Severe Thunderstorm Warning 97, NWS El Paso, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
523 AM MDT WED JUL 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE HEAVY RAIN TO THE
AREA TODAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS WEST OF THE
RIO GRANDE. OUR RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE COMING
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THIS
WEEK. NEXT WEEK WE WILL SEE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE HELP DRY
US OUT A LITTLE AND WARM US UP.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
OUR MOIST WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST ONE
MORE DAY. CURRENTLY WE HAVE ABUNDANT MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE
ATMOSPHERE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.4 TO 1.6 ARE COMMON
ACROSS THE AREA. YESTERDAY SAW MANY LOCATIONS WEST OF THE RIO
GRANDE RECEIVE SOME GOOD RAINFALL TOTALS...0.50 TO 1.0 INCH WERE
COMMON. A FEW SPOTS PICKED UP 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN. NOW NORMALLY
AFTER A WIDE SPREAD RAIN EVENT LIKE THIS WE WOULD EXPECT TO HAVE A
DOWN DAY AS THE WET GROUND AND LEFT OVER DEBRIS CLOUD HELD
TEMPERATURES DOWN. BUT CURRENTLY THERE IS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND THIS TROUGH WILL DRIFT
SLOWLY TO THE NORTH AND HELP FIRE OFF NUMEROUS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. SINCE SO MUCH OF THE AREA WEST OF THE RIO
GRANDE HAS RECEIVED A LOT OF RAIN IN THE LAST WEEK SO MUCH OF THE
GROUND IS SATURATED AND SINCE THE HIGH PW VALUES WILL ALLOW FOR
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES...I HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
LOCATIONS MAINLY EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE. THE GFS IS STILL THE MOST
BULLISH ON PRECIPITATION...BUT BOTH THE ECMWF AND NAM BRING DECENT
RAINFALL TOTALS INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA. THE UPPER LOW
WILL DRIFT AWAY ON THURSDAY BUT WITH SO MUCH MOISTURE NEAR THE
SURFACE WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION WE WILL SEE OUR AFTERNOON HIGHS RUNNING A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEK.

NEXT WEEK UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN SOME WHAT
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL REDUCE...BUT NOT ELIMINATE OUR RAIN
CHANCES AND IT WILL HELP GET OUR AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK
TO NEAR OR EVEN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE GFS MODEL WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED AS IT BRINGS YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO
THE AREA FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AND REALLY RAMPS UP THE
POPS. FOR NOW NEITHER THE DGEX NOR THE ECMWF HAVE A SIMILAR
FEATURE...BUT RATHER A DECENT RIDGE ALOFT SO I HAVE LEFT THE GFS
ASIDE AS AN OUTLIER...OF COURSE THAT IS WHAT I SAID ABOUT THE GFS
YESTERDAY AND IT ENDED UP BEING A LITTLE BETTER WITH YESTERDAY'S
CONVECTION...SO WE WILL WAIT AND SEE WHAT FUTURE MODEL RUN'S
BRING.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 24/12Z-25/12Z
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM THAT IS JUST TO OUR SOUTH WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND BRING WITH IT MORE RAIN
CHANCES...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE. LIKE THE LAST COUPLE
OF DAYS WE WILL SEE DEBRIS CLOUDS THIS MORNING. WE WILL SEE SCT-
BKN120 CLOUDS THROUGH LATE MORNING. AFTER NOON CONVECTION WILL
HELP DEVELOP CEILINGS AROUND BKN080 MAINLY WEST OF THE RIO
GRANDE...EAST OF THE RIO IT WILL BE MORE LIKE SCT-BKN080. STORM
MOTIONS WILL BE PRETTY SLOW TO THE NORTHWEST. VERY HEAVY RAINS
COULD CREATE SOME ISOLATED LIFR VISIBILITIES...ALSO BE AWARE THAT
THUNDERSTORMS COULD CREATE SOME STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MORE RAIN ON THE WAY TODAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM JUST
SOUTH OF THE BORDER WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH AND HELP GENERATE MORE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. A FEW STORMS MAY
PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN. OUR RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. NEEDLESS TO SAY WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
GOOD RH RECOVERIES EACH MORNING WITH MIN RH'S RUNNING WELL ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS. WINDS WILL NOT BE A FACTOR THIS WEEK ACCEPT IN
AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS WHICH CAN PRODUCE STRONG AND ERRATIC
OUTFLOW WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 89  73  92  73  92 /  50  50  30  30  20
SIERRA BLANCA           88  69  93  70  90 /  50  40  30  30  20
LAS CRUCES              88  68  89  69  90 /  70  70  40  30  30
ALAMOGORDO              89  69  92  70  91 /  50  50  40  30  20
CLOUDCROFT              64  49  68  51  67 /  50  50  40  30  40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   87  67  88  68  89 /  60  70  40  30  30
SILVER CITY             81  62  81  62  82 /  70  70  50  40  40
DEMING                  88  67  87  67  88 /  70  70  40  30  30
LORDSBURG               88  66  87  67  88 /  70  70  40  40  30
WEST EL PASO METRO      88  73  91  74  91 /  50  70  40  30  20
DELL CITY               92  69  94  70  94 /  50  50  30  30  20
FORT HANCOCK            91  72  96  72  94 /  50  40  30  30  20
LOMA LINDA              83  66  87  67  86 /  50  50  30  30  20
FABENS                  89  72  92  73  93 /  50  50  30  30  20
SANTA TERESA            88  70  90  71  91 /  60  70  40  30  20
WHITE SANDS HQ          88  71  90  72  90 /  60  70  40  30  20
JORNADA RANGE           87  66  89  67  90 /  70  70  40  30  30
HATCH                   85  68  86  70  87 /  60  70  40  30  30
COLUMBUS                88  70  88  68  88 /  70  70  40  30  30
OROGRANDE               89  69  92  70  92 /  50  50  30  30  20
MAYHILL                 73  56  76  58  75 /  50  50  40  30  30
MESCALERO               76  54  79  56  78 /  50  50  40  30  40
TIMBERON                73  56  75  58  75 /  50  50  40  30  30
WINSTON                 79  59  80  60  79 /  60  70  50  40  40
HILLSBORO               83  64  83  65  84 /  70  70  40  40  30
SPACEPORT               87  67  87  68  88 /  60  70  40  30  30
LAKE ROBERTS            80  60  81  61  81 /  70  70  50  40  40
HURLEY                  83  63  82  63  84 /  70  70  40  40  40
CLIFF                   89  65  87  65  89 /  70  70  40  40  40
MULE CREEK              84  59  83  59  84 /  70  70  40  40  30
FAYWOOD                 82  64  81  65  83 /  70  70  40  40  30
ANIMAS                  86  67  85  67  86 /  70  70  40  40  20
HACHITA                 87  66  86  67  86 /  70  70  40  40  30
ANTELOPE WELLS          84  65  84  65  86 /  70  70  40  30  30
CLOVERDALE              80  63  80  63  81 /  50  60  40  40  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 AM MDT THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR NMZ401>411.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 AM MDT THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR TXZ418.

&&

BRICE