE
ALOFT BUILDS WESTWARD FROM MEXICO. SEA-BREEZE SHOWERS RETURN ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A SFC LOW DEEPENS OVER THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE MONDAY THRU
FRIDAY. THE FIRST STRONG COLD FRONT OF THE FALL SEASON WILL
ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE FROPA. HIGHS ON SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO MID 80S
SOUTHWEST WITH NORTHERLY WINDS ON 15 TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              74  88  71  89  71 /  80  60  20  20  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  72  87  69  88  68 /  70  60  30  20  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     71  88  70  89  69 /  60  50  20  20  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            69  84  66  88  68 /  80  50  20  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           71  85  71  90  71 /  20  20  10  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        70  85  67  88  68 /  80  60  20  20  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             72  89  69  90  69 /  60  40  20  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        71  88  69  88  68 /  70  50  30  20  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   75  88  73  89  72 /  60  50  40  30  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       73  88  71  89  72 /  60  50  20  20  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           74  89  72  90  73 /  60  40  20  20  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...02
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
230 PM CDT SAT SEP 28 2013

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-291200-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
230 PM CDT SAT SEP 28 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL MOVE
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL ENHANCE GULF MOISTURE
ADVECTION ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS OUR
AREA WILL COMBINE WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO PROMOTE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. DUE TO THE
MOIST AIRMASS SPREAD OVER OUR AREA...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE. RAINFALL TOTALS FOR TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE ONE INCH OR LESS...BUT A FEW LOCATIONS MAY SEE ONE TO THREE
INCHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
SUNDAY MORNING WITH RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING TO DECREASE DURING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY
AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT WASHES OUT OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS/UPPER
TEXAS COAST. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER
EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1137 PM CDT SAT SEP 28 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1137 PM     FLASH FLOOD      PFLUGERVILLE            30.44N 97.62W
09/28/2013                   TRAVIS             TX   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTED FLOODING OF FM 685.

&&

BRUEWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
144 AM CDT SUN SEP 29 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0134 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4 W RIO MEDINA          29.43N  98.95W
09/29/2013  M2.50 INCH       MEDINA             TX   PUBLIC

            2.50 INCHES OF RAIN IN 90 MINUTES.

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1300574

BF