Severe Thunderstorm Warning 93, NWS El Paso, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
133 PM MDT MON JUL 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WE CAN EXPECT A WEAK MONSOONAL PATTERN FOR MOST OF THE WORK WEEK.
IN THIS CASE THE PATTERN FAVORS HEAVIER RAINFALL FOR AREAS FROM
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WEST...BUT AFTERNOON OR NIGHTTIME
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR THE WEEKEND...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL FRILT WITH OUR AREA
WHICH SHOULD SERVE TO DRAW ADDITIONAL TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION AND RESULT IN AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

TEMPERATURES DURING UPCOMING WEEK WILL RUN WITH A FEW DEGREES OF
NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER HIGH IS BEGINNING TO BUILD EAST TO COVER THE CWA FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEK. INVERTED TROUGH SLIDING WEST OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
MAY PROVIDE A LITTLE EXTRA DYNAMICS/MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER.
LAST AVBL HRRR AND 12Z SPC 4KM RUN BOTH SHOW CLUSTER OF STORMS
IMPACTING SW PORTIONS OF AREA TONIGHT...SO HAVE RAISED POPS IN
THAT AREA,

OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY A LOW GRADE MONSOONAL PATTERN THROUGH
DAYTIME FRIDAY. THERE MAY BE AN UPTICK OF CONVECTION WEDNESDAY
WHERE THE ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER HIGH AND THE INVERTED TROUGH
ALLOWS A LITTLE EXTRA MOISTURE AND REDUCED STABILITY OVER THE AREA.

THE LARGER QUESTION FOR ME IS WHETHER A BACKDOOR FRONT MAKES IT
INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. WEEKEND RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF WERE
VERY AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING THE FRONT INTO THE AREA. LATER RUNS OF
THE GFS IN PARTICULAR HAVE BACKED AWAY FROM FROPA OVER THE AREA...
HOWEVER CMC 12Z RUN STILL HAS A STRONG PASSAGE. SINCE I HAVE LITTLE
TRUST IN GFS HANDLING OF BACKDOORS THIS FAR OUT AND THAT SURFACE
TROUGHING WILL ALLOW A CHANNEL OF MOISTURE TO MOVE TOWARD THE
FRONT REGARDLESS OF ITS FINAL POSITION...I HAVE BUMPED POPS UP
FOR THE WEEKEND AFTERNOONS. IF THE FRONT MAKES IT INTO THE REGION
THERE WOULD LIKELY BE AN INCREASE FLOOD RISK AND POSSIBLE SEVERE
WEATHER AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 23/00Z-24/00Z.
SCATTERED TSRA THRU 06Z OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED TSRA IN THE LOWLANDS. STORMS WILL TEND TO DRIFT TOWARDS
THE W OR WSW. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF BRIEF EXCURSIONS INTO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN AND AROUND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE REGION WITH
AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL RESULT
IN SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. CLOSER INSPECTION REVEALS A WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCE TRACKING SLOWLY WESTWARD TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO. THIS WILL LIKELY ENHANCE STORM CHANCES NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND AREAS WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL EVENTUALLY EXUDE IT'S INFLUENCE
FURTHER NORTH INTO THE REGION MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE RIDGE BEGINS
TO WEAKEN. AS A RESULT A GREATER COVERAGE OF WETTING RAINFALL WILL
BE POSSIBLE AREA WIDE. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

WITH LOW LEVEL MOIST AIR IN PLACE MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN AROUND 30 PERCENT FOR THE LOWLANDS AND BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH EXCELLENT RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MEANWHILE HAINES INDICES WILL REMAIN LOW TO
VERY LOW ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 73  93  75  93  75 /  30  20  20  20  30
SIERRA BLANCA           69  91  71  92  71 /  30  20  20  30  20
LAS CRUCES              70  93  71  91  70 /  30  20  20  20  40
ALAMOGORDO              70  95  72  95  71 /  30  20  20  30  40
CLOUDCROFT              50  71  52  71  52 /  30  30  20  40  40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   69  94  71  93  70 /  30  20  20  30  40
SILVER CITY             64  85  65  85  62 /  40  40  30  30  40
DEMING                  69  92  70  91  68 /  30  20  20  20  40
LORDSBURG               67  91  69  91  66 /  30  30  30  30  40
WEST EL PASO METRO      74  93  76  92  75 /  30  20  20  20  30
DELL CITY               68  94  69  95  69 /  20  10  20  20  30
FORT HANCOCK            73  94  73  95  73 /  30  20  30  30  30
LOMA LINDA              65  88  66  88  67 /  40  20  20  20  30
FABENS                  71  92  73  93  73 /  40  20  30  20  30
SANTA TERESA            71  92  71  91  71 /  40  20  20  20  30
WHITE SANDS HQ          72  94  74  93  74 /  40  20  20  20  30
JORNADA RANGE           66  94  68  93  67 /  40  20  20  20  40
HATCH                   70  91  73  89  71 /  30  20  20  20  40
COLUMBUS                69  91  70  90  69 /  40  20  20  20  40
OROGRANDE               69  95  70  95  73 /  30  20  20  20  30
MAYHILL                 57  81  59  80  59 /  30  40  20  30  40
MESCALERO               56  85  56  84  56 /  30  30  20  40  40
TIMBERON                57  78  58  78  58 /  30  30  20  30  40
WINSTON                 59  84  61  85  60 /  30  30  30  30  40
HILLSBORO               66  89  68  87  67 /  30  30  30  30  40
SPACEPORT               69  94  69  92  68 /  30  20  20  20  30
LAKE ROBERTS            61  85  62  85  60 /  40  50  30  40  50
HURLEY                  64  87  65  86  63 /  40  30  30  30  40
CLIFF                   65  92  66  92  62 /  30  40  40  30  40
MULE CREEK              58  88  59  88  58 /  30  40  40  40  40
FAYWOOD                 65  86  68  87  64 /  30  30  30  30  40
ANIMAS                  67  89  68  89  66 /  30  30  30  30  40
HACHITA                 68  89  68  89  66 /  30  30  20  20  40
ANTELOPE WELLS          66  86  66  85  66 /  30  30  30  30  40
CLOVERDALE              63  81  64  80  64 /  40  40  30  40  50

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

02/27

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1030 AM MDT MON JUL 22 2013

NMZ401>417-TXZ418>424-231745-
UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-SOUTHERN GILA HIGHLANDS/BLACK RANGE-
SOUTHERN GILA FOOTHILLS/MIMBRES VALLEY-
SOUTHWEST DESERT/LOWER GILA RIVER VALLEY-LOWLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL-
UPLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-
EASTERN BLACK RANGE FOOTHILLS-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES-
NORTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY-SOUTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY/MESILLA VALLEY-
CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN-SOUTHERN TULAROSA BASIN-
WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-OTERO MESA-
WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY-EASTERN/CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY-
NORTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS/HUECO MOUNTAINS-SALT BASIN-
SOUTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS-
RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL PASO/WESTERN HUDSPETH COUNTIES-
RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY-
1030 AM MDT MON JUL 22 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NM AND TX.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER MOST AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE OVER MOUNTAINS WHERE
SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED AND OVER SOUTHERN HIDALGO AND LUNA
COUNTIES WHERE A CLUSTER OF STORMS IS FORECAST TO FORM BY EARLY
EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR IN THIS AREA WITH LOCALIZED
FLOODING POSSIBLE. SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE WITH STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ISOLATED (EASTERN LOWLANDS) AND SCATTERED (MOUNTAINS AND WEST)
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AS A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT OR SURFACE TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE REGION. THIS MAY INCREASE THE FLOOD RISK AT THAT TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ANY OBSERVED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OR FLOODING
TO THIS OFFICE.

MACBLAIN

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>