Flash Flood Warning 25, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1155 AM CDT WED JUL 17 2013

.AVIATION...
A VERY MOIST SELY TROPICAL INFLOW FROM THE GULF INTO S TX WILL
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THEREFORE VARIABLE CONDITIONS
PREVAILING WITH IFR-MVFR CIGS OFTEN GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS IN
THE AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY PREVAILING IN
THE OVERNIGHT INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL
QUICKLY LOWER TO MVFR-IFR IN THE SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA THRU THE
PERIOD. E-SELY WINDS PREVAILING AT 5-15 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT WED JUL 17 2013/

UPDATE...
POPS CURRENTLY APPEAR A BIT OVERDONE FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS BASED
ON LATE MORNING RADAR LOOPS...BUT CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE
COASTAL BEND SUGGESTS MUCH MORE RAIN COVERAGE WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. FINER RESOLUTION MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A HIGH CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THUS THE
MORNING PACKAGE FOR RAIN AND TEMPERATURES APPEARS ON TRACK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 AM CDT WED JUL 17 2013/

AVIATION...
SCT-NUMEROUS SHRA/ISOLD TSRA CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY INTO EVENING.
HAVE TEMPO GROUPS I-35 TAFS 14Z-21Z AND KDRT 19Z-23Z. SHRA/TSRA
DECREASE LATE EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT AS AIRMASS STABILIZES AND
THEN ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA REDEVELOP THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH HAVE LEFT
MENTION OUT OF TAFS DUE UNCERTAINTY ON LOCATION...CAN NOT RULE
OUT SHRA/TSRA AT TAF SITES TONIGHT OR THURSDAY AS AIRMASS REMAINS
MOIST. LIFR/IFR CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING LIFT TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EVENING...EXCEPT LOCAL MVFR CIGS IN/NEAR SHRA/TSRA.
REDEVELOPMENT OF IFR/MVFR CIGS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. ELY WINDS 5 TO 12 KTS WILL PREVAIL. EXCEPT GUSTS TO 30
KTS IN AND NEAR SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT WED JUL 17 2013/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AND THEN OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE
PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE
FROM 1/4 TO 3/4 INCH WITH LOCALIZED 1 TO 2 INCHES.

AS THE UPPER LOW LEVEL SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO EARLY THIS
MORNING MOVES TO THE SOUTHWEST AND AWAY FROM SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
ANOTHER LOW TO MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AND OVER SOUTH TEXAS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 2
TO 2.15 INCHES ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND OVER THE COASTAL
PLAINS PER GROUND-BASED SATELLITE READINGS AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAINS AND MOVE INLAND FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTHEAST. THERE MAY BE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATER TONIGHT INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT OVERALL...WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE
IMPROVING ON THURSDAY ACROSS MOST AREAS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SEA-BREEZE ENHANCED CONVECTION ACROSS THE COASTAL AND RIO GRANDE
PLAINS.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE DOMINATING THE REGION LATER IN THE
WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH ONLY SEA-BREEZE ENHANCED
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. A WARMING TREND IS ON THE WAY FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS THANKS TO THE UPPER RIDGE. MOSTLY DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              88  74  95  74  98 /  60  30  20  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  89  72  95  71  97 /  60  30  20  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     85  71  93  71  95 /  60  30  20  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            81  72  91  73  92 /  60  30  20  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           87  74  89  75  92 /  70  50  40  20  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        86  72  94  73  95 /  60  30  20  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             88  73  93  73  95 /  70  40  30  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        85  73  93  72  96 /  60  30  20  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   90  74  98  74  96 /  60  30  20  10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       85  75  93  75  95 /  60  30  20  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           85  73  93  74  95 /  70  30  30  10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...01
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...08
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
430 AM CDT WED JUL 17 2013

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-181000-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
430 AM CDT WED JUL 17 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO SOUTH TEXAS WILL INTERACT
WITH A MOIST AIRMASS TO GENERATE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE
MAIN THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ISOLATED RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES MAY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING
AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.